National Football League

NFL odds Week 2: How to bet Buccaneers-Saints, pick

Updated Sep. 18, 2022 11:48 a.m. ET

The New Orleans Saints play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFL Week 2 showdown between NFC South rivals.

Quarterback Jameis Winston and the Saints are coming off a thrilling 27-26 win over the Falcons. Tom Brady and his Bucs easily defeated the Cowboys 19-3 in Week 1.

So which squad will be undefeated after this exciting contest?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Buccaneers-Saints, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Buccaneers -2.5 (Buccaneers favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Saints cover)
Moneyline: Buccaneers -149 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.71 total); Saints +115 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 43.5 points scored by both teams combined

The Buccaneers are 4-10 against the spread (ATS) and 4-10 straight up (SU) against the Saints since 2015. It's also worth noting that the Buccaneers are 21-21 ATS and 20-22 SU when facing NFC South opponents since 2015. The over has hit in 25 of those games.

The Saints, on the other hand, are 8-5 ATS and 7-6 SU as home underdogs since 2015. Also since 2015, New Orleans has gone 29-14 ATS and 29-14 SU against NFC South opponents.

Pick by FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

Perhaps the most popular statement of fact you’ll hear about any game this weekend: The Saints have owned Tom Brady in the regular season the past two years. They’re 4-0 and in those meetings, sacking Brady 13 times. He has six touchdown passes and eight interceptions, by far his worse numbers against anyone since joining Tampa Bay.

Will that trend continue? The sacks might – Brady’s offensive line is in shambles after losing tackle Donovan Smith in the opener. Brady is also likely to be down receiver Chris Godwin, who was injured (again) in the opener.

The over/under (O/U) total is crashing, from 47 to 44, and the line opened at Tampa Bay -4 and it has crossed to -2.5. That’s a lot of respected money on the Saints to win a low-scoring game. New Orleans didn’t look sharp in the opener, doing little-to-nothing for three quarters before waking up late to steal a 27-26 victory over the Falcons.

The public will be on Brady after watching the Bucs totally shut down the Cowboys 19-3. If you can get a field goal, the side has to be the Saints, and the under is certainly still in play.

PICK: Saints (+3 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Insights via FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

What is going on with the Saints defense?

Marcus Mariota dropped back to pass 18 times on early downs in the first three quarters last week.

Guess how many pressures the Saints got?

Zero.

Zero pressures. Obviously, that ranked worst in the NFL. Every other team had at least two pressures and or at least an 11% pressure rate (average was 29% pressure rate).

The Saints got pressure on just 9.4% of dropbacks, No. 32 in the NFL last week.

New Orleans got pressure on just 8% of early-down dropbacks, which ranked No. 31. And that’s going to be a major problem against a team that actually wants to drop back and pass a lot like the Bucs.

In 2021, the Saints' run defense ranked No. 1 in EPA/rush allowed to RBs (-0.20) and No. 5 in yards before contact per rush (0.92).

But last week, they allowed +0.03 EPA/rush (No. 25) and 2.46 yards before contact per rush (No.28).

Yes, the Saints know this Bucs offense, and yes, they’ve had a ton of success against it previously. But they had better be able to get pressure and stop the run, or they won’t have a shot at winning this game.

Are you ready for the NFL season? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your wagers.

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