National Football League

NFL odds Week 6 best bets: Bet on the Cowboys over the Patriots, more

Updated Oct. 15, 2021 12:43 p.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

After a fantastic weekend of NFL football in Week 5, the Week 6 slate looks outstanding!

Let's start in Cleveland for my best NFL bets, where the only undefeated team in the league is playing (with all NFL odds via FOX Bet).

For more, click here for your full NFL odds for Week 6, and check out the all-new "NFL Odds" section on FOXSports.com and the FOX Sports app for everything you need in the sports betting world.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5 at FOX Bet)

The Cardinals are the last undefeated team left in the NFL, but I'm predicting they'll suffer their first loss this upcoming weekend. One of the main reasons: The Cardinals are beat up. 

Center Rodney Hudson, the most underrated lineman in the NFL, has already been ruled out. When he left the game on Sunday, the offense had issues moving the ball. Arizona might also be without its star pass rusher, Chandler Jones, who was added to the COVID-19 list this week. And, after suffering a leg injury in Sunday's win, the Cardinals lost tight end Maxx Williams for the season. Arizona has also been without two corners, Murphy and Wilson, as they recover from rib injuries. Their status for this weekend is questionable.

Lastly, and most importantly, star quarterback Kyler Murray was added to the injury report with a right shoulder injury and was limited in practice this week. Something to keep a watch on.

Now, the Browns are not without injuries as well, as they'll be without two offensive linemen, Jadaveon Clowney, Greg Newsome, and potentially more. However, Cleveland's offensive system always functions on that side of the ball, even with injuries. The Browns have the best rushing attack in the NFL, and if the Cardinals have a weakness on their team, it's their rush defense. While Arizona ranks 13th in efficiency, it ranks 31st in yards per carry allowed. Look for Cleveland to exploit that matchup and control this game.

I do expect the Browns' defense to rebound from their awful performance in Los Angeles last weekend. Their defensive line has an advantage over the Cardinals' offensive line. And if Murray is genuinely beat up, that will slow down their offense. We saw this last season too when he wasn't 100%.

I'll take the Browns to win by a touchdown.

PICK: Cleveland (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5 at FOX Bet) @ New England Patriots

This bet is a heart-over-head pick for me. The Cowboys are 5-0 against the spread, yet they are historically one of the worst teams against the spread. Dallas is getting all the public support as a road favorite in this game. Sound the alarm because usually, that means time to hold your nose and take the Patriots, right?

But it's hard to make any case that New England will cover this game other than what I wrote above – historical trends. The Cowboys are far superior to the Patriots in almost every facet, including special teams, where New England has always had an advantage against others.

The Cowboys' offense is ranked fourth in overall efficiency, with their MVP candidate quarterback Dak Prescott leading the charge. Dallas has the highest-graded offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus. The Cowboys also have two running backs on pace for over 1100 yards on the ground. Dallas is a big-play machine with the weapons at receiver too, leading the NFL with nearly 10 big offensive plays a game.

On the other side, the Patriots are led by their defense, ranking ninth in DVOA. New England is better against the pass than the run, coming in at 22nd against rushing attacks. So the big question is, can they limit the Cowboys' attack? In theory, yes. 

But even if the Patriots hold the Cowboys to 24 points, will they score 20 points themselves? That's hard to believe. New England has scored 16, 25, 13, 17, and 25 points thus far. No matter how you slice it, the Pats do not have an explosive offense. Rookie QB Mac Jones is completing a high percentage of passes, but they do not go very far. The Patriots are near the bottom of the NFL in air yards per attempt, in big plays per game, and completions over 20 yards.

Their opponent is a Cowboys defense that has vastly improved from last season. Dallas ranks sixth in overall DVOA and has a balanced defense. The Cowboys force a ton of turnovers – well, Trevon Diggs forces turnovers, anyway.

The Patriots' offensive line is a shell of its old self with injuries and players out on the covid list. I don't expect the New England offense to score over 20 points without forcing turnovers. 

That is why I like the Cowboys to win by over a touchdown in this contest.

PICK: Dallas (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5 at FOX Bet) @ Washington Football Team 

Yes, the Chiefs' defense is awful. But so is the Football Team's. Both defenses are ranked 31st and 32nd in scoring. However, Kansas City's offense is still elite, ranking first in any efficiency metric you'd like to use. It just need to stop killing itself with turnovers and silly mistakes.

When breaking down the Washington Football Team, it's obvious they have such an up-and-down offense. It's a freaking roller coaster watching Taylor Heinicke play quarterback, and even the Chiefs defense should be better against this offense. K.C. can't be any worse, and with the return of Chris Jones, its defense should be better upfront in this matchup.

Also, Kansas City has played the toughest schedule in the NFL through five weeks. The Chiefs have faced four playoff teams, and in the one game against a non-playoff team, they smashed the Eagles. Kansas City is desperate for a bounce-back game, and the WFT is the perfect opponent.

I'll lay the points here with Patrick Mahomes.

PICK: Kansas City (-6.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6.5 points

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Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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