National Football League

NFL odds Week 12: How to bet Saints-49ers, pick

Updated Nov. 25, 2022 2:29 p.m. ET

The New Orleans Saints hope to continue their recent success against the San Francisco 49ers in an NFC interdivision game Sunday in California.

The 49ers lead the all-time series 49-27-2, but the Saints have won two of the past three contests, including a 27-13 decision on Nov. 15, 2020. New Orleans and San Francisco were NFC West Division rivals from 1970-2001 until the Saints joined the NFC South.

Here's everything you need to know about the Saints-49ers, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under. insights and expert pick (all odds via FOX Bet):

Jimmy Garoppolo's four-TD game leads 49ers to blowout win vs. Cardinals

The San Francisco 49ers dominated the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City, 38-10.

Saints at 49ers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Point spread: 49ers -9.5 (49ers favored to win by more than 9.5 points, otherwise Saints cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -455 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.20 total); Saints +280 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $38 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 43.5 points scored by both teams combined

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The 49ers are healthy. And when the 49ers are healthy, their roster is one of the most complete in all of football.

Jimmy Garoppolo is (once again) leading the NFL in YAC/completion at 7.3 yards after the catch per completion.

A ranking of the team with the most YAC per reception, by year, over the last five years:

2022: SF
2021: SF
2020: SF
2019: SF
2018: SF

The 2022 team is averaging more YAC/reception than in any of those prior seasons.

Garoppolo is quietly having one of his best seasons as a pro. In addition to averaging the most YAC, he’s…

No. 2 in completions of 10-plus yards
No. 3 in EPA/att
No. 4 in third-down conversion rate
No. 5 in first-down rate
No. 6 in success rate

But here’s the thing: out of 38 QBs with 100-plus attempts this year, Jimmy G ranks 30th in air yards per attempt. That’s part of the reason he has so much YAC.

He ranks No. 34 of 38 in percentage of attempts that travel 10-plus yards.

Look at the Saints defensive pass splits by targeted distance:

Over 10 yards downfield: No. 6 in EPA/att, No. 5 in YPA, No. 11 in YAC/reception
Fewer than 10 yards downfield: No. 28 in EPA/att, No. 24 in YPA, No. 23 in YAC/reception

This defense is top-5 to top-10 when teams try to throw the ball downfield. But they are bottom-five to bottom-10 when teams throw the ball short.

The Saints rank No. 30 in pressure rate, and they rarely blitz. That’s perfect for Jimmy G.

And on the ground, the Saints are getting moved off the line and allow the fourth-most yards before contact per early-down RB-rush this season.

Over the last two weeks, the Saints played teams that could not run the ball on the season (Steelers and Rams, both ranked bottom-10).

The Rams and Steelers rank bottom-five in yards before contact per RB-rush.

The 49ers rank No. 2.

This is a bad matchup on the ground and in the air for the Saints defense.

Pick via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

The Niners are getting stronger by the minute, which naturally means their point spreads are getting larger and larger.

Circa Sports’ Jeff Benson tweeted the other day that San Francisco is the NFC’s highest power-rated team and I wouldn’t disagree. At full strength, that roster is absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball and the addition of Christian McCaffrey made it even more dangerous.

But the market’s love for San Francisco makes these lines a smidge too high. Bookmakers are essentially making you pay a "tax" to bet the Niners. This true line is probably 7 or 7.5, but because the books respect them and they know you’re going to bet them, inflation kicks in.

I’ll plug my nose and take the points.

PICK: Saints (+9.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points (or win outright)

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