National Football League

NFL odds Week 2: How to bet Commanders-Lions

Updated Sep. 18, 2022 11:43 a.m. ET

The Washington Commanders play at the Detroit Lions on Sunday in one of the NFL's longest-running rivalries.

Washington leads the all-time series 31-15, winning five of the past six games since 2009. The teams first met — as the Boston Braves (now Commanders) and Portsmouth Spartans (now Lions) — in 1932.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Commanders-Lions game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert analysis (odds via FOX Bet):

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Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Lions -1 (Lions favored to win by more than 1 point, otherwise Commanders cover)
Moneyline: Lions -118 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.47 total); Commanders -105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Total scoring over/under: 49 points scored by both teams combined

Washington quarterback Carson Wentz is 12-13 against the spread (ATS) and 10-15 straight up (SU) as a starter when a road underdog. Detroit QB Jared Goff is 15-11-2 ATS and 20-8 SU as a starter when the home favorite.

The Commanders are 16-11 ATS and 20-7 SU against the Lions since 1968.

The Commanders are 8-5 ATS and 6-7 SU against NFC North Division opponents since 2015, with the over in the over/under (O/U) hitting in eight of the 13 games.

The Commanders are 6-7-1 ATS and 5-9 SU as a road underdog under coach Ron Rivera since 2020.

The Lions are 15-10 ATS and 13-12 SU against NFC East opponents since 2010, with the over hitting in 19 of those 25 games.

The Lions are 10-7-2 ATS and 14-5 SU as home underdogs since 2015, with the over hitting in 12 of those games

Since 1986, the under has hit in 10 of the 17 games between Washington and Detroit.

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Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

The Lions are a favorite for the first time since 2020 as they host the Commanders in Week 2. Detroit is quickly becoming one of my favorite teams to wager on. They fight until the very end. Down 31-14 early in the third quarter to the Eagles last Sunday, it appeared the Lions would not cover the 4-point spread. But alas! They battled all the way back to lose 38-35 and cover the spread.

The Commanders, on the other hand, won and covered against the Jaguars in Week 1. They scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to pull away from the feisty Jags. Carson Wentz was his usual self. He had some big-time throws with terrible interceptions sprinkled into his play.

With the unpredictable nature of Wentz and then the fact that the Lions seemingly always claw their way back into games to cover, I think a 1.5-point spread does not give an edge either way. However, I do have a wager I like for this game.

It’s fading Lions quarterback Jared Goff.

The Lions do everything possible to avoid Jared Goff being the offense. Even in a game where they are down 17 points, the Lions had only 37 pass attempts and 28 rushing attempts. Jared Goff threw for 215 yards in a scramble to come back. That’s umm, not impressive. They desperately want to control the line of scrimmage and avoid Goff having to be the focal point. So, it’s always a good wager to take Jared Goff under passing yards.

So that is what I will do here. Jared Goff under.

PICK: Jared Goff under 249.5 passing yards at FOX Bet

Insights via FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The Commanders passed the ball at the sixth-highest rate last week.

In comparison, the quarterback the Lions defense just faced, Jalen Hurts, threw just one pass over 15 yards downfield and only four total passes over 10 yards downfield:

These went 3-for-4 for +1.42 EPA/att and 22.5 YPA against the Lions. But he simply focused on throwing underneath.

Carson Wentz threw nearly three times as often over 10 yards downfield.

And now he’ll be able to do so against the defense that ranked 30th last year in EPA/att (+0.71) on passes thrown over 10 yards downfield. The Lions allowed an eye-popping 56% of such passes to be completed last year (No. 31) for 13.4 YPA (No. 32).

This year, the Lions’ defense is off to an even worse start, albeit the Eagles didn’t even bother to test them very much.

But it’s not as if the Commanders’ secondary is much better. Last season, they allowed +0.66 EPA/att (No. 29) to passes thrown over 10 yards downfield, including 56% completions (No. 30).

The Lions started out against the Eagles much more aggressively downfield than last year.

In the first half, before the Eagles opened up a huge lead, the Lions threw 33% of all attempts 10-plus yards downfield.

That ranked 10th highest in the NFL.

Last year, they ranked 32nd in this metric, throwing just 24% of attempts 10-plus yards downfield in the first half.

Both of these quarterbacks will force the ball down the field more than their opponents did in their prior Week 1 games.

And they should have time to do so.

That’s because these offensive lines both did an outstanding job keeping their quarterbacks clean.

Last week, the Jaguars got pressure at just a 19% rate on Wentz.

The Eagles got pressure at just a 26% rate on Goff last week.

These numbers ranked in the bottom six in the NFL last week.

This game is the only matchup of Week 2 featuring offensive lines that ranked top-10 in the least pressure allowed Week 1.

Then, there is the ground game.

47% of Jaguars RB runs vs. Washington gained 3-plus yards before contact. That was the highest % in the NFL.

Jags running backs gained 7.5 YPC (No. 2 in NFL). And yet Doug Pederson’s Jaguars passed the ball at the second-highest rate in the NFL last week.

Trevor Lawrence averaged just 6.5 YPC, a full yard less than the Jags running backs gained.

When the Lions face this Washington run defense, you can expect they will run the ball and potentially get even more production than the Jaguars did.

Washington’s run defense allowed opposing RBs to post these numbers last week:

2.5 yards before contact per attempt (No. 29 in the NFL)
5.1 yards after contact per attempt (No. 31 in the NFL)
7.5 yards per carry (No. 31 in the NFL)
+0.18 EPA/rush (No. 29 in the NFL)

And this was the Jacksonville run offense.

This is music to Detroit’s ears. That’s because last week, Detroit’s RBs gained:

2.2 yards before contact per attempt (No. 6 in the NFL)
4.5 yards after contact per attempt (No. 4 in the NFL)
6.6 yards per carry (No. 3 in the NFL)
+0.36 EPA/rush (No. 1 in the NFL)

Detroit ran the ball at the third-highest rate of any team in Week 1 in the first half and the highest rate of any team except the two that played in the monsoon in Chicago (Bears and 49ers).

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