National Football League

NFL odds Week 3: How to bet Packers-Buccaneers, pick

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 3:22 p.m. ET

A three-time MVP matches up against a four-time MVP in a battle of the Bay's showdown for Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season. It's also America's Game of the Week on FOX (4:25 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App), so what more can you ask for?

The Green Bay Packers head to Florida to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.

The Packers are coming off a strong 27-10 win over the Chicago Bears in an early divisional game. Aaron Rodgers was in fine form welcoming back Allen Lazard, as Green Bay went on touchdown drives of 75, 54 and 67 yards in the first half en route to a 24-7 halftime lead. Rodgers has had issues with his receivers in the summer, preseason and Week 1, let's see if everyone is on the same page this week, as this will be a big test.

After going scoreless in the first half, the Buccaneers scored 20 points in the second to defeat the New Orleans Saints 20-10 in Week 2, delivering Tom Brady his first regular season win against Nola since his Florida arrival. Brady and Rodgers are facing each other for the fifth time in their careers, with Brady winning three of these, most recently in the 2021 NFC Championship.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective for the Packers-Buccaneers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

RELATED: Packers assert themselves

Packers @ Buccaneers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Buccaneers -1.5 (Buccaneers favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Packers cover)
Moneyline: Buccaneers -120 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.33 total); Packers -105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Total scoring over/under: 41.5 points scored by both teams combined

Aaron Jones led the Packers with 132 rushing yards in Week 2. The Packers are 12-1 when Jones has 100-plus rushing yards.

The Packers are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in their past seven games.

The Packers have hit the under in the over/under (O/U) in four of their past six games.

With a win, the Buccaneers would start 3-0 for the first time since 2005.

Including the postseason, the Buccaneers are 5-0 in their past 5 games against the NFC North.

The total has gone over in the O/U in five of the Buccaneers' past seven games against the Packers.

Pick by gambling analyst Sam Panayotovich:

The Bucs are basically the walking wounded at the moment.

Tom Brady – still down three offensive linemen – will likely be without Mike Evans (he is suspended for the game), Chris Godwin and Julio Jones against Green Bay, and the news continues to get worse. Defensive end and elite run stopper Akiem Hicks is out with plantar fasciitis, which only makes life easier on the Packers’ backfield.

Aaron Rodgers handed the ball off 33 times to Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon last Sunday night to the tune of 193 yards. The Cheeseheads won’t run with that much success against Tampa Bay, but balance has always brought life to Green Bay’s offense under Matt LaFleur.

It’s tough betting against Brady, but the Packers are the play.

PICK: Packers (+1.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)

Insight from FOX Sports Betting Expert Warren Sharp:

The Green Bay Packers have the potential to be in for a rude awakening when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense on Sunday.

The Packers have played two of the worst defenses in the NFL thus far: No. 30 Vikings and No. 27 Bears.

Now they will go up against the No. 2 defense in the NFL in the Buccaneers, which also ranks No. 1 against the pass. But let's dig in a little more.

There are strong reasons to believe the Packers offense is overvalued, but so is this Bucs defense.

Tampa Bay has played the second-easiest schedule of offenses thus far (No. 28 Dallas and No. 25 New Orleans) and now goes up against Green Bay.

The truth likely lies in the middle. The Bucs defense is solid but not as good as it's looked to date, and the Packers offense is solid but not as good as it's looked to date.

That said, it was extremely impressive to see the Packers rank No. 1 in percentage of early downs that gain a first down.

Despite not putting points on the scoreboard vs. the Vikings, the Packers offense was elite in the game at avoiding third downs. And that continued in Week 2 against the Bears.

On 34% of the Packers early-down plays, they've converted a first down, which is the best mark for any offense in the first two weeks of a season the last two years.

Adding context makes these numbers even more impressive, in that the Packers have a well below average pass rate on these plays. Unlike the Chiefs, for example, who pass the ball frequently, the Packers are the No. 10 most run-heavy team on these early downs.

It helps to go against two bottom-five run defenses to start the year. And it will be fascinating to see how their rushing works against a Buccaneers defense that ranks above average vs. runs.

The Bucs rank No. 9 in EPA/rush to RB-runs on early downs. But they're now without DT Akiem Hicks, who is excellent up the middle.

On the other side of the ball, I believe Leonard Fournette might have a solid outing against the Packers run defense.

On early down RB-runs, the Packers run defense ranks:

No. 32 in EPA/att (+0.13)

No. 31 in success rate (50%)

No. 30 in yards before contact/rush (2.0)

No. 29 in YPC (6.2)

These numbers are terrible and came against the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings rushing attacks. This is why I believe the Bucs can have success on the ground. But the key will be whether they have the patience to stick with the run early and often.

In prior years, I wouldn't be so sure.

But in 2022?

I think they might.

On early downs in the first three quarters, the Bucs have a pass rate of just 49%. That ranks 27th.

In 2021, they had a 65% pass rate, which was No 2.

In 2020, when they won the Super Bowl, they had a 62% pass rate, which was No. 5.

But that was when this team had a healthy offensive line, which is anything but the case in 2022.

Nor do they have healthy wide receivers.

You might be familiar with their major injuries along the offensive line before the season. But now they're going to be without LT substitute Josh Wells, who was filling in for LT Donovan Smith, who is also injured and at risk of missing the game. They will also be without WR1 Mike Evans and it's TBD whether they'll have Chris Godwin or Julio Jones.

The bottom line is Tampa Bay has been forced to run the ball more because they can't pass protect, nor do they have strong enough receivers.

And Brady should struggle in this matchup. Without Mike Evans on the field, Brady has averaged 61.6% completions and just 6.7 YPA. And that was with guys like Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.

So I would expect a ton of rushing volume for Fournette, which would be the play to attack the Packers defense where they're most vulnerable.

But to run, you've got to keep the game close.

And due to a higher run rate and poor efficiency passing, the Bucs shockingly have the NFL's lowest rate in percentage of early downs that gain first downs, at 17.9%.

As such, this is a matchup of the most efficient early down offense in the NFL vs. the worst:

No. 1 Packers – 33.6% first down rate on early downs

No. 32 Bucs – 17.9% first down rate on early downs

These two teams are much slower-paced than average and run the ball at a much higher rate than average.

If there are no short fields set up by defensive turnovers nor too many explosive plays, I expect a fairly high run rate for both offenses and time-consuming drives.

ADVICE: First half under, but wait until you can grab 21

Are you ready for the NFL season? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your wagers.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!