National Football League

NFL odds: How Week 18 lines are set amid all the uncertainty

Published Jan. 7, 2022 5:03 p.m. ET

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By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

There aren’t many betting edges in the final week of the NFL regular season.

Most of the teams that have clinched playoff spots are resting their starters, teams that just missed the playoffs don’t have much to play for anymore and the league’s worst teams still stink and can easily lose by double digits.

There’s also the potential that a COVID-19 outbreak — here’s looking at you, Dallas — is waiting around the corner to throw the erratic Week 18 betting lines even more out of whack.

"It’s the annual headache week," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me about the NFL's regular-season finale. "There are so many games every year that mean nothing. Teams have already clinched their spot, their seeds or a first-round bye. Do they play their starters or not?"

Given all those circumstances, it’s extremely difficult for bookmakers to set lines and release them to the betting public early in the week. The road to kickoff this Saturday and Sunday is littered with landmines.

"There’s a lot of second guessing," JBB admitted. "When we opened, we didn’t think Dallas was going to play its starters. We were at Dallas -2, then the line went all the way out to -7.5 after it was announced that the starters were in. That was a nice surprise."

By Wednesday night, news broke that Micah Parsons and Tyron Smith had tested positive for COVID-19, and they’re now both unavailable for Saturday night’s game at Philadelphia. More positive tests could be on the way.

Once those rumblings started to hit the streets, you already know bettors were lining up to whack the Eagles at +7.5 and +7. FOX Bet is currently dealing the Cowboys at -4.5 with a total of O/U 43.

So let's recap that: Cowboys -2. Cowboys -7.5. Cowboys -4.5. All within a matter of days, if not hours.

"You really have to follow the money," JBB explained. "There are always people out there that know more information than we do. If we start to see loads of cash come in on a certain side, it’s probably because news is about to break. It always causes us problems behind the counter and it’s frustrating."

Frustration is a popular word these days for people that work behind the counter. After a bowl season riddled with coaches leaving, players opting out and chaotic COVID outbreaks, I imagine Week 18 feels somewhat like a bowl season crammed into one weekend.

"Bowl games are harder because of the sheer number of games," JBB stated. "And when news breaks in the NFL, it’s so mainstream that we’re able to process the news and make adjustments quickly. In some of these smaller bowl games, the information takes way more time and those bad lines tend to survive longer because we’re not privy to what’s going on."

Much like a weatherman, JBB is already forecasting the wagering weather if, say, the Kansas City Chiefs start losing to the Denver Broncos on Saturday. That would create an instant ripple effect as bettors would feel inclined to bet against Tennessee if Kansas City falls behind the eight-ball.

"If the Chiefs are getting beat badly, people will start fading the Titans, because Tennessee will have the No. 1 seed all locked up," JBB foreshadowed. "There are so many things to look out for, it’s angles galore."

Should Kansas City lose in Denver as an 11.5-point favorite, don’t be surprised if Houston gets bet from +10 down to +4.5 or +4 against Tennessee.

"That number would be a lot different," JBB cracked.

It’s still wild to me that Tennessee continues to catch disrespect from every direction. They have an 85% chance to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but all you hear about is what they don’t have or can’t do.

"The Titans have been such a banged-up football team this season," JBB said. "You have to imagine they would love nothing more than to take care of business against a bad Houston team and get two weeks off to rest up.

"They’re a completely different team when they’re at full strength. I can’t remember a time where a team was one win away from the No. 1 seed and still had this big of odds to win the conference and the Super Bowl."

Titans +450 to win the AFC, anybody?

I’ve been asked all week long for my best betting advice for Week 18. My simple thesis for anybody who asked has been the same — you can sit it out, but if you're looking to scratch that itch, I think the best strategy is to fade the sinking or already-sunken ship. 

Take the Minnesota Vikings, for example. They were a team with a regular season win total of 9 and relatively high hopes to make the playoffs thanks to an explosive offense and respectable defense. But Minnesota failed to live up to the hype, and there are whispers around the Twin Cities that the team has quit on head coach Mike Zimmer, who should get fired. 

So why the hell would you bet on them when you can bet against them?

"In the last week, it’s so tough to bet on the teams that underachieved," JBB said. "And not the ones that weren’t talented enough, it’s the ones that face planted. You’re dead-on with a team like the Vikings. There’s a good chance those players and coaches are already planning their vacations.

"You really need to be careful with teams like that."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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