National Football League

NFL odds week 6: Sportsbooks win thanks to underdogs, upsets

Updated Oct. 17, 2022 11:50 a.m. ET

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By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer

For NFL bettors and bookmakers alike, Oct. 16 couldn’t arrive fast enough this season. There's no question the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs rematch was circled in red on the NFL Week 6 odds board.

And while Sunday’s edition didn’t turn into the wild scorefest of last season’s AFC playoff game, it was compelling to the finish and got a different ending, to boot.

So how did the sportsbooks do to arguably the biggest game of the regular season? Let’s call it a mixed bag.

Circle the Wagons

In the epic January postseason game, Buffalo lost the overtime coin toss and never touched the ball. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City drove down the field, scored a touchdown to win 42-36 and covered as 2.5-point home favorites.

The Chiefs were again at home this time, but interestingly, the Bills were 2.5-point favorites. With 1:04 left in the fourth quarter, Josh Allen found Dawson Knox on a 14-yard touchdown pass, giving Buffalo a 24-20 lead.

But that also left 1:04 for Mahomes to work some magic. This time, though, he threw an INT, allowing the Bills to gain some measure of revenge. At least one sportsbook was just fine with that result.

"The Bills covering was the best individual result of the day," said Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook.

Prior to kickoff, SuperBook executive director John Murray noted a K.C. money surge led to a Buffalo need behind the counter.

"Some big late bets on the Chiefs," Murray said.

That said, both the Bills and Chiefs drew a ton of betting action, so the results weren’t necessarily the same from sportsbook to sportsbook.

"The Bills were a loser for us," BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said.

Beat-Up Bettors

Beyond the split results for Bills-Chiefs, bettors generally had a rough Sunday in the NFL Week 6 odds market. That’s what happens when underdogs bark loud and often early in the day.

The New York Jets went to Green Bay as 7.5-point underdogs and knocked out the Packers 27-10. The New York Giants, 5.5-point home ‘dogs to Baltimore, nabbed a 24-20 outright win.

And the Pittsburgh Steelers, who just a week earlier got trucked at Buffalo 38-3, put the clamps on Tom Brady and Co. The Steelers, 10-point home underdogs, shocked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-18.

All those games were in the early window Sunday. So, too, was the Atlanta Falcons’ 28-14 home victory as 3.5-point pups against the San Francisco 49ers. (More on Atlanta in a moment.)

"It was a winning day, but the first slate made all the money," BetMGM’s Scott said.

Added The SuperBook’s Degnon: "The Steelers and Jets not only covering but winning outright was a great result for us, killing a bunch of parlays and teasers."

Over at WynnBet, three early upsets and one late outright underdog win were key.

"The Jets, Giants, Steelers and Seahawks getting there were definitely great for the book," WynnBet senior trader Chris Youn said.

In a rock fight of a game, Seattle – a 2.5-point home underdog – beat the Arizona Cardinals 19-9.

The NFL’s Best Bet

Now then, about those Falcons. Not much was expected from Atlanta this season, with most sportsbooks posting the Falcons’ season win total at 5 or 5.5. But Atlanta is already more than halfway there, sitting at 3-3 straight up (SU).

Much more relevant for purposes of this report: The Falcons are 6-0 against the spread (ATS). No other team in the league can match that record, and bettors are definitely starting to figure that out.

Sharp bettors – those who make a living in this business – were already on the Falcons in prior weeks. But they didn’t back off at all in Week 6, and the pros were proven correct. That was much to the chagrin of the South Point sportsbook’s risk room.

"The Bengals were bad for us, the Vikings were bad for us, and the Falcons were horrible," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. "We opened [Atlanta] +6 and closed +3.5, and it was sharp play all the way down. Wiseguys were on the Falcons like they already knew the final score."

Still, Andrews said it was a winning NFL week at his shop.

"A good day, but probably not as good as you’d think," he said. "We won two big games, with the Steelers beating the Bucs and the Jets beating the Packers."

WynnBet’s Youn echoed Andrews’ sentiments on Cincinnati and Minnesota. The Bengals, 3-point favorites, posted a 30-26 comeback win and cover at New Orleans. The Vikings, 3.5-point favorites at Miami, won 24-16.

"Sizable losses were taken on the Bengals and Vikings," Youn said.

On Campus

In the college ranks, obviously, the Alabama-Tennessee game was a huge decision for all sportsbooks. And pretty much universally, the Vols’ 52-49 outright victory as 9-point home underdogs was fantastic for bettors, as outlined in this FOX Sports piece.

But there was more to Saturday than ‘Bama-Tennessee. The Vols’ upset win wasn’t enough to put bettors over the Rocky Top at The SuperBook.

"It was a good Saturday for the book," Degnon said. "Michigan putting it on Penn State in Ann Arbor was our best result. LSU winning in The Swamp was also very good for us."

The Wolverines closed as 7-point favorites and pounded the Nittany Lions 41-17. LSU was a modest 1.5-point road underdog and took out Florida 45-35.

With only a couple of exceptions, WynnBet had a solid Saturday, too.

"Tennessee and Oklahoma State covering were our biggest decisions, and they did not go our way. Besides that, we had decent outcomes on the rest of the games," Youn said.

Oklahoma State was a trendy underdog at Texas Christian. Although the Cowboys lost 43-40, they covered the 5-point spread.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Caesars Sports had a couple of high rollers toss around some money on NFL Week 6 odds. One customer made a pair $110,000 bets – with each representing a potential $100,000 win – on the Panthers +10 vs. the Rams, and on the Vikings-Dolphins Under on a total of 46.

The Carolina wager came up a few points short, as the Panthers lost 24-10. But Minnesota and Miami combined for just 40 points in the Vikes’ 24-16 win, countering the bettor’s $110,000 loss with a $100,000 win.

The Chiefs drew a $57,500 play at +3 (-115) against the Bills. Alas, the Chiefs lost by four, 24-20, so that’s another winner for the bookmakers.

And while Caesars didn’t specify the exact number of bets or the amount wagered, the Denver Broncos have taken multiple spread bets of at least $55,000 for the Monday night road game against the Los Angeles Chargers. Denver is a 4.5-point underdog.

Being a Broncos fan and having seen the product they’ve put on the field of late, I wouldn’t bet $55,000 of your money on Denver, let alone my own cash. But that’s just me.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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