National Football League

NFL odds Week 16: Colts over Cardinals is the bet you need to make (and more)

Updated Dec. 23, 2021 1:02 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! I hope you all enjoy some great football and fun times with your family and friends this week.

Let's jump into my favorite Week 16 plays, with odds via FOX Bet.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, NFLN)

This one seems too easy, and when it does, you should normally wager on the opposite. But, I just can't do it in this situation. The matchup for the Colts is too grand to pass up.

The Colts have the best running back in the NFL, and this is the perfect matchup. They face a rushing defense that ranks 27th in opponent rushing yards per attempt and are graded as the 25th best unit at stopping the run according to Pro Football Focus. The Colts have an outstanding rushing attack that's ranked fourth in adjusted line yards. Their offensive line leans on teams and eventually wears out their opponent. Look for more of the same this weekend.

And yes, the Cardinals are going to load the box to make it tough to run and attempt to force Carson Wentz to beat them. But that can only work if Arizona is scoring on offense which puts pressure on the Indianapolis offense to throw the ball more. But, since the Cardinals' 8-0 start, their offense has been sputtering.

Arizona started the season third in offensive expected points added. But since Week 10, the Cardinals are 20th in that same metric. This isn't surprising because Kliff Kingsbury's offenses (and teams) always struggle during the second half of the season. In his first three seasons, Kingsbury is 15-5-1 through the first seven weeks. After Week 7, though, he is 8-17.

The Colts are playing better, need the win and are playing a Cardinals team that gets worse throughout the season. Give me Indy!

PICK: Colts (+1.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

I'm rolling with the under here because, in a game featuring Drew Lock as quarterback for the Broncos and a Raiders offense that can't score, points will be at a premium.

Drew Lock is just not good, and while the Raiders don't have the '85 Bears defense, they can surely do enough to make sure the Broncos don't score much.

On the flip side, since Henry Ruggs left the Las Vegas lineup, the Raiders have only scored more than 16 points just one time in seven games.

Tight end Darren Waller might return this weekend, which would boost the team's scoring potential, but I'm still not sure that even he will help this offense. Denver's defense ranks third in scoring, and this game will end below 40.

PICK: Under 41.5 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet

Two-team, 7-point Teaser

Green Bay Packers teased from -7.5 to -.5

When we do teasers, it's vital to take games through the key numbers of 3 and 7, and I've done that here.

The Packers are a machine in December. In three seasons under coach Matt LaFleur, they are undefeated over the final month of the season.

Green Bay played a mostly lackluster game against Baltimore on the road last weekend and escaped with a win. But I expect a renewed effort this weekend against the Browns.

Cleveland will surely get players back from the COVID-19 list, but that won't help its brutal schedule and traveling. First, the Browns game was moved to Monday, and now, on a short week, they have to travel to Green Bay.

The starter for Cleveland will be far inferior to Aaron Rodgers, no matter which quarterback the Browns trot out there — Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, or Nick Mullens. The Packers will win this game.

Minnesota Vikings teased from +3 to +10

The Vikings getting double-digit points in this teaser was too much to pass up. This season, coach Mike Zimmer has covered four of five games as an underdog. On the other side, Sean McVay has struggled as a road favorite. Over the last three seasons, the coach has a losing record in that spot.

And while it's often difficult to trust the Vikings — looking at you, Kirk Cousins — have you watched Matthew Stafford this season? Matt has been up and down game to game and sometimes even play to play.

Stafford's play has decreased throughout the season, and his numbers are actually not much better than Jared Goff's when he was with the Rams.

It's just hard to envision the Rams winning this game by more than 10 points, so I'll take the extra points to close out this teaser.

Geoff's Teaser

Packers -.5
Vikings +10

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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