National Football League

NFL odds Week 9: Bet on the Browns to upset the Bengals (and more)

Updated Nov. 5, 2021 9:14 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Let this week be known as "Quarterback injury week." This weekend, there are at least nine teams with unknown/ shaky QB situations, primarily because of injuries — the biggest being Kyler Murray in Arizona, which we'll touch on below.

But the list is long and distinguished: Sam Darnold/PJ Walker; Dak Prescott (probably going to play after missing last week); Tyrod Taylor likely going to return for the Texans; Tua Tagovailoa limited at practice (thumb); Matt Ryan (stitches in hand after getting stepped on); Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian; Jordan Love making his first career start for Green Bay; Matt Stafford (missed the first practice of the season with a back problem); and Justin Herbert of the Chargers, who has been limited at practice this week with an injury to his throwing hand.

Yes, the backup quarterbacks delivered last week, but expecting that trend to continue is like expecting my teasers to continue hitting every week.

If you prefer early-week betting and getting ahead of the market, this is a tough week. Expect a chaotic Sunday, which is saying something, given last week featured the season's biggest upset (Jets over Bengals as 10.5-point underdogs) and underdogs going 9-6 against the spread (ATS).

Time for some action. Let's get to my favorite bets for Week 9, with odds via FOX Bet.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+1 at FOX Bet)

This game will look different from the earlier meeting when rookie quarterback Trey Lance kept the 49ers close, ultimately failed on four of five fourth-down attempts, and Arizona prevailed, 17-10.

The 49ers averaged 5.7 yards per play to Arizona's 5.1 but were unable to complete drives — something Jimmy Garoppolo should have more success doing thanks to the likely addition of tight end George Kittle from IR.

On the other side, the Cardinals are very beat up, with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins missing practice all week and J.J. Watt being lost for the season.

Kliff Kingsbury had lost three of four to Kyle Shanahan before the October loss. San Francisco is 0-3 at home this season, but it should be able to snap that losing skid against veteran Colt McCoy.

As Arizona's injuries mount, the 49ers are slowly getting healthier, with running back Jeff Wilson possibly returning to a backfield that injuries have decimated.

Give me the Niners.

PICK: San Francisco (+1 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 1 point (or win outright)

Cleveland Browns (+2.5 at FOX Bet) at Cincinnati Bengals

You're sick of me betting on the Browns and losing. So am I. They've cost me money against the Steelers, Cardinals and Chargers this season. There's not a bigger difference between the eye test (poor) and the analytics (impressive — the sixth-best team in the NFL per DVOA; second in the NFL in net yards per play) on any team in the NFL than Cleveland.

Nobody will back them this week on the road given the Odell Beckham distraction, the injuries and the offensive woes (they haven't scored more than 14 points in four of the last five games).

The public, meanwhile, is going all-in on the Bengals despite the loss to the Jets last week. The two weeks prior, they hammered the Lions and Ravens on the road in back-to-back weeks. But this isn't a great matchup for Joe Burrow, as nobody runs on the Browns (No. 3 DVOA run defense, first in yards per catch allowed), and his offensive line crumbled badly against the Jets (sacked three times). That means this game will be won through the air.

Denzel Ward playing would be huge for the Browns, as their young secondary will likely be without safety John Johnson. Burrow leads the NFL with 24 completions of 25+ yards — but also is top with five interceptions in the fourth quarter.

Everyone's calling for a shootout given both games last year, and the Bengals just gave up 30 plus points and 400 plus yards to Mike White of the Jets. Instead, I'd project a low-scoring game as both teams go conservative, not wanting to make costly mistakes in a big divisional game that the Browns absolutely cannot afford to lose.

One more note, big money moved this line off the Bengals getting a field goal at home.

PICK: Cleveland (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 (or win outright)

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (+3.5 at FOX Bet)

If you followed me last week on the Panthers, you held your nose all the way, and you were able to cash a Carolina ticket despite QB Sam Darnold getting knocked out of the game in the fourth quarter.

Well, I'm going back to the Panthers again, even though it seems as if Darnold is not going to be the starter (concussion). Maybe that's a good thing, given Bill Belichick is the coach who had him "seeing ghosts" last year.

If Christian McCaffrey returns from the IR, it's a massive boost for the Panthers' offense, but this is more about their defense. Carolina quietly has a top-10 DVOA defense, and Shaq Thompson's return was a significant reason they held the Falcons to 82 rushing yards on 20 carries — he led the team with 10 tackles. And Stephon Gilmore clinched the win with a fourth-quarter interception in his debut.

The Panthers' front seven should control the Patriots' run game, forcing Mac Jones to try and beat them through the air, and I'm not sure the rookie QB can go on the road for a second straight week and deliver a win.

The final score said Mac Jones beat the Chargers — he was 18-of-35 for 217 yards — but it was an overall poor performance.

This one will be low-scoring. While I'm not sure how Carolina's offense manufactures points, I love getting the hook at home.

PICK: Under 41 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

PICK: Carolina (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)

Four-point, 7-point TEASER at FOX Bet

Los Angeles Rams -7.5 to -.5

The Titans run out of the gas on the West Coast as the Derrick Henry injury cripples their offense, and Jalen Ramsey shuts down A.J. Brown.

Finally, the Titans' poor secondary gets exposed. Patrick Mahomes couldn't, but Matt Stafford bolsters his MVP candidacy with an impressive showing.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 to +1

The Bears have faced three overpowering defensive lines and gotten dragged in the trenches each time (Browns 26-6, Bucs 38-3, 49ers 33-22). The Steelers' modus operandi is to dominate the line of scrimmage with T.J. Watt. A week after Nick Bosa had two sacks and three tackles for loss, what do you think Watt's going to do?

Yes, the Steelers' offense is a problem, but the banged-up Bears might be missing impact defenders Khalil Mack, and Eddie Jackson.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 to pk 'em

The Chiefs will be included in every teaser, despite being a nightmare this season ATS (2-6, only Washington is worse).

The Packers will have Jordan Love at QB, and he couldn't have asked for a better opponent to face. Kansas City ranks 30th against the pass and 29th against the run. Davante Adams is back from Covid and should draw plenty of defenders to help Love not to look like the overrated bust everyone thinks he might be.

While the Chiefs aren't going to win a blowout — their defense won't permit it — they will win this game.

New Orleans Saints -6.5 to +.5

It doesn't matter if it's Taysom Hill, Grant Hill or Hamburger Hill starting at QB for the Saints. They got this.

Taysom Hill has been out with a concussion since the first week in October, but he might start against a Falcons team he knows well. Over three weeks last year, Hill beat the Falcons twice, with two rushing touchdowns and two passing TDs (plus 132 rushing yards).

Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Saints, their defense is the real story. With Atlanta's Calvin Ridley out, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts will be Matt Ryan's primary target, but New Orleans has yet to permit a touchdown to a tight end this season.

Did I mention Ryan got stitches in his hand after getting stepped on last week? The Saints win a low-scoring game.

JMAC's Teaser:

Los Angeles -.5
Pittsburgh +1
Kansas City pk 'em
New Orleans +.5

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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