National Football League

NFL odds Week 5: How to bet Falcons-Buccaneers, pick

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 3:31 p.m. ET

Tom Brady looks to continue tormenting the Atlanta Falcons when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to their NFC South Division rival in a battle of 2-2 teams on Sunday.

Brady is 10-0 all-time against the Falcons, including 4-0 since joining the Buccaneers in 2020. Brady quarterbacked the New England Patriots to a 34-28 win over the Falcons in Super Bowl LI, rallying his team from a 28-3 deficit in 2017 in one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history.

The Buccaneers lead the all-time series 29-28.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Falcons-Buccaneers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

Falcons @ Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Buccaneers -10 (Buccaneers favored to win by more than 10 points, otherwise Falcons cover)
Moneyline: Buccaneers -500 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12 total); Falcons +360 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $46 total)
Total scoring over/under: 46.5 points scored by both teams combined

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Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

Last year when the Falcons stepped up in class, they lost eight games by double digits. Seven of those came against playoff teams.

Now they’ll face an angry defense that was shredded by Pat Mahomes in an island game. I chalked up that loss to the disruption caused in Tampa by a hurricane.

The Falcons have looked explosive through four games, except for three quarters against the Rams, when they were down 28-3. They were 10-point underdogs in that game and are now only 8.5 against a better defense?

In the four meetings since Brady joined Tampa, he’s 4-0 against Atlanta and 3-1 ATS. The Falcons have been a great story. The Marcus Mariota offense has been plucky and, more importantly, cashing for bettors (4-0 ATS, tops in the NFL.) But they will be missing a big piece this weekend in Cordarrelle Patterson.

Historically, this is a bad spot for Atlanta, as 4-0 ATS teams in Week 5 are 12-21 ATS over the last 20 years.

PICK: Buccaneers (-8.5 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to win by more than 8.5 points

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