National Football League

NFL odds Week 7: A three-team, seven-point teaser you need to bet

Updated Oct. 23, 2021 5:05 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Well, guys. It happened. It took seven weeks before I could barely find a single side I loved this weekend. These lines are stinky. BUT, there are plenty of other ways to enjoy wagering on an NFL Sunday, and I'll give you a few bets to think about.

Check out my four best bets for NFL Week 7, including my favorite three-team, seven-point teaser of the week (with odds via FOX Bet).

For more, click here for your full NFL odds for Week 7, and check out the all-new "NFL Odds" section on FOXSports.com and the FOX Sports app for everything you need in the sports betting world.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans (Total 57.5 at FOX Bet)

I'm taking the over in this battle of two high-scoring offenses against two defenses that allow points at an alarming rate. I understand the public is hammering the over, and the number is unusually high. Contrary to what I believed before the research, when a total is this high, the over has hit at a high rate.

Since 2013, there have been 22 games in the NFL with a total of over 57. 18 of those games have gone over. It appears good offenses going against poor defenses play out exactly as we'd expect them to.

The Chiefs offense averages 3.07 points per drive, the best in the NFL. These numbers are even better when considering Kansas City leads the NFL with 16 turnovers. If KC can cut down on their foolish mistakes, it will score even more.

The Titans' offense can also put up points, as they rank 10th in points per drive, coming in at 2.37 per drive.

The Chiefs' defense started poorly but has improved recently. They allowed only a single touchdown in the second half against the Bills and just 13 points, all in the first half, against the Washington Football Team. But, even with a better performance lately, they rank 31st in defensive DVOA and allow a fourth-worst 2.68 points per drive. The Titans are barely better, coming in ranked 21st, allowing 2.31 points per drive.

This game will be an offensive explosion. Take the over and don't look back.

PICK: OVER 57.5 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet

Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams (-15.5 at FOX Bet)

Conventional wisdom would tell us to take the over in passing yards, as Jared Goff's Lions will surely be behind in the fourth quarter.

I'm going to zag here and take the under because, simply put, Goff is not good. He even got called out by his head coach, and when asked if there were any positives from the Bengals loss, Lions offensive coordinator said, "not a damn thing."

I can see where someone might think, well, Goff has something to prove this week, and it's a revenge game for him going back to Los Angeles. Or, maybe, Goff and the Lions' offense just isn't good, and no matter how much his coaching staff gets upset with his play, it will not change anything. Goff ranks 27th in efficiency, and the Lions' overall offense ranks 28th in DVOA.

He has been behind in every 4th quarter this season, so you'd think in the final few minutes Goff would rack up the passing yards. Sadly, he's at a measly 53 passing yards per game in the last four minutes of a game. He's only averaging 134 yards in the first three quarters. No matter how you cut it, this offense just isn't dynamic, even when it's time to throw.

The Rams pass defense also ranks 4th in DVOA and has allowed over 260 yards just twice this season, and one of those was 262 yards.

I will wager on the Rams kicking the Lions' butts and containing Goff.

PICK: Jared Goff under 260 passing yards at FOX Bet

Houston Texans (+18 at FOX Bet) @ Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals are better than the Houston Texans. They should probably smash the Texans. However, what a team should do doesn't always mean they will, especially in gambling.

The Cardinals come into this game riding high. Everyone is praising them, and they deserve the love. They are supposed to blow out the Texans and move it along. However, this is a perfect letdown spot for the Cardinals before a massive Thursday night game against the Packers just four days after the Texans game.

Houston was embarrassed last week in Indianapolis, and the last time the Texans were blown out, they covered the following week against the Patriots.

I'll go with a hunch here that this game is far closer than people expect.

PICK: Texans (+18 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 18 points (or win outright)

Three-team, seven-point teaser

Green Bay Packers teased from -8.5 to -1.5 vs. Washington Football Team
New England Patriots teased from -7 to pick 'em vs. New York Jets
Tennessee Titans teased from +4 to +11 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Vegas has been getting crushed by teasers this season, and it appears it made a bunch of games teaser-proof this weekend. But I'm going to take a stab at it anyway.

Let's start with the Packers, who will beat the Washington Football Team by more than a field goal. The Packers are in the same spot as the Cardinals, with a massive Thursday night game looming on the horizon, so I could see a sluggish performance to start. However, Washington appears to have given up on their season. Their last two weeks have seen blowout losses to the Saints and Chiefs, two potential playoff teams just like the Packers.

Next, the Patriots have never lost to a rookie quarterback at home under Bill Belichick. While those numbers are mainly with Tom Brady, this Jets team isn't going to be the one to break that streak. We just need the Patriots to win by 1 point. I'll take it.

Lastly, as mentioned above, the Titans-Chiefs game will be high-scoring. I can not see a situation where the Titans lose by more than seven points, let alone the 11 points I get on the teaser. Their offense is too good, and the Chiefs' defense isn't good enough. Take the points.

PICK: Packers teased to -1.5; Patriots teased to pick 'em; Titans teased to +11

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Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.