National Football League

NFL odds Week 4: Bet on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to bounce back against the Eagles

Updated Oct. 1, 2021 6:41 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Just like Bill Belichick likes to feel out his team in the first few weeks of every season, I've got a similar process with the gambling market.

Public bettors did well last week and are going to ride big favorites this weekend. Week 4 feels like a unique situation to pounce on market overreaction and over-inflated lines based on public perception. Tread cautiously, gamblers.

The league's dregs – the Jets and Giants – are winless and desperate, the public is all over the Detroit Lions (!), and oh yeah, there's the matchup of the century between Tom Brady and Belichick.

Let's take a look at my best bets for the NFL Week 4 slate, with spreads via FOX Bet.

DETROIT LIONS at CHICAGO BEARS (-2.5 at FOX Bet)

Two weeks ago, the Bears were home favorites against the Bengals, and all the money came in on Cincinnati. The line went from 3.5 to 2.5, and we all know what happened next. Chicago led 17-0 before holding on to win and cover.

This week, the Bears are home favorites against the winless Lions, and the look-ahead line was six, and it's come all the way down to 2.5.

Sure, Chicago has an unresolved QB situation – Andy Dalton's banged up, Justin Fields is wearing a brace on his hand at practice – and only coach Matt Nagy knows if they'll have to dust off Nick Foles this week.

Yes, Fields got sacked nine times last week and the offensive line is playing musical chairs, but Detroit ranks 24th in pressure rate. They are the worst-rated defensive team in the NFL through three weeks.

The Bears are not a good team, and through three weeks, they have been less impressive than the Lions, but this is simply a numbers play. If you can get -2.5, you take it.

Jared Goff historically has had problems with pressure and doesn't have the arm or the weapons on the outside to beat teams deep, so expect Chicago to blitz early and often.

The worst performance of Goff's career came at Soldier Field in 2018, when the Rams went to the Super Bowl. He was intercepted four times and sacked three times in that embarrassing 15-6 prime-time loss.

Chicago bounces back this Sunday.

PICK: Bears (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

NEW YORK GIANTS (+7 at FOX Bet) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Let's be clear: I don't like the New York Giants. From the coach to the GM to the QB – hell, let's toss in the owner – they've been a dumpster fire for the better part of a decade. In the last five years: 18-49.

This season's 0-3 start, combined with a grueling upcoming schedule, means they'll need an absolute miracle to make the postseason. After collapsing against the Falcons in the final five minutes last week, nobody will be backing the 0-3 ATS Giants.

But I'll be taking them in this spot for two primary reasons:

1) Why would the Saints be favored by this much over anyone? Jameis Winston has yet to pass for 150 yards in a game, and last week's win over the Patriots was completely driven by the defense, which held a rookie QB to 4.3 yards per play and generated three turnovers.

2) The only time Daniel Jones seems to thrive is on the road, where he's oddly 10-4 ATS (4-11 ATS at home), and the G-Men have fared well away from the spotlight of New York, as they're 17-3 ATS in their last 20 road games as underdogs.

Also, the Giants' run defense is underrated. They're only 23rd in DVOA, but if you strip away a late 70-yard TD allowed to Melvin Gordon in the opener, they haven't allowed a 70-yard rusher this season.

Keep an eye on the New Orleans injury report, as two starting offensive linemen have missed some practice this week.

As a bonus, take a peek at the under – New York is 14-4-1 to the under over their last 19 games.

PICK: Giants (+7 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)

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TENNESSEE TITANS at NEW YORK JETS (+7 at FOX Bet)

The Jets have faced the fourth toughest schedule this season, according to Football Outsiders. In walk the Titans, who rank in the bottom 10 against the run and the pass. Even with a below-average offensive line, Zach Wilson will finally be in a position to succeed.

New York hasn't scored an offensive touchdown in two weeks, but consider their opponents: Bill Belichick, who has dominated rookie QBs for much of his career, and the Denver Broncos on the road.

And the Jets' defense hasn't been hot garbage despite a slew of injuries, ranking around the league average against the run and pass, and 10th in opponent yards per play (5.4).

New York was the first bet I made on Sunday night when it opened at +9 (-117), and the line has come all the way down to seven and could come crashing through the key number by kickoff if the Titans go into this game without receivers AJ Brown (hamstring) and Julio Jones (hamstring).

Last week in this space, we took the Dolphins, getting points after being shut out the week prior. That trend is now 21-6 ATS over the last six seasons. The Jets fit that trend in this situation, as they were blanked the previous week in Denver.

I do not recommend making Tennessee your Survivor play this week because New York will be live underdogs to win this game.

PICK: Jets (+7 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7 at FOX Bet) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Gamblers are sour on the Chiefs, who not only didn't cover last week but lost outright at home to the Chargers to fall to 1-2 this season and 0-3 ATS. It seems like everyone is out on Kansas City, who have only covered just twice in their last 14 games. Everyone that is, except me.

Consider this: The Chiefs scored 24 points against the Chargers and turned the ball over three times in Los Angeles territory. Uncharacteristic stuff from Patrick Mahomes, who had three interceptions in September – or, three more than he had over the last three Septembers – combined!

On the flip side, the Eagles are a bit of a mess since the season-opening win over the Falcons. Philadelphia also leads the NFL in penalties and ranks second in penalty yards.

The Eagles have no offensive touchdowns in the last two games and haven't led for a minute in either of those contests. And now they play one of the best teams in football?

The Philadelphia offensive line is also dinged up, as left tackle Jordan Mailata missed the Dallas game and hasn't practiced this week. Former first-round pick Andre Dillard will replace him. He played well against Dallas, but now he goes up against Chris Jones of the Chiefs in an absolute mismatch.

Look for Kansas City to take out their frustrations on Philadelphia in this spot.

PICK: Chiefs (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

CHALK CITY 4-TEAM TEASER at FOX Bet

Kansas City Chiefs -7 to pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 to pick
Green Bay Packers -6.5 to +.5
Seattle Seahawks +2.5 to +9.5

In a perfect world, you'd wait for the Packers to hit seven and then tease the line down for them to just win. Three road teams in a teaser carry many risks, but my love for the Chiefs this week is outlined above.

My biggest concern with Tom Brady is a unique stat you can take any way you'd like: He's 0-9 ATS in his last nine prime-time kickoffs. The age jokes were flying last year, and you can go ahead and make them again.

TB12 has shown he can deliver past his bedtime – see the game-winning drive vs. the Cowboys in the opener – but the spread is the great equalizer.

There's a scenario where Bill Belichick throws everything at Brady, given his familiarity with the QB dating back two decades.

Still, even then, this Patriots offense has been so limited for three weeks (4.8 yards per play, 27th in the NFL) that you have to wonder if rookie QB Mac Jones can keep up.

I wouldn't touch the Green Bay spread in this game, hence the tease. The Steelers can keep it close with the Packers for one reason: Mike Tomlin.

Coach Tomlin as an underdog is one of the trends that you can believe in because of his propensity for getting his team to thrive in the "prove it" role. The Pittsburgh coach is 38-19-2 as an underdog, and this space was on Steelers in the opener.

The Pittsburgh defense is getting healthy again, with T.J. Watt returning to practice and Alex Highsmith joining finally healthy Devin Bush and Joe Haden. The Packers return home after an emotional win in San Francisco, and they've got a beat-up offensive line, too.

The 49ers are coming off a backbreaking loss to the Packers in which Aaron Rodgers worked magic in the final 37 seconds to set up the game-winning field goal.

The Seahawks come into this game off two embarrassing second-half performances in which they scored just six points against Tennessee and Minnesota combined. They gave up 33 points to those two teams in the second half and OT. Quick passes and formidable ground games gave Seattle's defense troubles in those two outings.

The Seahawks defense is as bad as it was in the first half of last season – last in yards allowed, 27th in DVOA pass defense, and 20th in yards per play allowed. With that being said, this is a bounce-back spot for Seattle.

FOX research passed this stat along: Russell Wilson has never lost three straight games in the same season in his career.

Also, Pete Carroll has won three of four vs. Kyle Shanahan, and when it comes to the spread, 10 or fewer points determined all of those games.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.

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