National Football League

NFL odds Week 9: Ride with the Kansas City Chiefs, more best bets

Updated Nov. 9, 2022 4:31 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Now that we are officially at the halfway point of the NFL season, it’s about time to separate the pretenders from the contenders.

With that in mind, I have a couple of strong contenders to wager on this week in the Bills and Chiefs. I also have a few, preten — well, I have my J-E-T-S back on the betting slate after a brief hiatus.

So, without further ado, let's dive into my best bets for Week 9 (with odds via FOX Bet).

Chargers at Falcons (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Even with the Chargers potentially limited at receiver (Keenan Allen’s hamstring; Mike Williams’ ankle), they should move the ball early and often against a very bad Falcons defense.

Even if Atlanta gets CB A.J. Terrell back, they still generate no pressure (last in the league, 11.5 percent), so Justin Herbert should finally have time in the pocket to find open receivers. The Falcons let Carolina's fourth-string quarterback, P.J. Walker, throw for 317 yards, for goodness' sake.

LAC’s secondary lost JC Jackson - who had been struggling - so they'll have problems defending Kyle Pitts, who seems out of the doghouse after catching five passes on a season-high nine targets for 80 yards and a TD against the Panthers.

I’m nervous about backing the Chargers here if they can’t stop the Falcons run game, which may get Cordarrelle Patterson back from IR. This is why I'll go with the Over.

PICK: Over 48.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

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Bills at Jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Bills were -10.5 on the look-ahead line, and this quickly swelled to -13 after Zach Wilson again struggled against pressure in a loss to the Patriots.

In five games, Wilson is 9-for-47 (19 percent!) under pressure, with one touchdown and five interceptions. That’s the second worst in the NFL to the benched Matt Ryan.

The Bills have been able to get home with four and have sent the second-fewest blitzes in the NFL. If you can find Von Miller props, the only thing that might stop him could be a blowout.

Of course, this is a massive number to lay on the road in a divisional matchup. The Bills also may be down safety Jordan Poyer, who suffered an elbow injury against the Packers.

Buffalo was -13.5 at the Jets last year and beat Mike White 45-17. They also covered -16 at home last year in a 27-10 win, a game in which they sacked Zach Wilson eight times (he only had seven completions) and held him to 87 yards passing.

You won’t make money in the long haul betting double-digit road favorites, but it’s tough to advise you to put your hard-earned money on Zach Wilson here. Because of the big spread, I'll take the Under because I don't see the Jets scoring many points.

PICK: Under 47 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

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Raiders at Jaguars (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

This feels like an elimination game in the AFC, as the loser would have no shot of making the playoffs.

The Jaguars are a putrid 2-6 ATS and have lost five straight, but bizarrely have a +14 points differential, which is almost all thanks to the romp of the Chargers.

The Raiders have lost four games by less than one score, but their 24-0 shutout at the hands of the limping Saints was one of the most perplexing results of the season. Even if you chalk it up to an illness that swept through the team and star TE Darren Waller missing his third straight game, this offense has too much talent to get shut out.

The Raiders offense hasn’t traveled well as they’re 0-4 on the road. Jacksonville should be 3-0 at home but made mistakes in the red zone and ended up losing to the Texans and Giants, despite outplaying them.

This is a coin-flip game where the first to 28 points wins. Either way, we should see a ton of fireworks in this one.

PICK: Over 47.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Titans at Chiefs (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Andy Reid is excellent off a bye week! Regular season or playoffs, he’s 20-3 with extra time to prepare. That’s decent, right? When playing off a bye at home? He’s 12-1.

All that being said, the Titans have been a problem for Reid. Their run-heavy style has given him fits - he’s just 2-5 against Tennessee. Last year Reid’s Chiefs were buried 27-3 by the Titans on the road in October … then didn’t lose again until a Week 17 loss to the Bengals.

In the Tennessee loss, Mahomes fumbled, threw an interception and was sacked four times. The KC secondary was lit up by AJ Brown (8-133-1).

The Titans have won five straight, beating the following quarterbacks: Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan (again) and Davis Mills. The Commanders should have beaten them, but Wentz couldn’t get them into the end zone from the 2-yard line despite having three plays in the final minute.

The Chiefs scored 41 on Tampa on the road and 44 on the 49ers on the road.

Prime-time underdogs are 14-11 against the spread this season, but I’m riding with the Chiefs here.

PICK: Kansas City (-12.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 12.5 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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