NFL odds Week 9: Lamar Jackson shines in prime time, best betting trends
Week 9 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to keep giving you the edges needed to make a profit!
Last week provided tons of surprises that sharps and trend bettors across the country didn’t see coming. For starters, underdogs continued to dominate as they went 8-6-1 against the spread (ATS) (57.1%), with six of them winning straight up (SU). Additionally, Kliff Kingsbury recorded his first loss as a road underdog in the last two seasons, falling to 8-1 ATS and SU in that span. Arguably the biggest surprise of them all came on Monday night, with the Cleveland Browns dominating the Cincinnati Bengals as three-point underdogs in a 32-13 victory.
As always, we did a deep dive into historical regular season data to identify the best trends for the upcoming week. We also looked at team- and player-specific trends, which should help inform you on who to bet on this week.
Let's jump in and have some fun!
Lamar Jackson shines in prime time
Lamar Jackson has been electric this year, throwing for over 1,600 yards and rushing for over 500 as well. The former MVP has accounted for 15 passing touchdowns and rushed for two as well, with just six interceptions thus far this season.
With him and the Baltimore Ravens playing the New Orleans Saints on Monday night this week, we decided to look at how he performs in prime time. The results were telling, as Jackson is 9-6 ATS (60%) and a whopping 11-4 SU (73.3%) in games played at 8 p.m. ET or later for his career.
Furthermore, the Ravens are 5-2 ATS (71.4%) and SU against the Saints since 1996 and have also been dominant under John Harbaugh’s watch. Under his tenure, Baltimore is 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and 10-3 SU (76.9%) against NFC South opponents, as well as 11-7 ATS (61.1%) and SU in Monday night games. On the other side of the coin, the Saints are just 2-9 ATS (18.2%) in Monday games since 2015.
Underdogs continue to dominate
As mentioned earlier, underdogs have consistently covered through the season's first eight weeks. We decided to look back at the last 23 years of data to see where the 2022 season ranks in terms of underdogs covering through the first eight weeks. The 67-51-3 ATS (56.8%) record underdogs have totaled thus far is the fifth-best since the 2000 season, with the 67 covers being the second-most in that span as well.
Some notable underdogs in Week 9 include the Los Angeles Rams (+2.5), Seattle Seahawks (+2), Atlanta Falcons (+3) and Carolina Panthers (+7.5). All odds via FOX Bet.
Highest Cover Rates by Underdogs Through First Eight Weeks
Since 2000
2012: 71-46-1 (60.7%)
2002: 65-47-2 (58%)
2010: 65-49-3 (57%)
2020: 66-50-1 (56.9%)
2022: 67-51-3 (56.8%)
Eagles should cover as double-digit favorites against the Texans
Taking the favorite to cover in games with double-digit spreads is always tough, but it shouldn’t be when betting on the Philadelphia Eagles! The lone undefeated team in the league takes on the Houston Texans in a Thursday night matchup as 13.5-point road favorites at FOX Bet.
Almost all the data points toward the Birds covering, as Philadelphia is 5-0 SU against the Texans since 2002. Philly is also 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and 11-2 SU (84.6%) against AFC South opponents since 2010, with the Over hitting in 10 of those games (76.9%). In Thursday games specifically, the Eagles are 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and SU since 2010, with the Over hitting in eight of those games (61.5%). And finally, they’re 8-5-1 ATS (61.5%) and 11-3 SU (78.6%) as double-digit favorites over the last 13 seasons.
Sean McDermott dominates as double-digit favorite
This is the third time we’ve mentioned this trend this year, because it’s the third time the Buffalo Bills have been double-digit favorites! The Super Bowl favorites are currently 12.5-point road favorites against the New York Jets this Sunday.
Since 2015, the Bills are 8-6 ATS (57.1%) and 9-5 SU (64.3%) against the Jets. Under Sean McDermott, Buffalo is also 7-3-2 ATS (70%) and 11-1 SU (91.7%) as a double-digit favorite, with the Under hitting in eight of those games (57.1%). Furthermore, McDermott’s squad is 12-7 ATS (63.2%) and 14-5 SU (73.7%) as a road favorite under his tenure.
It also doesn’t help that the Jets are 5-11 ATS (31.3%) and 2-14 SU (12.5%) as double-digit underdogs since 2018. Additionally, the Jets are 12-16-1 ATS (42.9%) and 8-21 SU (27.6%) as home underdogs in that same span.
Dolphins should cover against the Bears
The Miami Dolphins made headlines after trading a first-round pick for Bradley Chubb, and we like them to cover against the Chicago Bears. FOX Bet currently has them as five-point favorites at Soldier Field.
Miami has historically been successful against Chicago, going 9-4 ATS (69.2%) and SU against them since 1971. In a more recent time span, the Dolphins are even better, going 4-1 ATS (80%) and SU against the Bears since 2002.
When three-to-five-point favorites, the Fins are also 8-4 ATS (66.7%) and SU since 2018, with the Under hitting in eight of those games (66.7%). The Bears have also struggled as a home underdog, going 6-11 ATS (35.3%) and 5-12 SU (29.4%) since 2018. They’ve also gone 4-8 ATS (33.3%) and SU as three- to five-point underdogs in that same span. The Under also hit in 58.3% of those games.
History says Patriots to cover against Colts
The New England Patriots are currently 5.5-point favorites at home against the Indianapolis Colts at FOX Bet. Bill Belichick’s bunch is fresh off a victory over the Jets and are looking to earn their fourth win in five games.
Check out the following trends under Belichick’s tenure that point to betting on the Patriots this Sunday:
- Patriots are 10-7-1 ATS (58.8%) and 12-6 SU (66.7%) against the Colts under Bill Belichick, with the Over hitting in 13 of those games (72.2%)
- New England is 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) and 33-12 SU (73.3%) against AFC South opponents under Bill Belichick, with the Over hitting in 31 of those games (68.9%)
- Patriots are 88-66-4 ATS (57.1%) and 127-31 SU (80.4%) as a home favorite under Bill Belichick
- New England is 64-29-4 ATS (68.8%) and 81-16 SU (83.5%) as a four- to seven-point favorite under Bill Belichick
- Patriots are 153-118-6 ATS (56.5%) and 214-63 SU (77.3%) as a favorite under Bill Belichick
So are you ready to place some NFL Week 9 bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers!
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