National Football League

NFL odds Week 6: Underdogs will cover, early best bets

Updated Oct. 13, 2022 8:01 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

You guys all know the saying never judge the size of the dog in the fight. Well, this week, we're remixing that to make it "the underdog gets the payout" because it's all about being a dog in these NFL Week 6 wagers.

So with that in mind, here are my best bets for Week 6 (odds via FOX Bet).

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Buccaneers at Steelers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Pittsburgh stinks. The Steelers might be the worst team in football, but I will back them here.

First, Tomlin’s teams are fantastic against the spread at home. Second, this is Kenny Pickett’s first home start, and I would expect improvement from the offense after scoring only three points against Buffalo. Pickett only turned the ball over once and played better than the box score suggests. The biggest issue for the Steelers' offense on Sunday was their 0-for-4 performance in the red zone. They can’t be worse on Sunday against the Bucs.

I’m always optimistic about a Tom Brady team. He’s the best ever, and no matter how shaky his team might look, he has shown over and over again it might not matter. However, I’m losing my optimism as the Bucs seem to be stuck in the mud. They lost to the Packers, got blown out by the Chiefs, and without a horrendous roughing the passer call against Grady Jarrett, the Falcons would have the ball driving to win on Sunday.

I’m just not sure the Bucs are all that good right now, and this is the perfect spot to buy against them. This is a lowly Steelers team that no one believes in, facing a Tampa Bay team that is better on paper than they’ve played.

PICK: Steelers (+8 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 8 points (or win outright)

49ers at Falcons (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

The Atlanta Falcons are 2-3 on the season but have covered all five football games they’ve played. They are feisty, and they seem to pick up steam as the game grows longer. They’ve been able to claw back into football games with their diverse rushing attack that ranked second before last weekend.

Like most teams whose primary method of offense is running the ball, it takes some game minutes to get comfortable getting into a rhythm with the ground attack. The Falcons have another opportunity this weekend to keep a game close with a larger point spread.

The 49ers easily dispatched the Panthers on Sunday, but that win came at a cost. Their best cornerback, Jimmie Ward, will miss time with a wrist injury and their best pass rusher, Nick Bosa, left the game with a groin injury. The 49ers were already without Arik Armstead and Kinlaw in Carolina. Without three starting defensive linemen, the Falcons' offense will control the line of scrimmage.

The 49ers offense should move the ball well enough against this Falcons defense. However, I do like the matchup of Falcons' defensive tackle Grady Jarrett against any of the Niners' interior linemen. He’s good enough to make things very difficult for Jimmy G.

I do not think the Falcons will win the game, but I’ll take them to cover the 5.5 points

PICK: Falcons (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)

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Cardinals at Seahawks (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

The wrong team is the favorite in this matchup of bird mascots. Seattle is the better team right now, and it’s not close. Seattle is 10th in overall DVOA and has the top-ranked offense, averaging 6.6 yards per play. I did not predict Geno Smith leading the most efficient offense in the NFL!

The Cardinals defense is 26th and does nothing well. They are ranked 32nd by Pro Football Focus in coverage, which is not ideal against this potent Seattle passing attack.

The Seahawks can be had on defense, where they are not good. However, can the Cardinals offense take advantage? I don’t see any evidence of that. Arizona is 27th in yards per play. They are 21st in run blocking and 14th in pass protection. Their offense always looks disjointed, and playing in Seattle won’t help their cause.

Also, it's worth noting that Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury is awful against the spread as a favorite, only covering eight of 22 games. Meanwhile, Pete Carroll is over 60% as an underdog coming off a loss. I’ll take the Seahawks here.

PICK: Seahawks (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

Broncos at Chargers (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Broncos Country, Let’s Ride! I will continue to fade Russell Wilson’s quarterback passing yards prop number. Fox Bet is giving me 241.5 yards, and I’ll gladly take the Under.

Wilson was well under this number before overtime last weekend, putting him under 241 yards in four of the Broncos games. He’s completing only 59.4% of his passes, and he’s ranked 25th in expected points added for quarterback. Now Wilson is on the road and facing a Chargers defense that is far better at stopping the pass than the run. The Chargers are ranked 12th in DVOA for passing defense, and they are allowing 237.6 passing yards per game.

The Broncos will use their rushing attack for yards and to avoid Wilson making mistakes. Also, Russ' hurt lat muscle, or whatever excuse they are using for his poor play, could slow him down even more.

PICK: Russell Wilson Under 241.5 passing yards at FOX Bet

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.