National Football League

NFL odds Week 1: How to bet Patriots-Dolphins, pick

Updated Sep. 11, 2022 12:22 p.m. ET

The Miami Dolphins will try to make history against a Bill Belichick-coached New England Patriots squad when the AFC East Division rivals meet on Sunday.

The Dolphins have won three in a row over the Patriots, sweeping the two-game season series in 2021 for the first time since 2000. Since Belichick took over the Patriots in 2000, he has never lost four in a row against Miami.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Patriots-Dolphins game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

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RELATED: NFL Week 1 lines, odds

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Dolphins -3 (Dolphins favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Patriots cover)
Moneyline: Dolphins -162 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.17 total); Patriots +125 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 46.5 points scored by both teams combined

This will be the third straight season the Patriots and Dolphins meet in the season opener.

New England is 16-6 in Week 1 under Belichick.

The Patriots were 6-2 as the visitor in 2021, the best road record among AFC teams.

The total has hit the under in the over/under (O/U) in nine of New England's past 13 road games.

The Dolphins have won seven of their past nine home games against New England.

The total has hit the under in the O/U in six of Miami's past nine games against New England.

Miami enters the season with a six-game home winning streak after starting 0-3 at Hard Rock Stadium last season. The Dolphins became the first team last season in NFL history to have a seven-game winning streak and a seven-game skid in the same season.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

One of the biggest movers in Week 1? Money pouring in on the Dolphins to take them from -2.5 to -3.5 at home against Bill Belichick.

The move is partially a reaction to New England’s dreadful preseason and the bleak outlook for the offense after losing offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the lack of upgrades at the skill positions. That being said, Miami’s defense built up gaudy stats last year against a slew of backup QBs. Go back and take a look at how they buried third-stringer Ian Book in New Orleans. But be careful taking a side with this one, as Mike McDaniel is making his head coaching debut. And betting against Bill Belichick over the last 15 years has been a costly endeavor.

The best look here is the total going over 46, but just know you are not getting the best number as it opened 44.5.

PICK: Over 46 points (at time of pick) scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Are you ready for the NFL season? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your wagers.

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