National Football League

NFL odds Week 9: Bengals over Browns is the bet you need to make (and more)

Updated Nov. 4, 2021 5:01 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Are you ready for some football? The anticipated matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers is no more, Derrick Henry is missing for the Titans and no chance Mike White has another big performance.

My favorite wagers for Week 9 of the NFL season are here, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-10 at FOX Bet)

This one is easy for me. Fade Mike White.

In his first NFL start, last weekend, Jets quarterback Mike White threw for over 400 yards. White is not that good, but he's getting praised like he's Tom Brady. It all comes crashing down to earth tonight.

The Colts pass defense is only ranked 21st by Football Outsiders, but they've only allowed over 250 passing yards twice in eight games. 270 yards to Matt Stafford and over 400 to Lamar Jackson as the Ravens made a furious comeback in the fourth quarter. White isn't close to either quarterback's caliber.

Look for the Indianapolis defense to be focused on stopping Mike White after his big performance on Sunday. It's also a short preparation week for the quarterback, and he's on the road. It will be a rough night for the Jets' offense.

PICK: Mike White under 250.5 passing yards at FOX Bet

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-3 at FOX Bet)

This side feels too apparent, which has me worried about taking the Bengals, but I have my reasons.

Before we get to them, let's discuss their opponent. The Browns are a massive disappointment this season. I, along with others, had plenty of hope for this team. The Browns are 4-4, which isn't bad, but they've also lost to the four teams who have a pulse on their schedule.

The team blew double-digit leads to the Chiefs and Chargers, got dominated by the Cardinals at home and just lost to the Steelers — who can't move the ball on offense.

Also, Baker Mayfield is hurting, their offensive line is beaten up, one of their wide receivers has been banned from the team and their new secondary has been poor defensively. The Browns rank 25th against the pass.

Now, after spending the good part of last month at home, the Browns head on the road against the Bengals.

Yes, the Bengals lost to the Jets, but that is a wake-up call for a team that is new to winning. It's hard to win every week in the NFL, and if you take off one week, you lose. The Bengals learned their lesson and will not make that mistake this weekend.

I'm expecting the best performance of the season from the Bengals, and for them to beat the Browns by more than a field goal.

PICK: Cincinnati (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points

Houston Texans (+6 at FOX Bet) at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are not a good football team, as they are 1-7 and have lost seven in a row.

Everything the 'Fins did well last season, mostly defense and special teams, has reverted to the opposite direction this year. Offensively, yes, they have Tua back in the lineup, but he's playing with the worst offensive line in football.

The Texans are also 1-7, and most of the team's losses have not been competitive. The team also continues to purge its roster. However, they have the better defense and special teams in this matchup.

The big reason I like this wager is quarterback Tyrod Taylor is supposed to return to the Texans' offense. With Taylor back at the helm, I like the Texans to win this game outright. Even if he doesn't return, Davis Mills will lead Houston to the cover.

Either way, the Dolphins are not 6-points better than any team this season.

PICK: Texans (+6 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 6 points (or win outright)

Two-team, 6-point Teaser

Kansas City -7 to -1

The Chiefs are hosting the Packers, who are down one Aaron Rodgers. If the Chiefs can't win this game, their season is over.

The Chiefs have significant issues on offense, like turnovers, poor play in the pocket by Mahomes, offensive tackles that can be inconsistent, not enough downhill rushing attempts and more. But if the team fixes any one of these issues, they will start to score in high gear again.

The Chiefs' defense is terrible on the other side of the ball, but they've been playing better of late. If the defense can't get stops against Jordan Love, they probably need to pack up the season and get ready for 2022.

The Chiefs will win this game, and I like them teased down to -1.

Los Angeles Rams -7.5 to -1.5

I already liked the Rams before the Derrick Henry injury news. Once news broke that Henry is out for months, the line jumped above a touchdown, so the value isn't there.

The Rams are a far better team than the Titans, ranking an entire 16 teams higher in efficiency. The Titans still have issues in pass defense, on third down and generating pressure. And now Henry, who accounts for a whopping 37% of the offense, is out this weekend? Good luck.

The Rams will win this game, and I'll take them under the field goal.

Geoff's Two-Team Teaser:

Chiefs -1
Rams -1.5

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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