NFL odds Week 6: Mahomes a home underdog for first time, best betting trends
Week 6 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to keep giving you the edges needed to make a profit!
Last week’s piece pointed out a few winners. Four road underdogs of seven or more points covered against the spread (ATS) and the Buffalo Bills improved to 7-2-2 ATS (77.8%) and 10-1 straight up (SU) (90.9%) as double-digit favorites under Sean McDermott. Also, two of the four matchups with an Over/Under of 43 points or fewer hit the Over.
As always, we did a deep dive into the data to identify the best trends of the week. We also looked at more coach- and player-specific trends, which should help inform you on who to bet on this week.
Let's jump into it and have some fun!
Underdogs have been dominant through five weeks, Week 6 should be no different
Last week we saw underdogs absolutely crush it, going 10-6 ATS (62.5%), with five of them winning SU as well. Since the season started, underdogs have gone a whopping 47-31-2 ATS (60.3%). That is the highest cover percentage for underdogs through the first five weeks of the season since 2010 when underdogs went 46-28-2 ATS (62.2%).
When looking specifically at Week 6 from a historical perspective, underdogs show a strong trend for covering:
- Since 2015: 61-35-3 ATS (63.5%)
- Since 2010: 97-68-5 ATS (58.8%)
- Since 2005: 130-100-7 ATS (56.5%)
- Since 2000: 168-130-8 ATS (56.4%)
- Since 1990: 223-190-15 ATS (54%)
- Since 1980: 297-240-16 ATS (55.3%)
The underdogs and favorites for each matchup this week are shown in the tweet below, with odds coming from FOX Bet.
Falcons have covered against NFC West opponents in recent years
The Atlanta Falcons have arguably been the season's biggest surprise thus far, already earning two wins despite their Over/Under win total being set around five across most sportsbooks. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS, the only team with a perfect cover rate thus far. The last time Atlanta was 5-0 ATS was the 1969 season, which was the last year before the NFL and AFL officially merged.
While FOX Bet currently has the Falcons as 5.5-point underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers, we like them to continue their trend of covering. Since 2014, they are 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and 8-8 SU (50%) against NFC West opponents and 5-3 ATS (62.5%) and SU against the 49ers since 2005 in the regular season.
San Francisco is also just 5-8 ATS (38.5%) when a five to eight-point favorite under Kyle Shanahan, as well as 9-9 ATS (50%) as road favorites in regular season games under his watch.
The Commanders should cover against the Bears
This Thursday, FOX Bet currently has the Washington Commanders as one-point underdogs against the Chicago Bears. Washington comes into this game fresh off a loss against the Tennessee Titans. Our data pointed to various trends that favor the Commanders. Here’s a look at the most notable ones:
- Commanders are 11-3 ATS (78.6%) and SU against the Bears since 1991 in the regular season
- Commanders are 8-1 ATS (88.9%) and 7-2 SU (77.8%) on the road against the Bears since 1981 in the regular season
- Commanders have hit the over in 9 of their last 11 (81.8%) Thursday games
- Bears are 5-14 ATS (26.3%) against NFC East opponents in the regular season since 2013
UPDATE: The Commanders covered, defeating the Bears 12-7.
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Historical data points towards Panthers covering against Rams
Baker Mayfield has been ruled out this Sunday in the Carolina Panthers matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. Still, trends say that Carolina has a solid chance of covering against the defending Super Bowl champions. Since 2014, the Panthers are 6-3 ATS (66.7%) when eight to 11-point underdogs and also 7-6-2 ATS (53.8%) and 8-7 SU (53.3%) against NFC West opponents since 2015.
Furthermore, the Panthers fired Matt Rhule earlier this week after hiring him in 2020. While this might be another indicator to bet against Carolina, here’s a surprising nugget on teams in this situation:
- Over the last 20 seasons, 32 teams have fired their coach during the regular season. Those teams have gone 15-17 SU (46.9%) and 17-15 ATS (53.1%) in the week after firing their coach.
Let’s also not forget that P.J. Walker will be starting for the Panthers in this matchup. He is 2-0 ATS and SU for his career as a starter. Additionally, the Rams are just 2-4-1 ATS (33.3%) and 2-5 SU (28.6%) against the Panthers since 2004 in the regular season. They’re also tied for the worst cover rate in the league at 1-4 ATS (20%) this season. FOX Bet currently has the Panthers as 10.5-point underdogs.
Chargers should cover vs. Broncos
This one should be obvious, as the Denver Broncos have struggled all year, scoring over 20 points in just one of five games and falling to 1-4 ATS. The Los Angeles Chargers, on the other hand, improved to 4-1 ATS (80%) last week and come in as 5.5-point favorites against Denver.
Here are some trends that point towards the Chargers taking care of business in the Monday night matchup:
- Broncos are 5-8 ATS (38.5%) and 2-11 SU (15.4%) against AFC West opponents in the regular season since 2020
- Broncos are 3-7 ATS (30%) and SU in their last 10 regular season road games
- Broncos are 4-10-1 ATS (28.6%) and 5-10 (33.3%) in Monday games since 2010
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Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog for the first time in career
Not so much of a trend here as it is a good nugget, but the significance of Patrick Mahomes' dominance in his career can’t be emphasized enough. Since his first career start at home in 2018, the sixth-year quarterback has NEVER been an underdog in Arrowhead Stadium in both the playoffs and regular season.
FOX Bet currently has the Kansas City Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs against the Bills, with that line having moved one point in Buffalo’s direction after the Chiefs’ narrow one-point win against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night.
Here’s what the betting data looks like for Mahomes overall for his career, including both the regular season and playoffs:
- 7-0-1 ATS and 6-2 SU (75%) as a starter when an underdog (all 8 instances coming on the road in the regular season)
- 3-1 ATS (75%) and 3-1 SU as a starter against the Bills
- 7-3 ATS (70%) and 7-3 SU as a starter against AFC East opponents
- 4.5 is the most points he’s been given as a starter when an underdog, coming against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 2 matchup in 2018
- 21-20 ATS (51.2%) and 33-8 SU (80.5%) as a starter at home
This game will be fun to watch!
So are you ready to place some NFL Week 6 bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers!
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