National Football League

NFL odds Week 9: How to bet Vikings-Commanders

Updated Nov. 4, 2022 12:59 p.m. ET

The Minnesota Vikings (6-1) will travel to America's capital city to play the Washington Commanders (4-4) for a Week 9 NFL matchup.

Minnesota is on a five-game winning streak on the back of big plays and timely defense, although they give up over 400 yards of offense per game.

Washington is also riding high, in the middle of a three-game winning streak, and will look to upset the Vikings.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Vikings-Commanders game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Vikings -3 (Vikings favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Commanders cover)
Moneyline: Vikings -175 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.71 total); Commanders +135 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 43.5 points scored by both teams combined

Lions trade T.J. Hockenson to Vikings for multiple draft picks

Albert Breer breaks down the trade.

Pick via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

Even at 6-1, the Vikings are still undervalued.

Why is Minnesota laying just over a field goal at Washington? Well, mostly because the Commanders have beaten Green Bay and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks, and the offense looks decidedly better with Taylor Heinicke starting in place of the forever-average Carson Wentz.

It’s clear to me, though, that the Vikings are a much better football team right now. I’ve got Minnesota six points better on a neutral field, and there’s a very minimal home-field advantage at FedEx Field. Expect Minnesota’s weapon-filled offense to jump ahead early and salt it away in the second half.

I’m betting against Heinicke buying a pair of purple Jordans.

PICK: Vikings (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points

Pick Via FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

When we look to bet on a game featuring Kirk Cousins, the first thing we have to ask ourselves is, is this game after 1 p.m.? The second question is, is the defense capable of getting pressure on Cousins?

This game is at 1 p.m., so Cousins has that going for him. But he will be going up against a very strong pass rush.

At home, Cousins is -0.33 EPA/att when pressured and +0.06 EPA/att when clean.

But on the road, Cousins is -0.68 EPA/att when pressured and +0.09 EPA/att when clean.

These are some of the largest splits in the NFL.

Look at Cousins on the road when pressured this year:

-0.72 EPA/att, 25% success, 6.2 YPA, 1 TD, 2 INT

It’s not great.

It ranks No. 29 out of 33 QBs this year, ahead of only the benched Matt Ryan, Year 2 QBs Zach Wilson and Mac Jones, and Kyler Murray.

The other factor at play is that Washington is a great pressure team.

They rank No. 3 in the NFL, getting pressure on 37% of opposing QB dropbacks. And they blitz at a below-average rate, which does help coverage to an extent.

Look at the defenses the Vikings have faced since Week 3 and where they rank in pressure rate:

Week 3: DET - No. 26
Week 4: NO - No. 31
Week 5: CHI - No. 28
Week 6: MIA - No. 21
Week 8: ARI - No. 22
---
Week 9: WAS - No. 3

The Vikings haven’t played anyone remotely close to Washington.

One of the staples of looking to back teams, particularly road teams, is asking yourself two questions:

Will this pass rush impact the passing offense? And can this run defense slow down the rushing attack?

We already answered the first question.

The answer to the second question is the same as the first one: yes.

Washington’s run defense ranks No. 4 in the NFL.

The Vikings have played the NFL’s No. 1 easiest schedule of opposing run defenses this season.

From Week 1-5, they did nothing but play bottom-half run defenses.

Now they face Washington, who has excelled in two key areas that may make a difference in this game.

Since Week 3, Washington ranks No. 1 in EPA/rush and No. 2 in opponent yards before contact per RB rush.

A quick scan back at the defenses the Vikings have played vs. the run and we see that in yards before contact per RB rush, they ranked: No. 31, 26, 20, 18, 17, 12 and 7. Now they’re playing the No. 2 Commanders.

Secondly, another key here is that Washington is a top-10 defense vs. runs from 11 personnel. And most of the Vikings runs are from 11 personnel.

Look at the defenses the Vikings have faced and their efficiency against 11 personnel runs: No. 29, 28, 26, 24, 22, 20, 8.

The only above-average offense? No. 8 Miami Dolphins. How did that game go?

In the first 56 minutes of the game, Cook had nine rushes for 17 yards!

That’s right, 1.9 YPC, -0.38 EPA/att and 11% success.

The Vikings led by less than one TD with four minutes left, 16-10, and were taking on the Dolphins third-string QB, Skylar Thompson. And finally, Cook broke free for a 53-yard run with 3:25 left in the game to skew all of his statistics.

But he was terrible in the game vs. the only team he’s played all season which was respectable against 11 personnel runs and good at holding RBs to few yards before contact per attempt.

I think giving Washington 3.5 points at home is too many.

PICK: Commanders (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)

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