NFL odds Week 11: Why Patrick Mahomes will cover against Chargers, best trends
Week 11 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to keep giving you the edges needed to make a profit!
Last week’s piece highlighted a few winners we foresaw on top of a few shockers. First, Tom Brady continued his perfect streak in international games, improving to 4-0 against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) with a win and cover against the Seattle Seahawks in Munich. Additionally, Kliff Kingsbury continued his dominant streak as a road underdog – now 16-5-1 ATS (76.2%) and 14-8 SU (63.6%) in such situations after a win against the Los Angeles Rams. However, to our surprise, the Philadelphia Eagles did not cover as double-digit favorites against the Washington Commanders, Josh Allen played for the Buffalo Bills and lost as a home favorite against the Minnesota Vikings and the Carolina Panthers got their revenge in the second meeting against the Atlanta Falcons!
As always, we did a deep dive into historical regular-season data to identify the best trends for the upcoming week. We also looked at team- and player-specific trends, which should help inform you on who to bet on this week.
Let's jump in and have some fun!
Are Tom Brady's Bucs back after returning to first place in NFC South?
Patrick Mahomes is incredible as a six- to 10-point favorite
The header says it all here, as MVP front-runner Patrick Mahomes is a 6.5-point favorite this Sunday night at the Los Angeles Chargers. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is a whopping 16-10 ATS (61.5%) and 25-1 SU (96.2%) as a six- to 10-point favorite when starting in those situations.
Mahomes has also won five straight Sunday night football starts (including the postseason), going 4-1 ATS (80%) in those games. The game will be held at SoFi Stadium, but Mahomes has also thrived on the road against the Chargers, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS (75%) when playing them away from Arrowhead. Overall on the road, he’s 23-13-1 ATS (63.9%) in his career, as well as dominant 9-4 ATS (69.2%) and 13-0 SU when playing AFC West opponents on the road.
Another nugget point in the Chiefs' direction is the Chargers' recent struggles as a home underdog. Since 2015, Los Angeles is 4-9 ATS (30.8%) and 3-10 SU (23.1%) when not favored as the home team.
Patriots should continue dominance against Jets
The New England Patriots host the New York Jets this Sunday as 3.5-point favorites at FOX Bet. We pointed this trend out in Week 8, and we were correct in picking Bill Belichick’s squad. The story is the same for Week 11, and this time the Pats will be at home in Gillette Stadium.
Below is a recap of all the data that highlights New England’s dominance against New York under Belichick:
- Patriots are 74-58-2 ATS (56.1%) and 97-37 SU (72.4%) vs. AFC East opponents under Bill Belichick, with the Under hitting in 70 of those games (52.2%)
- Patriots are 25-20 ATS (55.6%) and 35-10 SU (77.8%) vs. the Jets under Bill Belichick
- Mac Jones is 9-6-1 ATS (60%) and 11-5 SU (68.8%) as a starter when a favorite in his career
- Jets are 5-12-1 ATS (29.4%) and 3-15 SU (16.7%) on the road vs. AFC East opponents since 2016
- Jets are 3-7 ATS (30%) and 1-9 SU (10%) when coming off a bye since 2012
Historical data points toward Giants covering against Lions
Maybe the season's biggest surprise has been the rampant success of the New York Giants. With a win last week, Brian Daboll’s squad has improved to 7-2 SU (77.8%), also sporting that record ATS. That’s the Giants' best ATS start since putting up the same record in 2008.
This week they are three-point favorites against the Detroit Lions at FOX Bet. We took a dive into the data over the last 23 seasons and found some strong trends. Since 1999, teams that enter a game with a 7-2 record AND are home favorites are 15-13-1 ATS (53.6%) and 25-4 SU (86.2%) in their following game. When you take that same situation but look at the teams that were only favored between one and 6.5 points, they went 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) and 17-2 SU (89.5%) in the next matchup.
Another point worth mentioning is the rate at which the Giants have hit the Under at home. Since 2020, New York has hit the Under in 17 of 21 games (81%).
The Lions have also struggled as road underdogs under Dan Campbell, going 6-6 ATS (50%) and 1-11 SU (8.3%) – with the Under hitting in eight of those 12 games (66.7%).
Bills should bounce back against Browns
Last week we picked Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to cover as favorites against the Vikings. The result was a Minnesota overtime win in what was arguably the most entertaining game of the season. That being said, the numbers point towards the Bills bouncing back this week against the Cleveland Browns, with FOX Bet tabbing them as 7.5-point favorites.
Buffalo allowed 33 points in the home loss against Minnesota last week. With Josh Allen under center, the Bills are 8-2-1 ATS (80%) after allowing 28 or more points in their previous game. Since 2017, the Under has hit 85.7% of the time when they play at home after allowing 30 or more points in their previous home game.
Sean McDermott also has various trends pointing towards betting on him and the Bills this weekend, as Buffalo is 12-6-2 ATS (66.7%) and 17-3 SU (85%) as 7-plus-point favorites under his tenure. He’s also 17-11-3 ATS (60.7%) and 25-6 SU (80.6%) as a home favorite in his head coaching career. Furthermore, the Browns have struggled away from Cleveland, losing seven of their last eight road games.
Titans on historic cover streak
This last one is more of a nugget that we wanted to put on your radar rather than a trend. After an 0-2 start to the season, the Tennessee Titans have covered seven straight games, with wins in six of them. Not only is it the longest cover streak in the league right now, but it is also the first time they’ve covered seven straight games since 2008. There have only been six teams in the last decade to cover in eight straight games, with last year’s Green Bay Packers being the last team to do so.
The Titans are also 12-8 ATS (60%) and 10-10 SU (50%) as a road underdog under Mike Vrabel. However, it’s worth mentioning that Green Bay has thrived in Thursday night games, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) and 10-5 SU (66.7%) in those matchups since 2010.
So are you ready to place some NFL Week 11 bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers!
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