National Football League

NFL odds: How Tom Brady's return moved Super Bowl futures, MVP lines

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 1:36 p.m. ET

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Tom Brady is officially back.

The future Hall of Famer announced his return to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday on Twitter, after previously announcing his retirement on February 1.

Besides sending shockwaves through the NFL world, Brady's return significantly impacted next year's Super Bowl odds. The Buccaneers, who were +2800 before Brady's bombshell announcement, moved to +750 after TB12's tweet, tied for the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl in 2023.

Here is the full list of Super Bowl LVII odds after Brady's announcement:

SUPER BOWL 2023 CHAMPION ODDS (via FOX Bet)

Buffalo Bills: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Green Bay Packers: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Kansas City Chiefs: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Los Angeles Rams: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Denver Broncos: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
San Francisco 49ers: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Dallas Cowboys: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Tennessee Titans: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Baltimore Ravens: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Los Angeles Chargers: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Cincinnati Bengals: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
New England Patriots: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Arizona Cardinals: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Indianapolis Colts: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
Cleveland Browns: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
New Orleans Saints: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Miami Dolphins: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Minnesota Vikings: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Philadelphia Eagles: +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Washington Commanders: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Carolina Panthers: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Las Vegas Raiders: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Pittsburgh Steelers: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Atlanta Falcons: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Seattle Seahawks: +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total)
Chicago Bears: +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total)
New York Giants: +8500 (bet $10 to win $860 total)
Jacksonville Jaguars: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
New York Jets: +12000 (bet $10 to win $1,210 total)
Detroit Lions: +12500 (bet $10 to win $1,260 total)
Houston Texans: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)

How surprising (or not) was Brady's return? Two days after his retirement, FOX Bet set the hypothetical line on Brady unretiring at +750, which implied approximately a 12% chance of Brady playing again. ("No" was -1200.) At that time, the Bucs were the betting favorites at +150, followed by the 49ers (+350), Broncos (+350, before they acquired Russell Wilson) and Steelers. 

Brady had also retired as the second-best QB all-time against the spread, trailing only Joe Montana. He's unlikely to fall to third (behind Alex Smith), as the Bucs would need to cover fewer than three times all next season for that to happen. Brady is also unlikely to surpass Montana next season, but it's not impossible; the Bucs would merely have to cover in at least 16 of their 17 games.

Of course, Brady's return didn't just impact the Super Bowl market. He is now +850 to win NFL MVP next season, behind Patrick Mahomes (+600), Josh Allen (+700) and Aaron Rodgers (+800), and just ahead of Justin Herbert (+1000), Matthew Stafford (+1100), Joe Burrow (+1200), Russell Wilson (also +1200) and Dak Prescott (+1400).

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