NFL odds Week 5: Ride Mahomes, Chiefs as favorites; best betting trends
Week 5 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to keep giving you the edges needed to make a profit this week.
Last week’s trends piece pointed out a few winners.
Four road underdogs covered against the spread (ATS), Kliff Kingsbury improved to 8-0 ATS and straight up (SU) as a road underdog in regular-season games since last year, the Las Vegas Raiders covered and earned their first win and the Dallas Cowboys continued their betting dominance against NFC East opponents with a win over the Washington Commanders.
As always, we did a deep dive into the data and dissected overall patterns to identify the best trends of the week. We also looked at more coach- and player-specific trends, which should help inform you on who to bet on this week.
Let's jump into it, and have some fun!
The Over hits in Week 5 games with an Over/Under of 43 or less
Since 2000, the Over hit in 82 of 137 Week 5 games (59.9%) in which the total was listed at 43 or lower. When looking at the same situations since 2005, the Over hit in 53 of 89 such games (59.6%). And looking at a more recent sample size, since 2010, the Over has hit in 27 of 45 games (60%) with a point total of 43 or less.
Entering this weekend, there are four games with an Over/Under point total of 43 or less.
The games that fit the bill are (totals provided by FOX Bet):
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (42.5)
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (40.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (38.5)
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (42.5)
Home favorites of seven to 14 points don’t cover as often as you’d think in Week 5
Week 5 features five games with favorites of seven or more points, with all six favorites coming at home. We decided to look at how often home favorites of seven to 14 points have covered the spread in Week 5 games historically. The results are listed below:
- Since 2018: 6-7 ATS (46.2%)
- Since 2015: 8-11-1 ATS (42.1%)
- Since 2010: 17-15-1 ATS (53.1%)
- Since 2005: 22-18-2 ATS (55%)
- Since 2000: 25-29-3 ATS (46.3%)
As you can see above, the cover rate is below 50% when going back to 2015 and 2018. While it jumps up when looking at rates from 2005 and 2010, it drops back significantly to 46.3% when looking at the percentage of covers since 2000. In simple terms, it hasn't been profitable to bet on teams to cover in these situations.
FOX Bet's spreads for each of the six games that fit this weekend are:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Bills cover as double-digit favorites
The Bills covered as double-digit favorites against the Titans earlier this season, and history says they’ll do it again this week against the Steelers.
As we mentioned in our Week 2 post, Buffalo is dominant under Sean McDermott as double-digit favorites. Under his watch, the Bills have gone 6-2-2 ATS (75%) and 9-1 SU (90%) in such situations. McDermott and the Bills have also been a steady cover as home favorites, going 16-9-3 ATS (64%) and 23-5 SU (82.1%) in those games.
FOX Bet currently has the Bills as 14-point favorites.
If you’re wondering what they are as a 14-point favorite or larger under McDermott, they’ve gone 3-2-2 ATS (60%) and 6-1 SU (85.7%) in those games.
Lions should cover against the Patriots
This one might be a bit surprising, considering the Detroit Lions' perennial struggles, but there are a lot of data points in their direction.
Since 2018, Detroit is 15-13 ATS (53.6%) as a road underdog and also 6-4 ATS (60%) in such situations under Dan Campbell. Possibly the most eye-opening nugget is that the Lions are 14-7 ATS (66.7%) overall going back to last season, tied with the Packers for the second-best cover percentage in the regular season in that span (Cowboys are first).
It’s also interesting that the Lions are underdogs since the status of New England quarterbacks Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer is still uncertain. Should they both be ruled out, Bailey Zappe will make his first career NFL start. Something to keep an eye on.
Look for the Chiefs to cover against the Raiders
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs put on a dominant performance against the Buccaneers last week, and they should cover again this week. While we said earlier that home favorites of seven to 14 points don’t cover too often in Week 5, the Chiefs are the exception here — specifically because they’re playing the Raiders. Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are a whopping 7-2 ATS (77.8%) and 8-1 SU (88.9%) at home when playing the Raiders. Overall, Kansas City is 12-6 ATS (66.7%) and 15-3 SU (88.3%) against the Raiders under Reid. Something of note is the Over has hit in 10 of those 18 matchups (55.6%).
Other data doesn’t point in the Raiders' direction either. Since 2018, they have been 6-7 ATS (46.2%) and 5-8 SU (38.5%) on the road against AFC West opponents. FOX Bet currently has the Chiefs as a 7.5-point favorite in Monday’s matchup.
Dolphins should cover against the Jets
Despite Tua Tagovailoa being ruled out for Sunday’s game against the New York Jets, the Miami Dolphins have been dominant in this matchup in recent years. Since 2016, Miami is 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%) and 10-2 SU (83.3%) when playing the Jets, with the Under hitting in seven of those 12 games (58.3%).
The Dolphins are also 17-8-1 ATS (68%) and 15-11 SU (57.7%) against AFC East opponents since 2018, and more specifically, they’re 7-4-1 ATS (63.6%) on the road when playing division opponents during that same time span.
It should also be mentioned that Teddy Bridgewater will get the start for the Dolphins. Bridgewater is an astounding 24-6 ATS (80%) as a starter in road games. The Miami native is 5-2 ATS (71.4%), and SU as a road favorite.
So are you ready to place some NFL Week 5 bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers!
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