National Football League

NFL odds Week 12: How to bet Ravens-Jaguars, pick

Updated Nov. 25, 2022 11:57 a.m. ET

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The Baltimore Ravens are traveling to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars for a Week 12 NFL matchup. 

The Ravens are flying high after a 13-3 win over the Carolina Panthers, while the Jaguars are a well-rested team after a bye week. 

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Ravens-Jaguars game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

Dak Prescott threw for 261 yards and 2 TDs in the 28-20 win over the Giants

CeeDee Lamb & Dalton Schultz combined for 10 catches, 137 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Dallas Cowboys win.

Ravens at Jaguars (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Ravens -3.5 (Bills favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Jaguars cover)
Moneyline: Ravens -213 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14.69 total); Jaguars +160 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $26 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 43.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

As big a fan of Lamar Jackson as I am, it is difficult to look at this offense and suggest he isn’t contributing in some capacity to their struggles. 

The Ravens have rattled off four straight wins, with three of the four coming vs. the lowly NFC South. But Jackson hasn’t recorded over 7.5 YPA in any game since Week 3. Since that win vs. the Patriots, Jackson is averaging just 6.1 YPA and 63% completions with just six touchdowns and five interceptions while taking 17 sacks in seven games. 

Baltimore just doesn’t have the receiving weapons. Mark Andrews is playing, but he is less than 100%. To show you how desperate this team has been at skill positions to support Lamar Jackson, since Week 6, the Ravens leading receiver is Demarcus Robinson, and the leading rusher is Kenyan Drake.   

Both of these players were cut by the Raiders in August. 

While they’ve ranked above average in pressure rate throughout the season, since Week 6, the Jaguars have improved further. They rank No. 6 in pressure rate despite blitzing at the 10th lowest rate.   

And since Week 6, Jacksonville has ranked top-10 in both EPA/RB rush and yards before contact per rush. 

The Jaguars have extra rest to help game plan for Lamar Jackson’s run game coming off their bye. When teams play Lamar with over seven days rest, the Under is 7-4, going under an average 45.5 point total by over three points per game. 

Jacksonville’s primary concern is Mark Andrews, as the Jaguars rank No. 32 in EPA/att and No. 30 in YPA on targets to opposing TEs. Last week, Andrews finally was back to running a standard number of routes, but he wasn’t nearly as explosive. He averaged a season-low 2.0 yards after the catch, and his longest reception was only 16 yards, his second-lowest total of the season. 

The Jaguars at home have just been an Under goldmine. Since 2018, games in Jacksonville with a total of 48 or lower have gone Under in 19 of 27 games (70%). 

Since 2018, when the Jaguars host a team with a winning record after week 8, the Jags are 5-2 ATS (71%), and the Under is 6-1 (86%). Opposing teams have gone under their team total in 6 of 7 games, and the final scores in these games have been a Jaguars loss, 17-14.   

Bet the Under. 

PICK: Under 43.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

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NFL - Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - 11/27/2022

Warren Sharp