National Football League

NFL odds Week 11: Why the Broncos will cover, other early best bets

Updated Nov. 17, 2022 7:51 p.m. ET

It's a week of divisional bouts and teams trying to either build on a streak or snap a skid in the NFL.

Can a win spark a second-half run for the Denver Broncos or Las Vegas Raiders, who meet for the second time this season? Will the Philadelphia Eagles bounce back from their first loss of the season with a win against the Indianapolis Colts? Will the Washington Commanders suffer a letdown against the Houston Texans?

Here are my best bets for Week 11 of the NFL season (odds via FOX Bet).

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Raiders at Broncos (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Las Vegas Raiders are a flaming-hot dumpster fire right now, and an air tanker couldn’t drop enough water on this franchise to stop the flames.

After an embarrassing loss to the Colts on Sunday, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr held an emotional press conference where he openly questioned if the entire team was committed. Shortly after that press conference, we got word that Vegas sat three of their defensive players for an "in-house matter that wasn’t football related."

Lastly, head coach Josh McDaniels, whose team is 2-7, got the dreaded vote of confidence from Raiders owner Mark Davis. That’s the surest sign he’s not safe as the team's head coach.

On the field, the Raiders don’t pass protect or stop the run. The offense is 0-6 with the ball in their hands to end the game. They just aren’t a very good team.

Granted, the Broncos aren’t great either, but they have an elite defense. The Las Vegas offense is just about league average, so I expect the Broncos defense to shut down the Raiders scoring.

While the Broncos offense is one of the worst in the league, they are facing a Raiders defense that’s equally putrid. This is enough for me to back Denver under a field goal here.

PICK: Broncos (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Commanders hand Jalen Hurts, Eagles their first loss of the NFL season in Week 10

The Washington Commanders handed the Philadelphia Eagles their first loss of the season last night; Shannon Sharpe and Skip Bayless react.

Eagles at Colts (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Philadelphia Eagles are no longer undefeated after losing on Monday Night Football to the Washington Commanders 32-21. It was the first game this season where the Eagles were outcoached and outmatched physically at the line of scrimmage. I will wager on that not happening again on Sunday, especially in the first half.

The Eagles entered the game Monday Night 7-1 against the spread in the first half of games with an average first-half point differential of 12. After coming out flat against the Commanders, the Eagles will rebound against the Colts on Sunday. They are a team built on the pride of their line units. They will want to start fast on Sunday to get back on the winning track. Also, the Colts are not good, even with a win on Sunday against the putrid Raiders. The Colts rank 31st in offensive expected points added. Their offensive line has been generally poor this season, and the Eagles should be able to take advantage of that.

The Eagles coaching staff has outcoached most opponents, and after failing to do that against their division rival Monday, it will return on Sunday in Indy.

Give me Philadelphia to cover in the first half.

PICK: Eagles -3 1st half at FOX Bet

Commanders at Texans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The only wager in this game is fading the new NFL darlings. The Washington Commanders just beat the previously undefeated Eagles on Monday Night Football and are riding high with positive emotion. Now they are on the road on a short week and I think you wager on a letdown spot.

Davis Mills has started 21 games in the NFL and the Houston Texans quarterback has not been a favorite in any of those games. Mills is 10-10 against the spread as a starting quarterback so taking him, and the Texans, to cover the full game spread is worrisome.

I'm taking the Texans to cover the first half before Washington's better team wins and covers this game.

PICK: Texans +1.5 1st half at FOX Bet