National Football League

NFL odds: How Tom Brady's return moved Super Bowl futures, MVP lines

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 1:36 p.m. ET

Tom Brady is officially back.

The future Hall of Famer announced his return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday on Twitter, after previously announcing his retirement on February 1.

Besides sending shockwaves through the NFL world, Brady's return significantly impacted next year's Super Bowl odds. The Buccaneers, who were +2800 before Brady's bombshell announcement, moved to +750 after TB12's tweet, tied for the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl in 2023.

Here is the full list of Super Bowl LVII odds after Brady's announcement:

SUPER BOWL 2023 CHAMPION ODDS (via FOX Bet)

How surprising (or not) was Brady's return? Two days after his retirement, FOX Bet set the hypothetical line on Brady unretiring at +750, which implied approximately a 12% chance of Brady playing again. ("No" was -1200.) At that time, the Bucs were the betting favorites at +150, followed by the 49ers (+350), Broncos (+350, before they acquired Russell Wilson) and Steelers.

Brady had also retired as the second -best QB all-time against the spread, trailing only Joe Montana. He's unlikely to fall to third (behind Alex Smith), as the Bucs would need to cover fewer than three times all next season for that to happen. Brady is also unlikely to surpass Montana next season, but it's not impossible; the Bucs would merely have to cover in at least 16 of their 17 games.

Of course, Brady's return didn't just impact the Super Bowl market. He is now +850 to win NFL MVP next season, behind Patrick Mahomes (+600), Josh Allen (+700) and Aaron Rodgers (+800), and just ahead of Justin Herbert (+1000), Matthew Stafford (+1100), Joe Burrow (+1200), Russell Wilson (also +1200) and Dak Prescott (+1400).

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