National Football League

NFL odds Week 12: How to bet Buccaneers-Browns, pick

Updated Nov. 25, 2022 2:25 p.m. ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel north to play the Cleveland Browns for a Week 12 NFL matchup.

The Buccaneers are coming off a bye, while the Browns lost to the Buffalo Bills, 31-23.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Buccaneers-Browns game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Buccaneers -3.5 (Buccaneers favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Browns cover)
Moneyline: Buccaneers -182 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.49 total); Browns +140 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $24 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 42.5 points scored by both teams combined

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

As mentioned in this very article two weeks ago, the Bucs have massive splits with and without Akiem Hicks on the field. This isn’t a shock, as the Bears had massive splits for years when he was in the lineup.

They move from an NFL-average run defense with Hicks off the field (4.8 YPC, 40% success) to the NFL’s No. 1 run defense by far (3.1 YPC, 21% success) when Hicks is on the field. And after missing Weeks 3 through 8, Hicks returned in a win vs. the Rams.

Hicks was instrumental in the win against the Seahawks in Germany, registering a season-high four tackles while clogging up the middle of the line and holding Kenneth Walker III to a season-low 1.7 YPC with a season-low longest run of only five yards.

Last week against a Bills defense that was on the ropes with terrible travel and health situations, the Browns averaged a season-low 3.1 YPC, but it was even worse if you strip out Jacoby Brissett’s long run.

The Browns RBs gained just 51 yards on 19 rushes for 2.7 YPC. They averaged -0.68 yards before contact per rush. All of those numbers were season-lows.

What happened? The Browns lost starting C Ethan Pocic on the first drive of the game with a knee injury, and from that point onward, they couldn’t run the ball at all. This makes sense because C is a highly underrated position and Pocic ranked second in run-blocking grades for Centers at PFF. In fact, he’s the second overall graded center. Losing him is a massive loss in this game for two reasons: first, the defensive line the Bucs bring to town, and second, the weather, which is expected to feature 20 mph winds with gusts into the low 30s. Running will be even more important.

With Hicks, the Bucs rank as the NFL’s No. 1 run defense in EPA/rush to RBs. The Browns rank 32nd. And they allow the 2nd most yards before contact per rush.

Pick via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

I think the Bucs are about to get hot.

Their schedule is mostly a cakewalk the rest of the regular season, and they’ll probably be underdogs once [at San Francisco]. Tampa Bay’s defense is the healthiest it has been all year, and I trust that Todd Bowles can stop Cleveland quarterback Jacoby Brissett from mounting an offensive assault.

The Browns are frisky, but they keep finding ways to lose games. They only have three wins this season – Jets, Steelers, Bengals – and I don’t think that number will increase against the Brady Bunch. Plus, the bye week should help the Bucs' once-mangled offensive line round into form.

Give me Tampa Bay by a touchdown.

PICK: Buccaneers (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points