National Football League

NFL playoff picks: Forecast for wild-card weekend

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 1:39 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Inject the final week of the NFL season straight into my sports-loving veins!

No matter how simple the playoff scenarios look on paper, things never play out that way on the field. And that’s why we love the NFL.

Now that the postseason matchups are set, what will happen in the wild-card round? Here are my thoughts (with betting lines via FOX Bet).

NFC MATCHUPS

No. 7 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
Line: Bucs by 9, over/under 49

The Eagles should be commended for their effort to get into the dance this season. They have a first-year coach whose hiring was mocked and a young quarterback who was handed the reins for the first time. Now they draw the most accomplished QB in NFL history and the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Eagles will win if … their offensive line can control this game. Philadelphia ran for more yards than anyone because its offensive line is outstanding.

The Eagles want to use the run game and the RPO to give Jalen Hurts choices in their offense. The line keeps Hurts upright in the passing game, which is important because he takes almost three seconds to throw the ball on average, longest in the NFL among starting quarterbacks.

We know the Bucs' defense can stop the run and rush the passer. However, their secondary is beat up and not playing as well as it did in their Super Bowl run last year. If the Eagles can hold up in protection, Hurts can attack down the field, and that's how they win this game.

"He's never had a quarterback like me"

Jalen Hurts discusses the expectations that he has for himself and the Eagles.

The Bucs will win if … they play like they should. The Bucs have been outstanding at home this season, winning every game but one. They are guided by Tom Brady, who is looking for his eighth Super Bowl ring. They have multiple All-Pro offensive lineman. Their main tight end and Brady's favorite target is possibly the best tight end ever. They have Mike Evans at receiver. Their defensive line and linebacker corps is one of the best in the league.

The Bucs have been here before and should have the utmost confidence in their ability to win. It’s that simple for them: They are the better team.

The pick: I’m picking the Bucs to easily handle business against the Eagles, who will start fast but won’t be able to stay with Brady & Co.

No. 6 San Francisco 49ers at No. 3 Dallas Cowboys
When: 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Line: Cowboys by 3, over/under 49.5

What a Sunday for the Niners. They got down 17-0 in Los Angeles before rallying in dramatic fashion to win in overtime, 27-24. They needed a long drive in the final two minutes with no timeouts just to tie the game, and Jimmy G came through.

Deebo Samuel continues to terrorize defenses, and the Niners were able to force multiple second-half turnovers. Next they face the Cowboys, who dominated the Eagles' preseason roster Saturday.

"This is a special one"

Jimmy Garoppolo talks with Tom Rinaldi after the 49ers erased a 17-point deficit to secure a playoff berth.

The 49ers will win if … they keep the game out of Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands. Sunday provided the perfect example of how the 49ers can win with him at QB. They were down 17-3 at halftime and appeared lifeless, but a switch was flipped in the halftime break.

In the second half, the Niners controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and imposed their will. They hit Matt Stafford on what felt like every drop-back pass. Until the two-minute drive, Garoppolo wasn't needed much, and that is exactly how this wild-card game needs to go.

The Cowboys have a stout offensive line and impressive pass rush. Those elements must be neutralized so Garoppolo doesn’t need to make big throws throughout the game.

The Cowboys will win if … they follow one of several paths to victory. They could harass the Niners' quarterback all game and force multiple turnovers to limit the scoring opportunities for San Francisco. They could get Dak Prescott distributing the ball all over the field in a timely manner, which at times makes it nearly impossible to stop the Cowboys' offense.

Three reasons the Cowboys will play in the Super Bowl

Bucky Brooks offers three reasons why he thinks the Dallas Cowboys are Super Bowl-bound.

But for me, the key is tackling Samuel when he has the ball. He’s the Niners' engine right now. He leads the team in rushing touchdowns, and he might have thrown the best pass for the Niners on Sunday as well. The Cowboys need to focus their energy on defense on stopping him. If they do that, the Niners have no offense.

The pick: Give me the Cowboys in a close game in Dallas. I don’t buy that the 49ers are the team no one wants to see right now. They barely made the playoffs, and the Cowboys are better. Give me the home team.

No. 5 Arizona Cardinals at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams
When: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
Line: Rams by 4, over/under 50.5

This is the "limping into the playoffs" matchup between two NFC West teams. The Rams were up 17-0 on the 49ers, only to lose in overtime. The Cardinals finished 3-7 in their last eight after starting 7-0.

With the Rams' loss, the Cards needed only to beat the Seahawks at home to win the NFC West and host a playoff game. Didn't happen.

The Cardinals/Rams will win if … they can get out of their own way enough to win. (I’m cheating a bit here and giving each team the same key to victory.)

The Rams have "Matt Goff" at QB. Matthew Stafford has not seen an arm punt he can turn down. He continues to lob long passes down the field into double- and triple-coverage. Yes, he makes good throws as well, but the bad ones overshadow the good.

The Rams' running game is up and down because their offensive line is up and down. Their defense has the pieces to be excellent but then has an entire half in which they allow the Niners to move the ball with ease.

The Rams are 2-5 against playoff teams this season, including two losses to the 49ers and a spilt with the Cardinals. They have their moments when they look unbeatable, but I don't trust them.

As for the Cardinals, it’s the same story each season under Kliff Kingsbury. They start fast and finish slow. They’ve lost four of their past five and won only three games after their 7-0 start. Their offense has slowed down, per usual, as teams made adjustments, and Kingsbury seemingly has no answer for it.

Kyler Murray has not played as well since his ankle injury more than a month ago. The offense put up only 305 yards against the Seahawks in a game that could have won them the division. Seattle was able to rush for more than 200 yards.

Hopefully, J.J. Watt can return to help the rushing defense, which turned into one of the worst units after he got injured. Now, the Cardinals have played much better on the road this season, winning eight of nine games, so that’s a positive heading into this weekend. But I don’t know how you trust this team.

The pick: I’d rather pick no team to win this game, but the answer is the Rams. They are better coached and have more game-wreckers. Cooper Kupp can’t be stopped. Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey can take over games. Give me the Rams by a touchdown.

AFC MATCHUPS

No. 5 Las Vegas Raiders at No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals
When: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC
Line: Bengals by 6.5, over/under 48.5

The Raiders won four in a row to get into the playoffs, including wins at Indianapolis and the wild final game of the regular season against the Chargers. They have earned this opportunity against the Bengals.

The Raiders will win if … luck is on their side. It feels unwarranted to not believe in this team after their final month of the season, but it still seems like some luck would help them. They need to force some passes into their defenders' waiting arms, and they need some busted pass coverage.

In the end, though, Derek Carr has to play lights-out like he has been doing. You could make a case he’s one of the top seven quarterbacks in the NFL. Las Vegas' offense struggled to score for nearly two months but has come alive the past two weekends. Hunter Renfrow has been incredible, and adding Darren Waller back into the lineup will be helpful. Carr must be that dude for the Raiders to win this game, especially in the red zone, where they’ve really struggled.

But the key this weekend won’t be Carr. It will be the Raiders' pass rush and coverage. The Bengals have struggled this season when facing zone coverage, and the Raiders can absolutely not allow Ja'Marr Chase to have one-on-one coverage.

The Bengals' offensive line is a wreck, and the Raiders' pass rush must take advantage. We saw the difference Maxx Crosby made in their thrilling win against the Chargers, and he must be big in this game. The pass rush can win the Raiders a playoff game.

The Bengals will win if … they keep Joe Burrow upright. It’s boring, and I wish I could provide some insightful nugget, but it’s that simple. Burrow is an electric playmaker when given the time — and even when given no time, with his ability to escape pressure. But he has taken so many hits this season, and we saw him limp off the field at the end of Cincy's win over the Chiefs.

The Bengals will need to rely on their run game at times, which they did in the first Raiders matchup. Throw the ball quickly to avoid the rush. Also, coach Zac Taylor must have his team understand that this isn’t the same Las Vegas team they smashed two months ago. Do not start slowly.

The pick: This could be close, but I'm taking the Bengals to end their playoff drought.

No. 6 New England Patriots at No. 3 Buffalo Bills
When: 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS
Line: Bills by 4.5, over/under 43.5

New England enters the playoffs after another loss in Miami and heads to Buffalo to face its AFC East foe. Should be a fascinating matchup.

The Patriots will win if … they make life tough on Josh Allen and force him into errors to keep the game close. The Pats cannot win a shootout. While Allen attempts and completes throws almost no one else can manage at that position, he still has some "YOLO" in him.

In the Bills' recent win over the Patriots, Allen did not have any issues with forcing ill-advised passes. In fact, Allen made some incredible throws to help the Bills win that game. The Patriots need to rush the passer well and give Allen multiple looks in the back end. It seems simple, but that’s the path because New England absolutely can’t get behind in this game.

The Patriots' offense is not built for high-scoring games. They want to play under control and avoid situations in which the offense becomes too dependent on its rookie QB.

The Bills will win if … their defense has its way. The Buffalo defense is nasty and has thrived at times this season. Even with losing Tre'Davious White at cornerback, the Bills ended up second in the NFL in passing defense efficiency. If their defense can disrupt the Patriots' passing attack and take away options from Mac Jones, the Bills can gain the upper hand.

Just like the other good teams in the playoffs, the path for the Bills is multiple, but their defense offers their best ticket to victory. The Bills will win if they can stop the run. The Patriots are going to attempt the same game plan each week. Run the football and keep third down manageable.

Buffalo has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL and keeping the Patriots in third-and-long would be perfect for them to attack the rookie QB. Stopping the run on early downs makes that happen. It will also allow them more opportunities to score on offense getting the ball back after short New England drives.

The pick: The team with the better QB wins. That's Buffalo.

No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs
When: 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
Line: Chiefs by 13, over/under 46.5

I’m in awe of Mike Tomlin’s ability to get the most out of his Steelers team each season. The Steelers are still a tough defensive squad, but they have a QB whose arm delivers passes at a tortoise's pace. It pains me to watch Ben Roethlisberger throw. But, hey, the Steelers are into the playoffs.

The Steelers will win if … they force Patrick Mahomes into mistakes and get the Chiefs' turnover offense to return. These teams played a little less than a month ago, and the Chiefs won 36-10; it felt like 65-10. The Chiefs had no turnovers, and the Steelers had three.

In fact, the Chiefs won every game this season in which they won the turnover battle. On Sunday, the Steelers need TJ Watt to have a big game against the Chiefs' right tackle. The Steelers also need their secondary to confuse Mahomes and/or make him be patient all game, which leads to him pressing at times. That is Pittsburgh's only path to victory.

The Chiefs will win if … they play to their abilities. Far too often this season, they had self-inflicted plays. A fumble at the end of the Ravens game. A poor defensive call against the Bengals. Bad penalties. Untimely turnovers.

Yet the AFC champs won 12 games. If they get out of their own way, the Chiefs can hoist another Lombardi. In this game, they need to strive to eliminate those errors because that’s how they win the Super Bowl. They can make mistakes and still beat the Steelers, but that should not be good enough for them.

The pick: The Chiefs will win this game by two touchdowns.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.