National Football League

NFL odds Week 9: How to bet Rams-Buccaneers, pick

Updated Nov. 4, 2022 12:48 p.m. ET

The Los Angeles Rams face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a rematch of the 2021 NFC Divisional Round.

The Rams are coming off a 31-14 loss to divisional rival San Francisco 49ers, while the Buccaneers are coming off a 27-22 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Rams-Buccaneers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, expert pick and insights (odds via FOX Bet):

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Rams at Buccaneers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Buccaneers -3 (Buccaneers favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Rams cover)
Moneyline: Buccaneers -154 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.49 total); Rams +120 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Total scoring over/under: 42.5 points scored by both teams combined

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Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

This wager is less about being all-in on the Bucs and more about fading the Rams.

The Rams have the worst offense in the NFL. Yes. You read that correctly. According to Ben Baldwin’s expected points added metric, the Rams have the lowest efficiency offense in the NFL.

The Rams offensive line is stinky. They can’t run the ball, and Matthew Stafford is only comfortable throwing to Cooper Kupp. Well, unfortunately, it appears Kupp got hurt in the final minutes of their home loss to the 49ers, and his status for Sunday is unknown. LA is averaging only 15.4 points per game over its last five matchups, and now the team is hitting the road to travel to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay’s defense is hit or miss; lately, it has been mostly a miss. But the Bucs defensive line can wreck the Rams offense, and I’m not sure how the Rams game plan around that issue.

Unlike some older quarterbacks in the NFL who appear to have wilting throwing arms, that is not the issue for Tom Brady. Brady’s arm is fine. What’s not fine is the rhythm of the offense and the playcalling. Both of those are miserable. It does seem like an easy fix. Stop running the ball on obvious run downs, start throwing more play action and don’t run in the A gap in short yardage.

Nonetheless, I always trust Brady to figure it out, and against this Rams team, I expect that to happen.

PICK: Buccaneers (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The Rams have played either great defenses or terrible defenses this year.

The good news is, after this week, they play nothing but bottom-half defenses the rest of the season save for a game vs. the No. 3 Broncos and a slightly above-average Seahawks defense.

The bad news is this week, they face the top-10 Buccaneers defense.

Against the top-10 defenses they’ve played this year, here’s how they performed:

10 points vs. Buffalo
9 points against San Francisco
10 points vs. Dallas
14 points against San Francisco

They lost all four of those games.

Against defenses outside that top-10 threshold, they scored 31 vs. the Falcons in a win, 24 vs. the Panthers in a win and 20 vs. the Cardinals in a win.

The problem with the Bucs defense is two-fold.

First, they’re injured in the secondary.

Second, the Rams have a solid history of scoring points in this matchup.

These teams have played four times since Sean McVay became head coach, including twice last year.

The Rams are 3-1 SU and ATS, and the final scores:

2019 – Rams loss 55-40
2020 – Rams win 27-24
2021 – Rams win 34-24
2021 – Rams win 30-27

All four games went over the posted total.

On the other side of the ball, it’s not as if this Bucs offense has been humming, either. They've played one of the easiest stretches of defenses this year (No. 22 Saints, 25 Packers, 26 Chiefs and 32 Falcons). In those games, they scored 18 points against the Steelers, three points vs. the Panthers and 22 points vs. the Ravens, nine of which came in the final five minutes in desperation comeback mode (they had 13 points in the game’s first 55 minutes).

It remains to be seen what the Bucs offense will do with their run/pass balance.

Outside the final three minutes until halftime, the Bucs are 50/50 run/pass on first down in the first half of their games. While this still ranks 10th in the highest pass rate, these runs are literally the worst in the NFL.

They are averaging just 2.93 YPC.

Additionally, these runs are -0.18 EPA/att and 36% success.

The YPC ranks No. 32 and the EPA/att ranks 28th.

Meanwhile, passes on the same downs are averaging +0.17 EPA/att and 58% success and 7.8 YPA. These rank No. 11, 6 and 14, respectively.

It would be one thing to run on 50% of your plays if running delivered adequate efficiency or your passing game wasn’t borderline top-10 in efficiency.

But neither is the case.

Tampa must clean up their playcalling, but I still believe they are the team with more upside, both for the rest of the season and for this game.

I’d lean to the Bucs on Sunday afternoon, but I wouldn’t make a move until you’ve studied the final injury reports for both teams.

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