National Football League

NFL odds Week 5: How to bet Cowboys-Rams, pick

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 3:29 p.m. ET

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The Dallas Cowboys are traveling out west to play the defending champion Los Angeles Rams for a Sunday afternoon appointment. 

Dallas looks to improve on its 3-0 record in the absence of Dak Prescott, while the Rams look to improve to 3-2 after a 24-9 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Cowboys-Rams game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Rams -5.5 (Rams favored to win by more than 5.5 points, otherwise Cowboys cover)
Moneyline: Rams -250 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14 total); Cowboys +190 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $27 total)
Total scoring over/under: 42.5 points scored by both teams combined 

Dallas is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and 4-2 straight up (SU) against the Rams since 2010, with the Over/Under splitting at 3 in those games. 

Los Angeles is 19-15-2 ATS and 26-10 SU as home favorites under Sean McVay, with the Under hitting in 22 of those games.

Dak Prescott 'not well enough to play' vs. Rams in Week 5, per Cowboys Owner/GM Jerry Jones | UNDISPUTED

Dak Prescott reportedly won’t be ready to return from injury on Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams.

Insights from FOX Sports Betting Expert Warren Sharp:

Last week the Rams absolutely could not run the ball on one of the best run defenses in the NFL of the 49ers. On early downs, RB-runs recorded -0.39 EPA/att, which was the second worst in the NFL last week.

But this is deeper than just one game.

The Rams have the NFL’s third worse early down offense.  

Last week the Cowboys defense held the Washington Commanders to just 3.3 YPA on early downs. 

That’s not YPC, that’s YPA. In fact, the numbers look like they should be reversed, as RBs averaged 5.5 YPC on early-down runs. Washington was able to get the ground game going, which kept the game close. But they couldn’t do anything via the air.

This is a theme for the Cowboys defense on the season, however.

Dallas is No. 5 vs. the pass and No. 25 against the run.

Dallas ranks No. 1 vs. explosive passing and No. 32 against explosive rushing.  

And what makes these run defense numbers so concerning is the fact they’ve played the fifth easiest schedule of run offenses.  

The Commanders, Bengals and Bucs rushing offenses all rank No. 27, 28 and 29 in rush efficiency.

Yet Dallas has a terrible run defense.

This is where the Rams must capitalize.

Behind this offensive line, Matthew Stafford will be a wounded antelope for a pride of lions if McVay calls too many early down passes.

Their one chance is to slow down the pass rush with a higher-than-average rate of runs.  

Dallas has allowed a touchdown on 9% (4-of-44) of opponent possessions, second best in the league.

I think the Cowboys and Cooper Rush have pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes.

They trailed the Giants in Week 3 13-6 in the late third quarter. They had back-to-back elongated TD drives to close the third and start the fourth quarter against a bottom-10 Giants defense to take the lead and make the final score look lopsided.

Week 4, they were up only 15-10 in the fourth quarter over Washington and had to outscore Washington 10-0 in the fourth quarter to make the final score look lopsided.

The Rams run defense ranks No. 3 in the NFL and should limit the Cowboys rushing attack and force more onto Rush’s plate.  

63% of the Dallas scoring plays have been field goals, the highest rate in the league. League average is 42%.

I see enough edges for both teams’ defenses to support leaning toward the Under.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

Even though Sean McVay is 3-1 against Dallas, the Rams are in a tough spot here. Los Angeles comes into this game off a quick turnaround following the MNF loss and a litany of problems in the trenches. 

The Rams are last in the NFL in pressure rate at 9.4%, which is down considerably from 22.8% last year, and they couldn’t take advantage of the 49ers struggling OL. Will they change some things against Dallas to pressure Cooper Rush? 

Offensively, the Rams had zero explosive plays against the 49ers, and they’re extremely limited, with Cooper Kupp getting a whopping 36.2% of Matt Stafford’s targets. The most difficult aspect of this handicap is the look-ahead line was -7; after the Rams got their butts kicked Monday, it’s down to -4.5. 

As suspect as the Rams looked, remember to forget what you saw last week and trust the overreaction is too much. Bypass your recency bias, and lay the points.

PICK: Rams (-4.5 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to win by more than 4.5 points

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