National Football League

NFL playoff picks: Forecast for NFC divisional round

Updated Jan. 18, 2022 2:05 p.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The NFC brought us the only upset of wild-card weekend, as the 49ers earned themselves a trip to Green Bay. 

Elsewhere, the Rams handled business against the Cardinals, and Tampa Bay smoked the Eagles. 

Here are my thoughts on the NFC divisional matchups.

No. 6 San Francisco 49ers at No. 1 Green Bay Packers
When: 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX
Line: Packers by 6, over/under 47.5

The Packers will win if … being healthy (finally) pays off.

The Packers welcomed back left tackle David Bakhtiari in their Week 18 loss to the Lions. He had missed the entire season while rehabbing his knee injury from last postseason before finally getting back on the field for nearly a half two weeks ago. He looked healthy, strong and in shape in his short appearance. Having Bakhtiari against Nick Bosa, assuming he’s able to clear concussion protocols, will be huge for keeping Aaron Rodgers comfortable in the pocket. 

The Packers also welcome back to the lineup second-team All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander after just four starts this season. The Packers' pass defense started hot with Alexander in the lineup, and without a doubt the defense will improve with him back. The Packers will need all hands on deck against San Francisco's Deebo Samuel, who seems nearly unstoppable as a multipurpose offensive weapon. 

Finally, while not confirmed, the Packers hope All-Pro pass-rusher Za’Darius Smith can return after playing just a single game in the regular season. He isn't off injured reserve yet, but he’s back at practice, which points to his getting on the field this weekend. There’s no other team in the NFL getting this healthy right now. 

The Niners will win if … their quarterback can avoid losing the game for them.

That will be difficult to achieve against a team such as the Packers, but it worked for San Francisco this past weekend. We saw in Super Bowl LIV and again on Sunday that Jimmy Garoppolo makes critical mistakes, both mental and physical, in the biggest moments. 

Against the Cowboys, he threw a mind-numbing interception that had an 84% chance of completion. He missed a wide-open receiver on the drive before, and on the final drive, he threw a worm-finder to George Kittle that would have given the Niners a first down. 

The 49ers succeed on offense with well-defined passing reads for Garoppolo. And of course, when they run the ball well, it’s difficult to beat them. But they need to avoid having Jimmy G make soul-crushing mistakes, which is a miserable spot to be in on the road against the top seed. 

The San Francisco defense can help in this cause, but they will need Bosa and Fred Warner (ankle) to play Saturday. Keeping Rodgers contained is always difficult, but holding the Packers in the low 20s could allow the Niners' offense to win the game with just 23 or 24 points. 

The pick: The Packers are too good to lose this game.

No. 4 Los Angeles Rams at No. 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
When: 3 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
Line: Bucs by 3, over/under 48.5

The Bucs will win if … Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. does Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. things.

Brady lost his final home playoff game in a Patriots uniform with a depleted roster that was not worthy of winning in the postseason. Before that, the Patriots had won nine straight home playoff games. 

Tom Brady’s Bucs have won and covered in seven of their previous eight home games, and I expect them to win again Sunday. 

We know that an untold number of factors determine the outcome of an NFL game, but one that is under-discussed and often confused with momentum is confidence. Belief — and not just "we are the underdogs, and no one believes in us" belief — is a powerful emotion and can be the guiding force in wins and losses. The quarterback is the most important position in all of sports, and when your quarterback is Tom Brady, you believe deep in your core that every playoff game is yours to win. The entire roster plays better because Brady can always "save" the team. 

Also, with their winning experience last season, attributed in part to Brady, the Bucs are a seasoned team this time of the year. They played at a different speed than the Eagles did on Sunday.

Cam Jordan: ‘Rams will need to pressure Tom Brady if they want a win’ I FIRST THINGS FIRST

New Orleans Saints DE Cam Jordan joins the "First Things First" crew to talk about the Rams' matchup against the Buccaneers. His advice to the Rams is to keep pressure on the Bucs' quarterback.

The Rams will win if … Aaron Donald and Von Miller take over. 

You must hit Brady to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. There’s no other duo left in the playoffs that features two future Hall of Fame pass-rushers, and the Rams will need Donald and Miller to play their best game against this Bucs offense. The Tampa Bay offensive line is fabulous and underrated as usual because the focus of the offense is on Brady. 

Shannon Sharpe on Rams-Bucs: 'I like this matchup and what the Rams can do defensively' I UNDISPUTED

The Rams cruised past Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to advance to the divisional round. Shannon Sharpe explains why he likes the Rams against Tom Brady and the Bucs.

However, right tackle Tristan Wirfs and center Ryan Jensen both suffered apparent ankle injuries Sunday. Jensen was able to return but might be moving slowly this weekend. 

If the Rams' defense can slow down the Bucs' offense, then the Rams' offense can stick to its successful game script: Run the ball, play-action pass and generally avoid Matt Stafford needing to "win" the game.

The pick: I’m taking the Bucs. Duh.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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