National Football League

NFL odds Week 5: How to bet Titans-Commanders, pick

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 3:32 p.m. ET

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The Tennessee Titans (2-2) play at the Washington Commanders (1-3) on Sunday in a game featuring the two most recent NFL teams to change their mascots.

The Titans were known as the Tennessee Oilers from 1997-98 after the franchise moved from Houston. This is the first season Washington's teams goes by the Commanders. 

Tennessee leads the all-time series 7-6 as the teams have split the past 10 games.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Titans-Commanders game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

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Titans @ Commanders (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Titans -1.5 (Titans favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Commanders cover)
Moneyline: Titans -118 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.47 total); Commanders -105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Total scoring over/under: 42.5 points scored by both teams combined

The Titans are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in their past six games.

The Under in the Over/Under (O/U) has hit in seven of the Titans' past 10 games.

The Titans are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their past five road games.

The Under in the O/U has hit in 11 of the Commanders' past 16 games.

The Over in the O/U has hit in five of the Commanders' past seven games against the Titans.

The Over in the O/U has hit in six of the Commanders' past  seven home games.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Warren Sharp:

The only positive thing you can really say about the Washington Commanders through four weeks is they’ve played a brutal schedule, and it can’t get much worse.  

Washington has played three top-6 teams so far this season. The Jaguars are playing tremendous on both sides of the ball, the Eagles have the best metrics in the NFL and the Cowboys are playing well over their head through four weeks.

Now, Washington will be going up a Titans defense which has several areas they should be able to exploit. Assuming Carson Wentz doesn’t cost the team another game, which is entirely possible.

The Titans are the No. 1 most sensitive team to play action in the NFL. And Washington uses play action at a well above-average rate.

Look at Tennessee’s splits for play action on early downs in the game’s first three quarters:

Vs. play action: 

+0.66 EPA/att (No.32)

Without play action: 

-0.23 EPA/att (No. 9)

Washington uses play action at the NFL’s No. 1 highest rate on early downs in the first three quarters.

So on paper, this is a great matchup for Washington.

However, nearly 50% of the Commander’s play action attempts are thrown behind the line of scrimmage.

I haven’t been overly impressed by the Titans on the season. But they are one of the best offenses out of the box on the season.

The Titans have scored on 12-of-19 drives (63.2%) in the first half this season, the highest rate in the league, but they have scored on just one of their 23 possessions in the second half this season, the lowest rate in the league.

Tennessee has scored a touchdown on every single opening drive of the season, the only team to hit that mark.  

They are averaging 4 points per drive on their first four drives, which is the highest mark in the NFL. 

Their 50% TD rate on their first four drives also ranks No. 1 in the NFL.

The Titans may have some success scripting some explosive passes into their early offense this week against Washington.

Washington has the No. 30 defense vs. explosive passes, while the Titans have the NFL’s No. 2 most explosive passing attack.  

Washington has allowed an average of 15.3 first-half points, including allowing just three to the Jaguars in Week 1.  

While I have no opinion on the side and think the Commanders may put up a fight, I think the Titans offense does enough early to exceed their first-half team total of between 10 and 10.5 points.

PICK: Titans Over 10.5 team total in first half

Are you ready for the NFL season? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your wagers.

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Warren Sharp