National Football League

NFL odds Week 13: Best bets, including why you should back Jets, 49ers

Published Nov. 29, 2022 3:37 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

We have now reached the last third of the 2022 NFL season. Where has the time gone?

Hopefully, you had a great holiday that also rewarded you with a couple of dollars off any wagers you made in a jam-packed football weekend. If you followed my Jets play, you got at least one winner, and yes, I'm flying high with the Jets again this weekend. Why stop when the burners are hot?

Also on this week's slate are the 49ers, who are in a powerhouse matchup against the Miami Dolphins!

So without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 13 (with odds via FOX Bet).

Mike White, Zach Wilson battle for Jets starting QB spot

Craig Carton and Greg Jennings share their thoughts on the New York Jets Week 12 win.

Jets at Vikings (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

This line opened at Vikings +3.5 and was quickly bet down to 3.

The Vikings defense is not good by any metric, as they rank 23rd overall and 27th against the pass. They just let the struggling Mac Jones go 28-of-39 for 382 yards in easily his best game of the season.

Yes, Mike White will have more success at QB this game. Look for him to build off his 315 yards and three TDs — in the rain! — against the Bears. This total seems low, as the Jets are fully healthy at receiver, with Corey Davis back to join Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore — who is finally out of the doghouse.

The Jets rank fifth in the NFL in pressure rate, and before you shout, "The Patriots were first!," New England has to blitz to generate pressure, while the Jets do not. The Jets rank 31st in blitz percentage and can still get after the QB. That is a big difference.

Sauce Gardner against Justin Jefferson is appointment television. Look for a fun game full of fireworks.

PICK: Over 45.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
PICK: Jets (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Commanders at Giants (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Taylor Heinicke is now 5-1 as a starter and 9-1 ATS (against the spread) in his last 10 starts.

Washington is surging, playing a completely different style of football than they did under Carson Wentz. The Commanders' strategy is simple: We’re going to control the ball – they lead the NFL in time of possession since Heinicke took over – and do that on the ground behind rookie Brian Robinson.

The Giants started 6-1 but have lost three of four, with the lone victory coming against the worst team in the league, Houston. The next three weeks will determine New York’s season: Against Washington, vs. Philadelphia and at Washington.

The total has come down because the Giants are inept offensively and can only win on the ground with Saquon Barkley. You’re not getting the best number, but this might be the first to 17 – likely Washington – wins.

PICK: Under 40.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Dolphins at 49ers (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

This is a fascinating matchup between perhaps the league’s best offense (Miami) and arguably the NFL’s toughest defense (49ers).

If that wasn’t enough, Miami rookie coach Mike McDaniel heads back to San Francisco, where he was the offensive coordinator last year.

The biggest injury news will be Dolphins left tackle Terron Armstead, who left the Houston game with a pec injury. On the nine plays after he left, Tua Tagovailoa was sacked four times. Nick Bosa (11.5 sacks) is licking his chops.

San Francisco cornerback Charvarius Ward is having a terrific season – Pro Football Focus grades him as the eighth-best CB this year – and he’ll likely match up against his former teammate in K.C., Tyreek Hill.

Since the 49ers were embarrassed by the Chiefs, 44-23, they haven’t allowed a point in the second half in four games. I like the Niners in this big matchup.

PICK: 49ers (-3 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to win by more than 3 points

Saints at Buccaneers (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

Despite being a disappointing 4-8, the Saints are miraculously only 1.5 games behind Tampa in the putrid NFC South. The last time these two teams met, it was close until the fourth quarter, and then there was an ejection and an explosion of points by the Bucs.

Tampa’s playcalling leaves much to be desired, or maybe the Bucs just don’t have a good grip on what they are, as Tom Brady loves to play with veterans, but the offense knows the young players are the future. Worse yet, his best offensive lineman, Tristan Wirfs, is out for three-to-four weeks due to an ankle injury.

The Saints have been hammered by injuries on both sides of the ball, but in this divisional battle, I’m looking at the 'dog and the Under.

PICK: Saints (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
PICK: Under 40 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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