National Football League

NFL odds Week 6 best bets: A four-team, seven-point teaser (and more)

Updated Oct. 15, 2021 4:19 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

How wild is Week 6 in the NFL shaping up to be? There are nine road favorites – and this is the first week with byes, so there are only 14 games!

Remember when home-field mattered? Road teams are covering against the spread at a 56 percent clip this year. Markets tend toward efficiency, so eventually, there will be some regression. Is that this week?

Let’s get to the games, starting with my individual game picks, followed up with an epic four-team, seven-point teaser you won't want to miss (with all NFL odds via FOX Bet).

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

The Bears defense under first-time defensive coordinator Sean Desai has dialed up some exotic looks since the season-opening loss to the Rams, holding the Bengals without a TD for 55 minutes and limiting the explosive Raiders to 4.3 yards per play. Three-safety looks are preventing big plays (the Rams had three passes of 35+ yards), and they’re willing to concede the run.

It has worked so far, but in walks Aaron Rodgers, who is 19-7 against the spread against the Bears in his career, including 4-0 ATS under Matt LaFleur. Green Bay’s offensive line is superior to those the Bears have pushed around (Bengals, Lions, Raiders). The one line they couldn’t bully – Cleveland – rushed for 215 yards and they held the ball for 39 minutes. Expect big things from Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

Rodgers has struggled under pressure this season, completing just 36 percent of his passes with two interceptions and no TDs. But teams have rarely blitzed Rodgers (just 27.7 percent of his drop backs), because you can’t run the risk of man coverage vs Davante Adams, who leads the NFL in receptions, yards, and 20+ yard catches. Can you get pressure without blitzing? The Bears have sent the 3rd fewest blitzes in the NFL this season, and are just 28th in pressure rate.

Any advantage you can find for the Bears may be offset by this: Chicago is dead last in the NFL in net yards per play (-1.46, yes, below the Jaguars and Lions).

PICK: Packers (-5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5 points

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns

As much as I like the Cardinals this season – I’m one of the few nationally who had them as a playoff team before Week 1 – this is a terrible spot for them, and Kyler Murray is hurt. A healthy Kyler Murray is an MVP candidate; to see how they struggle when he’s not healthy, go look at the second half of last season. Also, his center, Rodney Hudson, has been limited in practice this week with a rib injury. And the weather at First Energy Stadium Sunday is expected to feature 20 mph winds, and that’s on the heels of two straight days of rain.

Toss in the fact that Arizona’s best edge rusher, Chandler Jones, tested positive for Covid and would need two negative tests to play, you can see why I’m going against the Cardinals for the first time this season. Arizona comes in off back-to-back rugged divisional matchups, while the Browns are licking their wounds after blowing a 2-TD lead in LA to the Chargers.

If the wind limits Baker Mayfield, the Browns should have ample success on the ground against a Cardinals team permitting 5.4 yards per carry (31st in the NFL). Nick Chubb leads the NFL in 20+ yard carries (five), and he and Hunt will probably put up close to 200 yards rushing in an effort to keep Murray on the sideline. And let’s not forget that last week against the 49ers, rookie QB Trey Lance was able to drive into Arizona territory on eight of nine drives, but scored only 10 points (they went 1-for-5 on fourth down).

PICK: Browns (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Is Denver good? The Broncos have lost two in a row after three straight wins to start the season. Even if you chalk up the Ravens loss to Teddy Bridgewater’s concussion and missing the second half, how do you explain the loss in Pittsburgh, when the Broncos gave up 122 rushing yards to Najee Harris and gave up two pass plays of 50+ yards to Ben Roethlisberger?

The Raiders rank 30th in 1st half scoring (6.8 ppg), and Denver isn’t a team you want to dig a hole against because of their defensive line, which features three players that grade out in the Top 20 at their position (Von Miller, Mike Purcell, Shelby Harris).

Are the Raiders good? They’ve got the same problem after a hot start … and that was before this week's news.

This is simply a fade of the Raiders, who endured a tough week in which their coach resigned. Many will rush to back the Raiders because usually, it makes sense to back a team after it fires their coach. Except many of the players seemed to love Jon Gruden. They backed him over the weekend when the initial stories surfaced, and were audibly shaken in interviews by what went down this week. How will the offense respond?

There’s no denying it’s been a massive distraction, and now the question is whether the Broncos can capitalize.

PICK: Broncos (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points

Four-team, seven-point teaser

Teasers have been gold during this NFL season, and while you always want to tease through the key numbers of 3 and 7 - the two margins of victory NFL games land on the most - there aren’t many of those options this week. So, time to get creative.

New England Patriots teased up from +3.5 to +10.5

The Cowboys are a freight train, an NFL-best 5-0 ATS with an offense that nobody has been able to stop, and that includes the defending Super Bowl champs and supposedly-good Carolina, which once had strong defensive metrics.

The Patriots have faced two rookie QBs, a below-average Tua Tagovailoa and Jameis Winston, and then Tom Brady, the 44-year old, in the rain. They haven’t seen an offense like this, and the best counter for the Patriots is to have success with a ball-control offense to keep Dak on the sidelines. New England’s offense sputtered against the Texans, but they were down four starting offensive linemen.

Rookie QB Mac Jones is at his best when he does’t have to throw often, meaning if they fall behind, it’s a problem; the Pats are 0-3 when he attempts 35+ passes. Fortunately for the rookie, Dallas star CB Trevon Diggs missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury.

Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will be seeking revenge for Super Bowl 51, when his Falcons bottled up Tom Brady and company until the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. Dallas wins, but the Patriots keep it close.

Baltimore Ravens teased down from -3 to +4

You’re not going through the key number of 7, and crossing through zero doesn’t do much, but this is a play a.) on the Chargers always being in close games, and b.) the Ravens having a colossal special teams advantage. (The Ravens are second in special teams DVOA, featuring the best kicker of all-time in Justin Tucker … the Chargers are 29th, and have missed an NFL-high four extra points).

Somebody’s winning this by a field goal, and LA’s run defense is permitting a league-high 5.6 yards per carry. The Chargers are giving up 157 rushing yards per game, and are the only team to permit three teams to top the 180-yard mark this season. "But Jason, those are just counting stats, what do the advanced stats say?" Also bad: 31st in DVOA run defense.

So let's turn Baltimore from 3-point favorites into dogs of more than a FG and give ourselves some breathing room.

Indianapolis Colts teased down from -10 to -3

There hasn’t been much to like about the Colts through the first five weeks of the season, but if you followed this space during the preseason, you knew an1-4 start was possible. The Colts have played the NFL’s toughest schedule to date, with Seattle, LA, Tennessee and Baltimore a combined 13-6. What happened when they played a bad team? A relatively easy 27-17 road win over Miami.

But this is a divisional matchup, and the Texans – yes, with Deshaun Watson – played the far-superior Colts very close last year, with Indy winning by single digits and going 0-2 ATS. The teaser makes the most sense.

Los Angeles Rams teased down from -9.5 to -2.5

Early in the week, this number was 10 and headed higher, and then the Giants shockingly had QB Daniel Jones practice after his scary concussion. You can’t back the Giants at all with Mike Glennon; you can make a case for Jones, but usually only on the road, and even then it’s risky.

Sean McVay’s Rams lost some steam after the defeat against Arizona, and this is a strong spot for them off extra rest - McVay is 6-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite, with two of those non-covers coming last year, Jared Goff’s last at QB.

Dak Prescott averaged 9.4 yards per attempt and hit five different pass catchers with 20+ yard passes last week. Matt Stafford should be able to do the same.

J-Mac's four-team teaser:
Patriots teased up from +3.5 to +10.5
Ravens teased down from -3 to +4
Colts teased down from -10 to -3
Rams teased down from -9.5 to -2.5

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Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.