National Football League

NFL odds Week 15: Bills over Panthers is the bet you need to make (and more)

Updated Dec. 18, 2021 1:22 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

This NFL weekend is tough to handicap with COVID-19 and injuries altering rosters. However, I've gone through the slate and found some gems we can wager on.

Let's dive into my best bets, with odds via FOX Bet.

Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

In a week full of the slinkiest lines, I have a favorite of the weekend. It's the Bills hosting the Panthers off their overtime loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bills are the far superior team and go into this game in a must-win situation. This season, the Bills have lost close games against the likes of the Dolphins, Patriots and Bucs, or blown out inferior teams. There has not been an in-between, as the Bills' closest margin of victory this season has been 15 points. And guess what folks? The Panthers are terrible!

The Panthers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, and they are rotating quarterbacks between Cam Newton and P.J. Walker. Heck, Sam Darnold might even make an appearance off the injured reserve this weekend.

None of these quarterbacks put up a lot of points. In the Panthers' last seven games (lost five of seven) they've scored 3, 19, 6, 34, 21, 10 and 21. And it doesn't get any better for Carolina, who now heads to Buffalo to play the first-ranked defense, per Football Outsiders.

It's fair to question whether Buffalo's offense, which has struggled this season, can score enough to cover the 11 against a Panthers defense that can be active. My answer is yes. I see the Bills' defense giving their offense short fields, and we might even see a defensive score at some point.

This game will get out of hand quickly. Give me the Bills!

PICK: Bills (-10.5 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to win by more than 10.5 points

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Every time I wager on the Falcons, I hate myself because it never ends well. However, I'm not sure how to turn down this many points.

Kyle Shanahan's 49ers team does not play well at Levi Stadium, and they're even worse as betting favorites. Shanahan has covered just 34% of the time as a favorite, and he's 4-15-1 as a home favorite.

The 49ers also tend to play close games, having eight of their games fall within eight points or fewer this season.

On the other side, the Falcons are a whopping -108 in point differential but have still somehow won six games. That is due to their ability to be road warriors. Atlanta has yet to win a home game this season but is 6-1 on the road.

Everything seems to align for the Falcons in this contest. Take the points.

PICK: Falcons (+9.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points (or win outright)

Two-team, 7-point Teaser at FOX Bet

Philadelphia Eagles teased from -8 to -1 at FOX Bet*
*Bet made before Eagles game was postponed to Tuesday

The Eagles are out to 8-point favorites, and that's too many points for me to lay. However, the Eagles should beat the Football Team, as they will be out at least 18 players due to COVID-19. And, that list does not include their quarterback, who's questionable at the moment.

The WFT will be without their top five defensive lineman due to being on the COVID-19 list or injured reserve. They might get some of these players back before kickoff, but as of writing this, that unit is decimated.

The Eagles will start either Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew at quarterback, but I'm not sure if it matters in this game. Philadelphia's offensive and defensive lines will maul Washington's.

The Eagles' offensive line ranks fifth in adjusted line yards on the ground, rarely gets stuffed, and they are going to eat against a Washington football team defensive line featuring practice squad players.

Philadelphia's defense is not particularly good, but the Washington offense is so up and down. We don't even know who will be suiting up at quarterback for Washington.

Look for the Eagles to control the trenches and win this game.

Green Bay Packers teased from -5.5 to +1.5 at FOX Bet

I get a healthy Packers team playing good football against a beat-up Ravens team. Yes, please. It's hard to imagine how Baltimore can keep up in this game.

Even if Lamar Jackson plays for the Ravens, he's not been great lately. The QB is trying to do too much because he's the only option for the team to win. Teams are zeroing in on Jackson, and the results haven't been great for the Ravens.

Baltimore isn't great metrics-wise either, ranking 17th in offensive DVOA and 23rd on defense. Green Bay is peaking and is just the far better team statistically.

Geoff's Teaser

Eagles from -8 to -1
Packers from -5.5 to +1.5

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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