National Football League

NFL odds: Can underdogs continue to cover after Week 10 success?

Updated Nov. 16, 2021 12:23 p.m. ET

It's good to be a dog in the NFL this season.

Week 9 saw a number of underdogs not only cover the spread but win outright, and that trend continued with a vengeance in Week 10. Underdogs went 8-5 against the spread on Sunday, with five of them earning a victory as well.

It's a trend that's come to define the 2021 NFL season. So far this year, underdogs are covering the spread at a 57% rate. Over the past three weeks, seven underdogs of at least seven points have won outright; that's the most in a three-week span since Weeks 8-10 in 2011, according to FOX Sports research. And with the 49ers covering on Monday, this is the first time since 2018 that we've seen at least nine underdogs cover in three consecutive weeks.

FOX Bet trading operations manager Ben Conroy provided some context around the underdogs' performance of late.

"Another great week for the oddsmakers, although not nearly the good luck we had in Week 9," Conroy explained. After all, sports fans generally like to bet on favorites, a strategy that hasn't panned out so far in 2021.

"Our best result of the week was actually Thursday Night Football, with the Ravens getting turned over by the Dolphins," Conroy added. "The Buccaneers were slightly less favored by the customers, with 64% of total business on the spread. These two big favorites losing outright gave us great results on our parlay business." (That makes sense, too, as fans tend to play heavy moneyline favorites in their big Sunday parlays.)

Perhaps the biggest surprises of Week 10 came at the hands of the Carolina Panthers and Washington Football Team, which took down the aforementioned Bucs. The Panthers were 8-point underdogs against the 8-2 Arizona Cardinals but jumped out to a 23-0 lead at halftime. Both teams were without their starting quarterbacks, but it was Carolina’s backup who stole the show: Cam Newton.

Yes, Newton served as the backup to PJ Walker, but his presence was felt immediately with a touchdown on each of his first two touches, one passing and one rushing. It was his 43rd career game with one of each, extending his own NFL record.

Conroy provided some insight into Newton’s performance.

"No one believed Cam Newton could come in and have the impact that he did. The handicap moved from -10 to -6 along with the Kyler Murray news, but 67% of business was still on the Cardinals to cover."

From an odds perspective, the Panthers have fared well in such situations over the past couple seasons. Entering Sunday, they were 4-7 straight up when underdogs of 7-plus points since 2015.

The even bigger surprise came when Washington who squared off with the reigning Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. Ron Rivera’s squad entered as a 10-point underdog in a rematch of last year’s Wild Card playoff and won 29-19.

Since 2009, Washington entered Sunday 1-12 straight up when a double-digit underdog. The lone win came in 2019 versus the Panthers with Dwayne Haskins under center — a victory that came on the road. Before Sunday, the last time Washington won outright at home as a double-digit underdog came in week 5 of 1995.

So what does this mean for next week's games? FOX Bet has three teams slated as double-digit underdogs in the Detroit Lions (at Cleveland Browns), Houston Texans (at Tennessee Titans), and New York Giants (at Buccaneers). Double-digit underdogs are 10-10-1 ATS this season with four outright wins, and 26-23-2 ATS with eight wins when going back to 2020.

Given the trend, we could see all three cover this week and possibly another outright win.

Something else to watch out for as we roll into Week 11 is the Green Bay Packers' hot streak. Matt LaFleur’s team has covered the spread in nine consecutive games, the longest such streak since the 1992 then-San Diego Chargers and the third-longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Green Bay is an NFL-best 9-1 ATS this year, and also tied with the Cardinals and Titans for the best record in the NFL at 8-2.

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