National Football League

NFL odds Week 11: Chiefs over Cowboys is the bet you need to make (and more)

Updated Nov. 19, 2021 7:05 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

I can't believe we are already into the back half of the NFL season.

There are some great matchups this weekend, so let's start with America's Game of the Week, with odds via FOX Bet.

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

I'm sure you haven't heard this before. This season, the Chiefs' offense has struggled against two-high safety looks, either the standard Cover 2 or Cover 4 (Quarters).

But, after a month of struggles, the Chiefs' offense finally broke through with a big game against the Raiders. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns while the offense looked like it had for three-plus years. The Chiefs had success because the Raiders are a single-high coverage team. I bring this up because the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City's upcoming opponent, also employ a similar defense.

The Cowboys are only in a two-high shell, whether in Cover 2 or 4, 23% of the time. That's just below league average. The Cowboys run the fourth most man coverage, which is NOT what to run against the Chiefs' offensive weapons. And I know what you're saying. Well, the Cowboys should just run more Cover 2 this game, right? Not so fast.

Cover 2 techniques are vastly different from single-high techniques, which the Cowboys are good at. So, do you stick with your defense which is ranked seventh in DVOA, or run an alternate defense you're not as good at while hoping the Chiefs have no answers for it? I'd run what we're good at and hope my players on defense can make plays. So, basically, the Chiefs will score points in this matchup. Which leads to the big question of can the Cowboys keep up?

On paper, yes, they can. However, if left tackle Tyron Smith is out, it makes it more difficult. Cowboys are 79-61 when he starts but only 14-15 when he's out. That is a striking difference, and the Chiefs are hopeful they can take advantage if he's not playing.

The Chiefs' defense was poor through the first five weeks, allowing 32.6 points per game. However, over their last five games, they've allowed only 15 points per game. They won't be holding this Cowboys offense to just 15 points, but if they can keep them under 28, they have a chance to cover.

I like the Chiefs in this contest.

PICK: Chiefs (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

It's simple. A healthy Arizona Cardinals team is better than the Seattle Seahawks. The problem is the Cardinals are not healthy right now.

It appears quarterback Kyler Murray is back this weekend, but what about DeAndre Hopkins? The stud wide receiver has been out with a hamstring injury, and those are notorious for taking weeks or longer to heal. They've already put Chase Edmonds on injured reserve, and their rushing defense has struggled mightily since J.J. Watt has been out of the lineup.

The Seahawks defense has improved through the season, only allowing 15 points per game over their last four. It will be a challenge to slow down Murray if he's healthy, but a limited Kyler without Hopkins makes this Cardinals offense tough to back.

More than anything, I'm taking the Seahawks because they are a veteran-led, prideful team who just looked awful on offense last weekend. Quarterback Russell Wilson returned from a finger injury — if you followed on social media, you'd think his leg was amputated — and looked terrible against the Packers. Maybe rehabbing 19 hours a day is just too much. I digress.

Wilson has never lost three games in a row, and I do not expect it to start now against a Cardinals offense that's beaten up and a defense that can't stop the run.

PICK: Seahawks (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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