Week 4 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to keep giving you the edges needed to make a profit this week.
Last week’s trends piece pointed out a few winners as four 0-2 teams covered against the spread (ATS), the Los Angeles Rams won and covered as favorites and the Dallas Cowboys won straight up (SU) as underdogs.
We dove into the data and dissected overall patterns again, along with more coach- and player-specific trends, to inform you on who to bet on this week.
Let's have some fun!
Large favorites cover in Week 4
We usually love taking the underdogs in games with large spreads, but our data says otherwise historically for Week 4 games. The Green Bay Packers are 9.5-point favorites at FOX Bet in their matchup with the New England Patriots. The Packers being such big favorites probably has to do with the game being at Lambeau Field and Patriots starting quarterback Mac Jones being out with an injury.
Furthermore, 9-plus point favorites are 26-21-1 ATS (55.3%) and 38-10 SU (79.2%) in Week 4 since 2000. When looking at Green Bay specifically, they are 3-2 ATS (60%) and 5-0 SU as 9 to 12 point favorites under Matt LaFleur. Aaron Rodgers is also 23-21 ATS (52.3%) and 38-6 SU (86.4%) when a 9-plus point favorite in regular season games for his career.
Road underdogs have recently covered in Week 4
This was an interesting one as it only pertains to the last decade of Week 4 play. When going back further, the percentages even out and don’t stick out as much. However, when going back to 2010, road underdogs are 63-46-1 ATS (57.8%) and 42-68 SU (38.2%) in Week 4. Since 2015, the cover and win rate both jump slightly to 58.8% and 42%, respectively, with road underdogs going 40-28-1 ATS and 29-40 SU. And if you go back to just the past three seasons (since 2019), both rates jump significantly – 19-11 ATS (63.3%) and 16-14 SU (53.3%). There are eight teams this week that fit this bill, per FOX Bet odds.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) at Carolina Panthers
Patriots (+10) at Packers
Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Rams (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Kliff Kingsbury is dominant as a road underdog
We mentioned this trend earlier in the season and would be remiss not to mention it again as the Cardinals are 1.5-point underdogs on the road against the Panthers at FOX Bet.
Since taking over as Arizona’s head coach, Kliff Kingsbury is a whopping 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) and 12-7 SU (63.2%) as a road underdog. Over the past two seasons, he has gone 7-0 ATS and 7-0 SU in such situations.
Sean McVay and the Rams will cover
This was a particularly tough call, considering the Rams are 4-10 ATS and SU (40%) against the 49ers since 2015. However, the 49ers are coming off an ugly 11-10 loss to the Broncos.
Here are a couple of nuggets on why the trends suggest taking the Rams against the struggling 49ers:
- Rams under Sean McVay: 19-12 ATS (61.3%) and 20-11 SU (64.5%) vs NFC West teams 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and SU on the road vs NFC West teams 4-2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 5-2 SU (71.4%) in Monday games
- 19-12 ATS (61.3%) and 20-11 SU (64.5%) vs NFC West teams
- 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and SU on the road vs NFC West teams
- 4-2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 5-2 SU (71.4%) in Monday games
FOX Bet currently has Los Angeles as a 1.5-point road underdog in the Monday night matchup.
0-3 teams cover in Week 4 (Raiders)
Just as trends predicted 0-2 teams would cover last week – the Bengals, Falcons, Titans and Panthers all did – the same can be said for 0-3 teams. Going back to 2015, 0-3 teams are 21-11 ATS (65.5%) and 15-17 (46.9%) SU in Week 4 games. If you go back even further to 2010, the cover rate is still 60.4%, with teams going 32-21 ATS in that span.
The Raiders are the only 0-3 team, and they are 2.5-point home favorites against the Broncos at FOX Bet.
Look for the Browns to win and cover against the Falcons
This line is suspiciously low as FOX Bet has the Cleveland Browns as 1.5-point road favorites against the 1-2 Falcons. This likely has to do with the fact that Myles Garrett’s status is questionable after enduring a car crash earlier in the week. Still, all the data points toward the Browns covering.
Here’s what we found on the matchup:
- Browns are 12-3 ATS (80%) and SU vs the Falcons since 1966
- Browns are 8-3-2 ATS (72.7%) and 8-5 SU (61.5%) against NFC South opponents since 2010, with the under hitting in eight of those games (61.5%)
- Browns are 7-3-1 ATS (70%) and 5-6 SU (45.5%) on the road against NFC South opponents since 2000, with the under hitting in eight of those games (72.7%)
- Falcons are 1-4 ATS (20%) and 0-5 SU as a home underdog under Arthur Smith (since last season)
Cowboys should win and cover
We said the Cowboys would win last week as underdogs, and we like them to win as favorites again this week against the Washington Commanders. FOX Bet has them as 3-point favorites at home, with the line having moved from 2.5 earlier in the week.
Since 2018, Dallas is 18-7 ATS (72%) and 19-6 SU (76%) against NFC East opponents, with the over hitting in 15 of those games (60%). In that same span, the Cowboys are 10-2 ATS (83.3%) and 11-1 SU (91.7%) when playing at home against division opponents. The over also hit in 10 of those games, an 83.3% rate.
So are you ready to place some NFL bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers!
