National Football League

NFL odds Week 7: Look for underdogs to bark, picks of the week

Updated Oct. 21, 2022 1:26 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

It’s time to look ahead to some Week 7 wagers I like before the lines move.

I’m backing a hot team and fading another that was once the favorite to win their conference.

This week, I'm looking at the underdogs to do some barking. Let's dive into my best early bets for this weekend (odds via FOX Bet).

Is Aaron Rodgers to blame for Packers struggles this season?

New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

The Giants are 5-1, tying the Vikings for the second-best record in the NFC through six weeks. The Giants' refusal to give up on games is the reason they've been so successful this season. Here's a good stat to know: New York is the fourth team in NFL history to have three wins through six games while being outscored by 10 points or more in the second half. The team's defense has toughened up in the back half of games, and the offense continues to take advantage of opportunities. This offense does everything possible to avoid having their quarterback drop back and pass. The Giants also understand they have no healthy receiving options, and their interior offensive line is suspect. The coaching staff deserves so much credit for achieving this record through six games.

The Jaguars started the season with three straight wins, and the hype train was building steam – my big butt even jumped on the train. The Jaguars played clean football. They didn’t allow many points, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence started off hot. Now, they have cooled off, losing three straight games. No shame in losing, but it’s more about how they’ve lost. They lost to the Eagles, who are now 6-0. No biggie there. But then they scored six points in a home loss to the Texans and allowed 34 points to the Colts. The Colts, mind you, are a team that can’t move the ball. Jacksonville has regressed back to the mean.

The Jaguars have the edge at most positions in this game — at quarterback, with their offensive and defensive lines and maybe even coaching. However, it’s hard to wager against the Giants at the moment, especially when they cover a ton of games on the road with quarterback Daniel Jones. This number is still at 3, which is juicy, and I’ll grab it now.

PICK: Giants (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

The Panthers are not a good football team. They recently fired their coach. They have one win in six games with a minus-43 point differential. That's good for last in the NFC. The Panthers are on their third-string quarterback, and any player with a pulse is rumored to be on the trade market. However, Tampa Bay is a stinky fish right now, and I’ll be glad to take the Panthers getting double-digit points in this game.

Let's look at the Bucs past four games. They had a 12-point scoring output in a loss to the Packers, a 21-point loss to the Chiefs, a six-point win at home against the Falcons, and lastly, an embarrassing loss on the road against the lowly Steelers. The Bucs are a wildly inconsistent team right now. The defense is excellent until it’s not, as evidenced by allowing Mitch Trubisky and a bad Steelers offense to convert on multiple third-and-long situations. The Bucs offense is disjointed and poor in the red zone.

I’m not one to often question Tom Brady, but it does appear his weekly schedule is not helping his play. Having a day off a week at his age is appropriate, and enjoying oneself off the field is encouraged. However, when you’ve been successful in your career with a rigid schedule of preparation and that schedule is much different this season, the results on the field speak for themselves.

The Bucs are just not trustworthy, and 10 points is way too much to spot a team on the road.

PICK: Panthers (+10 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 10 points (or win outright)

Saints at Cardinals (8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime Video)

I can’t believe I’m going to say this. I’m wagering on the Cardinals and the Under. Yes, they stink right now. However, this game is one where they have some advantages.

The Cards are healthier. The Saints are traveling to Arizona as the walking-wounded. They are without Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Andrus Peat and Adam Trautman on offense. Marshon Lattimore, their best defensive back, is also out. And then, as bad as Arizona has been, are we sure the Saints are any better right now? The Saints are only slightly better than the Cardinals in efficiency numbers and have just two wins. The first was in Week 1 against the Falcons where they needed 17 fourth-quarter points to win. The second was against the Seahawks, and the Saints needed a heroic performance from Taysom Hill to win that game.

The biggest advantage the Cardinals have tonight is the return of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins who's back from a six-game suspension. Since 2021, the Cardinals offense and quarterback Kyler Murray have been drastically better with Hopkins in the lineup. They are 8-2 when Hopkins is there and 3-7 when he's not. With DeAndre in the lineup, Murray completes a higher percentage of passes, has more yards, more touchdowns and has a better passer rating. This is a huge boost for the confidence of the Cardinals offense.

Finally, the Under. The Under has hit in four of the five Thursday Night Football games this season. The Cardinals have gone under the number in eight of their last 11 games. I mentioned the injuries above that might slow down the Saints offense. Well, the Cardinals are without two starting offensive linemen tonight, which will slow down their offensive attack even more.

I’ll take the Under and the Cardinals.

PICK: Under 43.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
PICK: Cardinals (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Texans at Raiders (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

I'm riding with the Texans and the points in this matchup.

It's always best to take the underdog when two teams that are close in talent are playing each other. Both the Texans and Raiders are coming off a bye. Both of these teams have one win. The Raiders rank 24th in DVOA while the Texans rank 28th. The Raiders have more playmakers on paper, with Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby leading the way. However, don't sleep on some of the young talent playing well for the Texans like running back Dameon Pierce and rookie defensive backs Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr.

The Texans have covered four of their five games while the Raiders have only covered two games.

I'll take the Texans getting a full touchdown here.

PICK: Texans (+7 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!