National Football League

NFL odds Week 4: How to bet Dolphins-Bengals, pick

Published Sep. 29, 2022 3:44 p.m. ET

The Miami Dolphins hit the road to take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season.

Miami and Cincinnati are both coming off Week 3 wins. Miami improved to 3-0 with a 21-19 win over the Buffalo Bills. Cincinnati is 1-2, after beating the New York Jets, 27-12.

Who will come out on top in this AFC East-AFC North matchup?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Dolphins-Bengals game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

RELATED: Week 4 lines, odds

Dolphins @ Bengals (8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime)

Point spread: Cincinnati -3.5 (Bengals favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Dolphins cover)
Moneyline: Bengals -182 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.49 total); Dolphins +140 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $24 total)
Total scoring over/under: 48.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick by FOX Sports NFL Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

If this contest was being played on a Sunday, I might lean toward taking the points with the road team. The Dolphins have surprised us with their start this season. They are 3-0 and had a 21-point comeback win at Baltimore and a hard-fought victory against the Bills on Sunday. That hard-fought victory is the reason why the Dolphins will struggle on Thursday Night Football.

Their defense played 90 snaps against the Buffalo offense, allowing over 500 yards but doing just enough to keep Josh Allen out of the end zone. Turning around to play a Thursday game after that output on Sunday will be extremely tough on their bodies. Trust me on this one.

The Bengals' offense has had some issues this season. They are ranked 31st in DVOA, but we saw improvement last weekend against that poor Jets defense. The Bengals have the weapons to attack the Dolphins' cover-zero defensive schemes. While I have some worry about the Bengals being prepared for the zero pressure, if they do hit one or two of those, they will score plenty of points to cover.

The Bengals' offense has struggled, but their defense has not. Cincy's defense is ranked seventh in DVOA. Defensive end Trey Hendrickson was just named AFC player of the week after he had 2.5 sacks on Sunday.

The Dolphins' offense can be potent. But outside their 28-point fourth quarter in Baltimore, they’ve scored 55 points in 11 quarters. I think the Bengals' secondary, a unit that has proven it can shut down Tyreek Hill, will do enough on Thursday to slow down the Dolphins' offense which will help them cover in the end.

PICK: Dolphins (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)

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