National Football League

NFL odds Week 6: Best bets for Jets-Packers, Patriots-Browns

Updated Oct. 16, 2022 12:00 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
Gambling Analyst

We took it on the chin with a 1-3 record last weekend.

Our best bets (17-8 YTD) are off to a strong start, and I’m rolling with five plays over the next few days. This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These are the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini

Don’t expect Illini quarterback Tommy DeVito to play.

Head coach Bret Bielema is understandably keeping this under wraps, but backup Artur Sitkowski has taken all the snaps with the first team at practice. Illinois doesn’t want to sacrifice DeVito’s health for the big picture, and it makes sense to give him the week off heading into a bye week.

So how does Illinois score? They beat Iowa 9-6 last week with Sitkowski under center for most of that game, and Minnesota’s defense is even better. Chase Brown is a special back, but it’ll be tough for him to hit home runs with the Golden Gophers stacking the box all afternoon.

PICK: Minnesota (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

USC Trojans at Utah Utes

I’ve been waiting weeks for this one.

Utah already has two losses this season [at Florida, at UCLA], but the Utes are a different animal at Rice-Eccles Stadium. The crowd will be absolutely bananas for USC’s arrival, and this is easily the toughest environment the Trojans will play in all season long.

USC has almost impossibly maintained an insane +14 turnover margin thanks to only committing one turnover through six games. Look for Utah’s pass rush to put plenty of pressure on Caleb Williams and force him into some off-balanced throws. Utah’s defense has 10 interceptions this season, and their defensive backs are very good at jumping routes.

The more physical team will win this game, and I give the edge to the Utes in the trenches on both sides of the football. I’m banking on a big game from Utah running back Tavion Thomas to get the home team over the top.

PICK: Utah (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points

Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels

I don’t think Bryan Harsin is long for the Auburn job.

The former Boise State head coach is 9-10, and things aren’t getting better. Auburn has already been blown out twice, and roadblocks remain at Mississippi State and at Alabama down the stretch.

After starting the season with five straight home games, the Tigers have reached the most challenging part of their schedule. They were blasted by Georgia 42-10 in Athens and now must regroup and face Ole Miss in Oxford.

I expect Lane Kiffin to smell blood in the water and ride Rebels running backs Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans to a second-half rout.

This one could get ugly.

PICK: Ole Miss (-15.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 15.5 points

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers

How can you lay over a touchdown with the Packers?

Green Bay hasn’t put together four solid quarters since beating Justin Fields and the lowly Chicago Bears a month ago. The Packers have played in way-too-tight games against Bailey Zappe and Daniel Jones the last two weeks and Aaron Rodgers is still getting acclimated with his wide receivers.

Meanwhile, this Jets offense is sneakily dangerous. New York has more speed and skill than you think, and receivers Corey Davis, Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore all provide different skill sets. This game could be a very interesting if Zach Wilson doesn’t throw multiple interceptions.

Take the points.

PICK: Jets (+7.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points (or win outright)

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns

I’m going against the grain with this play.

Most American sportsbooks opened this total at O/U 41.5, and we’ve seen it balloon to 43.5 at most shops. There’s a ton of respect for both running attacks, but running the ball melts clock. You must believe the defensive gameplans will be centered around stopping Nick Chubb and Rhamondre Stevenson. Stack the box and make Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe beat you.

Bill Belichick and Kevin Stefanski are both very conservative coaches, and they won’t force the issue with their backup quarterbacks. I expect this to be a game full of punts with field position being a priority.

Belichick has the book on his former quarterback, and Stefanski’s front seven will challenge Zappe.

I’ve got it 20-16 either way.

PICK: Under 43.5 points scored combined by both teams at FOX Bet

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.