National Football League

NFL Playoffs Briefing: Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen a QB matchup for the ages

Published Jan. 24, 2025 11:18 a.m. ET

Play-by-Play Announcer, Reporter and Studio Host

Editor's Note: Throughout the NFL playoffs, Chris Myers and his research team analyze upcoming matchups, while providing news, notes, and nuggets for inside access to the information an NFL broadcaster uses to prepare for calling a game.

As we head into Championship Weekend, it should be noted that the surviving four teams have played a total of seven games without committing a single turnover. Their opponents have had 15 turnovers in that span:

Washington: 6 turnovers forced (TB 1, DET 5)
Philadelphia: 6 turnovers forced (GB 4, LAR 2)
Buffalo: 3 turnovers forced (DEN 0, BAL 3)
Kansas City: 0 turnovers forced (HOU)

Will both championship games be another turnover-free for these four?

6. Washington Commanders at 2. Philadelphia Eagles

We thought that the Eagles, thanks to the recent change in the playoff formula to include a seventh team in each conference, might have a chance to be the first team to win three home games in one postseason, but it actually has happened twice before, including once by Washington.

Both of those instances came in 1982, when after a strike reduced the regular season to nine games, the playoffs were expanded to 16 teams. Washington was the top seed in the NFC and Miami was No. 2 in the AFC. Each won three home games before Washington won the first of three Super Bowls under Joe Gibbs.

The Commanders are seeking to become the fifth team to make the Super Bowl after a four-win season, most recently the 2021 Bengals, who went 4-11-1 in Joe Burrow's rookie 2020 season. All four of those teams played fewer than the current 17 games, so the 2024 Commanders would be the first team to lose 13 or more games in the season prior to a Super Bowl appearance.

Jayden Daniels has passed for 567 yards in the two wins, five yards from the rookie record for a postseason set by Russell Wilson in 572 yards. Two years ago, Brock Purdy seemed in line to break it but he was hurt early in the NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia and finished at 569.

Eagles running back Barkley now has 2,329 rushing yards in the extended season (regular season and postseason) and needs 148 on Sunday to pass the record of Terrell Davis (2,476 in 1998) for the most rushing yards in competitive games by one NFL back in one season.

Before this season, no NFL player had ever passed for 4,000+ yards and rushed for 1,000+ in an extended season. Now, if Jayden Daniels rushes for 22 yards on Sunday (he is at 4,135 passing, 978 rushing), he will join Lamar Jackson, whose 2024 season is over with 4,601 rushing and 1,035 passing.

CHRIS MYERS ANALYSIS: "I see where Jason Kelce says the Eagles have better players at every position. Without getting into a discussion on the other positions, and with no disrespect to Jalen Hurts, I disagree at quarterback. He might be designated as a ‘rookie' but Washington's Jayden Daniels has been superb, both in the regular season and postseason and compares with even Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes for his play this year. On the other hand, Hurts has been good, not great, and for this week's game he is dealing with a knee injury. I feel the Commanders have an advantage on Sunday at the game's most important position.

"That said, the Eagles are an outstanding team that plays the game in the most ‘old-fashioned' sense with a great back running behind a tremendous line. They have their ardent fan base cheering them on Sunday and could be dominant on both lines.

"The Commanders have exceeded all expectations and are playing with house money. They certainly should not fear the Eagles after splitting with them in two games, winning the last. And over the past five seasons, even when Washington was not ascendant, Philadelphia's advantage is only 6-4 with only one win by more than 10 points.

"They have already defeated the No. 1 and No. 3 seeds, and I would expect the Commanders will be very competitive. And in the tight moments at the end of the game, Daniels has shown he makes the winning plays."

2. Buffalo Bills at 1. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs did not win any of the first 49 AFC Championship Games (between 1970 and 2018). Then they have won four of the last five with wins over four different teams, including the Bills in the 2020 AFC Championship Game.

The Bills did not appear in any of the first 18 AFC title games before a run of five appearances in six years that started in 1988. After losing that game to the Bengals, they won four straight from 1990 to 1993, the last a 20-13 triumph over the Chiefs, who had Joe Montana and Dave Krieg as quarterbacks.

Kansas City did not return until this current run of now seven straight appearances began in 2018. They avenged the 1993 loss in 2020 with a 38-24 win over the Bills.

As has been discussed before, these Chiefs excel in close games, with only three of their 16 total wins coming by more than 10 points. Part of that is due to the decline in the Chiefs' offense.

Between 2018 and 2022, Kansas City scored more than 30 points in 48 games, including nine times in the postseason. No other team topped 30 more than 32 times (Dallas). Last year, the Chiefs only topped 30 on three occasions, and in 2024 they are one of only three teams that has not had such a game.

In five regular-season games against the Chiefs, Bills quarterback Josh Allen has produced 25.8 PPG and is 4-1, but despite upping that to 28 PPG in three postseason meetings, he is 0-3 against Kansas City. It's partly because Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has been exponentially better in the postseason against Buffalo, with 306 pass yards per game, 8 TDs and 0 INTs.

He is not 30 yet, but Mahomes has 16 postseason wins, tied for second among starting quarterbacks with a former Chief, Joe Montana. Although best known for his four Super Bowl wins with the 49ers, Montana's final two postseason triumphs came with Kansas City in 1993. Tom Brady's total of 35 seems insurmountable at the moment, but Mahomes is off to a great start.

Mahomes has multiple postseason wins in his last five seasons and can make it six in a row Sunday. Brady had a run of eight consecutive seasons with multiple playoff wins (2011-18).

It's not Mahomes or Brady, but Josh Allen has won at least one game in each of the last five postseasons.

CHRIS MYERS' ANALYSIS: "In games the Chiefs were trying to win, they are 16-1. And the one team that beat them was the Bills. That game was in Buffalo. Now they meet in Kansas City, where they have won 10 playoff games since 2019.

"This is a quarterback matchup for the ages, two Hall of Famers in their late 20s at the top of their games. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen entered the NFL with great skills including cannon arms and exceptional mobility. The Chiefs in 2017 and the Bills in 2018 both got it right with the critical first-round quarterback decision, where so many other teams have failed. Now, they have reaped the benefits with a long line of division titles.

"It seems likely that both quarterbacks will be outstanding. The question then is who else might make the decisive plays – either for good or bad as we saw last week with usually reliable tight end Mark Andrews of the Ravens. Is there a hero or goat waiting in the wings?

"One thing Mahomes has going for him is a Hall of Fame coach in Andy Reid teamed with a supremely experienced defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo. Coach Sean McDermott of the Bills and his offensive coordinator Joe Brady will be going against two of the very best, as they try to give Allen and company the preparation they need."

"Until now, it has been the Chiefs with the stellar postseason resumé while Buffalo, despite some success, has fallen short of the Super Bowl. Is this the year Buffalo returns to the Big Game for the first time in 32 years?

"I can't wait to find out what happens."

Chris Myers is an Emmy Award-winning play-by-play announcer, reporter and studio host for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @The_ChrisMyers.