National Football League

NFL odds Week 10: Bet on the Eagles to upset the Broncos (and more)

Updated Nov. 12, 2021 6:45 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Stats reveal a lot, but they don't show you everything. Sometimes you have to dig deeper than the surface level. The same applies to gambling trends in the NFL. Some coaches are terrible as favorites (Mike Tomlin!), while others are amazing as underdogs (Sean Payton!). There are also teams with extra rest and Bill Belichick against rookie quarterbacks. Trends come in all shapes and sizes, and they're fun to talk about but aren't predictive.

One NFL gambling trend made the rounds this week that had me raise an eyebrow like The Rock. If you've blindly bet on teams that did not cover the week prior vs. teams that did, you're 39-14-1 ATS or 73%!

The obvious applies — sample size! — and we know all markets tend toward efficiency, so regression is ripe for these games. We've talked around this concept all season in this space — buy low, sell high; no team is as good or bad as they were last week — but perhaps with so much more money flowing into NFL gambling in 2021, this trend is worth looking into closer.

Let's get to my best bets, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Philadelphia (+3 at FOX Bet) at Denver

Professional gamblers have gravitated toward the Eagles every week. They rate highly in several key metrics, such as net yards per play (ninth, ahead of the Cowboys, Packers and Patriots) and DVOA (18th, ahead of the Broncos, Raiders and Bengals). This game also fits the above trend, as the Eagles didn't cover at home last week against the Chargers, losing on a last-second field goal; the Broncos crushed the Cowboys as 10.5-point underdogs.

Denver is very susceptible to being run on — 23rd in the NFL — and the Eagles are fourth in the NFL in rushing efficiency.

Every loss the Eagles have suffered this year has come against a highly regarded team. The Chiefs and the 49ers, and division leaders Dallas, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas and the Chargers.

Before you scoff at the first two, the Chiefs still have top 10 Super Bowl odds, and the 49ers are ninth in overall DVOA, but they've just been incredibly unlucky with injuries again.

Pick: Eagles (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

New Orleans (+3 at FOX Bet) at Tennessee

I wanted to make a case for the Saints here because I can't stop myself from betting against the Titans (and losing). Tennessee is 7-2 ATS and 5-0 ATS as an underdog. But, being favored here is a different animal — and favored against Sean Payton carries even greater risk.

The Payton ATS numbers are staggering: as an underdog since 2003 (44-25-2); on the road off a loss (26-10). The problem is, the Alvin Kamara injury news is a killer. We're talking about a Saints offense that struggled big-time last week without Jameis Winston (11 dropped passes), and now their best weapon is reportedly doubtful? Yes, you can argue running backs aren't worth that much to the point spread, and maybe Payton dials up a hefty dose of Taysom Hill and Mark Ingram here. But, still.

As some protection from getting beat by the Titans (again!), the best play has to be the first half under in what definitely will be a defensive battle.

The Titans have played out of their minds for four straight games, especially on defense. Maybe that's why Jeffery Simmons (three sacks vs. the Rams) and Harold Landry (9 sacks, tied for third in the NFL) are dinged up and haven't practiced this week.

I'm counting on this game to start slow.

Pick: Under 21.5 points scored in the first half by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Carolina (+10.5 at FOX Bet) at Arizona

I'm hard-pressed to find a side this week fewer people will bet on. The public seems to be gravitating to the Jets (no thanks) and nibbling on the Falcons (hard pass), but nobody wants anything to do with Carolina.

Understandably so, as the Panthers lost their starting center, quarterback, and maybe their best edge rusher in the loss to the Patriots.

They signed a QB in Cam Newton who hasn't played a down all season, and by all accounts, if he can't go, P.J. Walker will start against the 8-1 Cardinals. Whether it's Colt McCoy, Shady McCoy, or the Real McCoy, everyone will bet Arizona. But this is a horrible sandwich spot for the Cardinals.

This game is a week after an emotional win with the backup QB against rival San Francisco, and next week, they travel to Seattle for another massive game. It'd be easy to overlook Carolina, which has lost five of six.

Hold your nose and fire, friends.

Pick: Carolina (+10.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points (or win outright)

Four-team, 7-point teaser at FOX Bet:

Teasers have been as automatic as Justin Tucker this season, but even the legends occasionally miss.

Dallas -9 to -2

I came close to pulling the trigger on Dallas to cover the big number, but teasing them under a field goal makes more sense.

The Dallas defense got embarrassed by Teddy Bridgewater, and there's no reason Matt Ryan won't be able to have some success, too. Bridgewater led Denver to 8-for-15 on third down, and the Broncos held the ball for 41 minutes, racking up 407 yards of offense. It was their best performance of the season and the worst from the Dallas defense.

I fully expect a bounce back from Dan Quinn's unit against his former team, although it's worth monitoring the Randy Gregory injury (trip to the IR?) and the health of left tackle Tyron Smith, as well.

Seattle +3 to +10

Part of this is about grabbing Seattle if Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers cannot return from COVID-19. If Jordan Love starts against Russell Wilson, Seattle will go off as the favorite, and you've got a great ticket in your pocket.

The Packers are 3-0 ATS at home, but those wins came against Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, and Taylor Heinicke. This is Green Bay's third straight "big game" (Cardinals, Chiefs), so their injured defense may struggle.

Tampa Bay -9 to -2

There's concern that Tampa will be without Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, which could be big trouble for Tom Brady on the road. The road has been unkind to Tampa this year, as they're 0-4 ATS.

Last year, Washington's defense was a top-10 unit, but this season, they've given up 28 plus points in five games and currently rank 30th in DVOA. The only defense that has slowed Tampa down is Bill Belichick's Patriots.

Keep in mind, Brady's Bucs didn't lose after the bye week last season because of the time he put in.

Minnesota +3 to +10

Betting on the Vikings is hazardous to your health. All five of their losses have come by seven points or fewer, and every one of those games came down to a final possession or overtime. You've been warned.

Minnesota's defense was on the field for 89 plays last week in Baltimore; now they have a cross-country trip. The problem is, the Chargers' weakness — run defense — will be exploited by Dalvin Cook. Also, LA's secondary was down to practice squad players last week against the Eagles.

Both teams play close games, and if I can get double-digits with a team that is possibly equal to an up-and-down Chargers team, I've got to take it.

JMAC's Teaser:

Cowboys -2
Seahawks +10
Bucs -2
Vikings +10

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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