National Football League

NFL odds Week 13: Why Tennessee Titans will cover, other best bets

Published Nov. 30, 2022 2:46 p.m. ET

There are multiple seasons within an NFL season.

There’s the excitement of opening weekend and the season's first month. Then the league settles into a routine until Thanksgiving weekend. After all the turkey settles and the results become final, the NFL world turns our attention to the ever-changing playoff picture. Games start to feel more important, and the intensity of the league gradually increases each Sunday. We are finally at that the point of the season, which will make this weekend's slate even more exciting.

With that in mind, here are my favorite wagers of the weekend (with all odds via FOX Bet):

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Titans at Eagles (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

I’m taking the road Titans to bounce back after not covering this past weekend in a home loss to the Bengals.

While I don’t love how the Titans can’t score any points, the rest of this game matches up well for them. The Eagles rushing defense is ranked 24th in the league, and the Titans should be able to exploit this for some offensive success.

The Titans need to run the ball well because the Eagles defense can stop the pass and will not be scared by Ryan Tannehill. Derrick Henry only rushed for 38 yards last weekend, and after a bad performance, we often see an explosion in his production the following week. Additionally, the coaching staff will challenge the Titans' offensive line will to improve on last week's poor performance.

Since a Week 2 loss to the Bills, the Titans defense has not allowed more than 22 points in a game. That includes allowing 20 to both the Chiefs and Bengals, two of the better offenses in the NFL.

The Titans' defense is tough, physical and attacking. They are first in rushing defense DVOA, and their defense should feel good in this matchup against a run-heavy Eagles offense. The Eagles have had issues recently when facing dominant rushing defenses, struggling to produce points against Washington and Indianapolis.

The combination of the Titans rushing attack and their rushing defense will get them to cover in this contest.

Also, the Titans are 17-7 against the spread as an underdog of 3 or more points under Mike Vrabel.

PICK: Titans (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)

Seahawks at Rams (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Rams season is over.

Matthew Stafford is hurt, Cooper Kupp is hurt, Aaron Donald is hurt, and the Rams are not competitive at all. They’ve lost five straight games where they failed to score more than 20 points and have lost by at least a touchdown in four of them.

The Rams host the Seahawks, and Seattle needs a win badly. The Seahawks started fast at 6-3 but have dropped two straight games. It would seem easy to take them to cover the 7.5 in this spot, but I’m not sure they are that trustworthy.

Every Public Joe will be wagering on the Hawks, and I don't blame them. But often, the wagers that seem too "easy" are the ones that sour your Sunday.

I think you put Seattle in a teaser. Take the number from 7.5 down to 1.5. You can pair the Seahawks with the Broncos and Lions to form my favorite teaser for the weekend.

Chiefs at Bengals (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Bengals defeated the Chiefs twice last season, including a thrilling come-from-behind win in the AFC championship game in Kansas City. Both of the Bengals wins followed the same pattern. The Chiefs score early, then the Bengals come storming back for the win.

And based on the results of both teams after 12 NFL weekends, I’m willing to wager on that again.

The bet I like in this game is the Chiefs first-half team total of over 13.5 points. For starters, the Chiefs average 14.6 points in the first half of games, while the Bengals allow far more points in the first half than the second. Cincy is an outstanding second-half defense, only allowing 7.7 points per second half.

Another reason I like the Chiefs to score early and often is they’ve been waiting to play this game since the clock struck zero in their championship game loss. We will see a special Andy Reid game plan and a hyper-focused Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs can often float through games against poor teams like they did Sunday against the Rams. But they are hard to stop when they are locked in, like against Tampa and San Francisco.

Now, I can’t give out the Chiefs full game side because I respect the Bengals' ability to score points and clearly stop the opponent in the second half of games. There’s too much unknown there. But what I do know is the Chiefs will want to score early and often, and I believe they will. Look for them to get at least two touchdowns in the first half of this game.

PICK: Chiefs 1st half team total Over 13.5 points scored at FOX Bet

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Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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