National Football League

NFL odds Week 13: Steelers over Ravens is the bet you need to make (and more)

Updated Dec. 3, 2021 1:15 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

I love the NFL and I watch all the games. However, this is a challenging gambling week. Sometimes there's no edge, or the correct play is to take bad teams with the points. Week 13 of the NFL season is one of those weekends.

Let's jump into my best bets, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

This game is a prime spot to back a divisional home dog in the Steelers.

Yes, the Steelers looked awful against the Bengals, and they are not a good football team right now. But this Steelers team is a prideful bunch. After that embarrassing performance against the Bengals, I expect Pittsburgh to play much better against their rivals in Baltimore at home.

Mike Tomlin hasn't been a home underdog often, but his teams have covered 81% of the games when he's been in this spot.

It's worth mentioning that even though the Ravens are 8-3, they are probably closer to a .500 level team. They had close wins against the Chiefs, Lions, Colts, Vikings and Bears, and all of these games could've resulted in losses.

Baltimore ranks 17th in offensive DVOA and 18th in defense. The Ravens are very beat up, but luckily have Lamar Jackson to make up the difference. That won't cut it this weekend.

I'm not sure Baltimore is a team that should be more than a field goal favorite on the road against a division opponent with a historically great record as a dog. So give me the Steelers!

PICK: Steelers (+4.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Andy Reid is 19-3 off a bye, and the Chiefs have won 11 straight games against the Broncos. Kansas City will win, but laying 10 points is too rich for my blood.

However, I think the under is the play here. Denver is 9-2 toward the under this season. And, the Chiefs have gone under in five of their last six games as their defense has played much better with lineup changes, scheme changes and their overall health improving.

Offensively, the Chiefs have appeared to overcome the slight bump they had earlier this season, but the unit is still not scoring at a high clip. During the Chiefs' four-game win streak, they've scored over 20 points only once. And while the Broncos defense isn't quite what it has been the last few seasons, they do limit scoring of their opponents — fourth in the NFL in defensive points per drive.

The Broncos want to run the ball and eat up the clock, so this is a perfect spot for the under.

Lastly, five of the last six games in this series have gone under.

This game should be a slugfest, give me the under.

PICK: Under 47 total points combined at FOX Bet

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

This prop bet does feel too easy, but let's have at it.

Joe Mixon had 123 yards against the Raiders two weeks ago and he followed it up with 165 yards last weekend against the Steelers. The star running back has taken off the last two weeks because the Bengals have finally featured the run game more often after their bye.

The Chargers rush defense ranks 32nd in overall efficiency and 28th in rush yards allowed per attempt. If the Bengals get off to a fast start and have a second-half lead, they will pound the rock. Mixon will go over this mark.

PICK: Joe Mixon over 86.5 rushing yards at FOX Bet

Bonus Picks!

How about a nice three-pack of divisional home dogs? Yes, please.

I can't make a football case for taking Atlanta, Detroit and Houston to win, but I can make a wagering argument for these three big underdogs.

All three teams are divisional home dogs getting almost no public love. These are types of games where you make money!

Hold your nose and take the Falcons, Lions and Texans with the points. All three teams are getting over a touchdown!

PICK: Falcons (+10.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points (or win outright)

PICK: Lions (+7 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)

PICK: Texans (+9 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 9 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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