There are 12 teams that still have a shot at winning Super Bowl LI. What does the NFL hierarchy look like heading into the playoffs?
We are down to one dozen teams when it comes to who will walk away with the league’s 97th championship. Welcome to the 2016 NFL playoffs.
So exactly who will be still left standing in Houston at Super Bowl LI when the postseason dust clears? Here we rank the playoff participants from 12 to 1. We have included the teams’ final win-loss records and their current seeding in their respective conferences. But the main factor here is how well each club is playing at the moment.
12. Houston Texans
9-7 (AFC South champions)
No. 4 Seed in AFC
You have to give Houston Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien plenty of credit. He’s been at the helm of the team for three years and the club has finished 9-7 each year. The clubs has utilized eight different starting quarterbacks and the one-time New England Patriots assistant and Penn State sideline leader owns a 27-21 regular-season record. And the Texans are AFC South champions for the second straight year.
When it comes to total yards per game allowed this season, no team has done it better than Romeo Crennel’s unit. That’s quite the accomplishment considering this is a Houston team minus the services of three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt.
On offense, there’s workhorse running back Lamar Miller (who expects to be ready for the Oakland Raiders) and a suddenly-rejuvenated DeAndre Hopkins. But who exactly will be pulling the trigger this weekend. In Sunday’s loss to the Tennessee Titans, Brock Osweiler came off the bench in place of Tom Savage, out with a concussion. The much-maligned former Denver Broncos quarterback played one of his better games of the season.
This is a division champion that allowed 49 points than it scored this season. At the moment, it’s hard to get excited about the chances of the Texans playing in a Super Bowl in front of the home crowd.
Dec 26, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Anquan Boldin (80) runs as Dallas Cowboys strong safety J.J. Wilcox (27) defends during the first half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
11. Detroit Lions
9-7 (Wild Card)
No. 6 Seed in NFC
Three weeks ago and with a 9-4 mark, the Detroit Lions were in first place in the NFC North all by their lonesome.
But things can change rapidly in this league, especially when you have to face the New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers down the stretch. Jim Caldwell’s team has had a tremendous season, but the stretch run proved to be a bit too much.
On Sunday night against red-hot Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy’s offense, the Lions allowed 448 total yards in a 31-24 loss. The team that has had fourth-quarter magic all season watched Green Bay come up with a pair of touchdowns in the final 15 minutes. Caldwell’s club owned a 14-10 lead at intermission but couldn’t hold off the Pack attack.
The biggest issue facing these Lions as they prepare to meet the playoff-seasoned Seattle Seahawks is the lack of a pass rush and the issues in their secondary. Rodgers picked the team apart on Sunday night, hitting on 27 of his 39 throws for 300 yards and four scores. Detroit totaled only one sack and did not come up with a takeaway.
Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin’s unit allowed 41 offensive touchdowns in 16 games this season. And 33 of those came through the air. During their season-ending three-game losing streak, Detroit defenders have allowed 10 scores through the air. Even more disturbing is the fact that the Lions have not forced a turnover in four straight games.
Despite a very solid season by quarterback Matthew Stafford, it’s a bad time for the Lions’ defense to be playing its worst football of the season. Hence the disappointing spot on this list.
Dec 24, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree (15) reaches for the end zone as Indianapolis Colts cornerback Vontae Davis (21) defends in the first quarter during a NFL football game at Oakland-Alameda Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
10. Oakland Raiders
12-4 (Wild Card)
No. 5 Seed in AFC
So what can we expect on Saturday afternoon at Houston when the Silver and Black hits the postseason stage for the first time since 2002?
More importantly, who can we expect to be behind center when the Oakland Raiders take on the Texans in the first of the four wild-card tilts this coming weekend?
With starter Derek Carr sidelined, backup Matt McGloin got the start in Week 17 against the Broncos but suffered a shoulder injury. Rookie Connor Cook came in with the team trailing 17-0 but there wasn’t a lot he could do. Now he may be forced to do plenty.
“We’ll see how healthy McGloin is and make the decision from there,” said head coach Jack Del Rio to Jimmy Durkin of the Mercury News after the team’s 24-6 loss at Denver. “Obviously he has more experience in our system, but I thought Connor did a nice job with the opportunities that he had.”
But let’s remember what the Raiders have been all season. Carr was putting up NFL MVP-type numbers while his defensive counterparts were not up to snuff throughout the year. Defensive end Khalil Mack and newcomers Bruce Irvin and Reggie Nelson did their best but we rarely saw flashes of what Del Rio’s team needed to make a legitimate championship run. Now Carr is not only out but McGloin may be unavailable on Saturday at Houston.
You want to hit the postseason guns blazing. But that’s not the case here when it comes to a team that has plenty of talent but a lot of uncertainty at the game’s most vital position.
Jan 1, 2017; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman (25) during warmups before the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levis Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
9. Seattle Seahawks
10-5-1 (NFC West champions)
No. 3 Seed in NFC
For the fifth consecutive year, head coach Pete Carroll will lead the Seattle Seahawks into the postseason with quarterback Russell Wilson at the controls.
But arguably the first time over this period, this is a club heading into the playoffs with a ton of uncertainty. It’s been an uneven year for a franchise that reached back-to-back Super Bowls in 2013 and 2014. And that despite the fact that this club was the winner of the NFC West with a 10-5-1 this season, opposed to being a wild card entry with a 10-6 mark a year ago.
Of course, that was a Seattle club that won six of its last seven contests and concluded the regular season with a 30-point win over the division champion Cardinals at Arizona. After opening 2016 with a 7-2-1 record, which included a 31-24 victory over the New England Patriots at Foxborough, the Seahawks split their final six contests and their defense looked extremely vulnerable in losses to the Packers at Lambeau Field (38-10) as well as at home to the Cards (34-31).
That’s not to say that this team should be counted out by any regards. For the most part, this is still one of the better defensive units in the league. For the first time since 2011, the Seahawks will not allow the fewest points in the NFL. But the club only allowed 32 offensive touchdowns in 16 games.
This year, the team will only go as far as a troubled offensive line can protect Russell Wilson, With the Seahawks averaging less than 100 yards per game on the ground, even more has been put on the fifth-year quarterback’s shoulder. Unfortunately, he’s spent far too much time this year on his back. Hence a little lack of confidence when it comes to expectations for this club.
Jan 1, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi (23) runs for a first down past New England Patriots outside linebacker Elandon Roberts (52) during the second quarter of an NFL football game at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
8. Miami Dolphins
10-6 (Wild Card)
No. 6 Seed in AFC
Following a 1-4 start, the Miami Dolphins finished 2016 with nine wins in their final 11 games to grab a playoff berth for the first time since 2008.
We are not here to focus on the negative, but it has been the two setbacks over that stretch that really stand out. We are referring to a 38-6 road loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 13, as well as Sunday’s 35-14 home setback to the New England Patriots.
What it really adds up to is just how will the Miami defense will fare this Sunday afternoon against the Pittsburgh Steelers and perhaps the playoffs in general? On offense, veteran quarterback Matt Moore has performed very efficiently in place of Ryan Tannehill. Running back Jay Ajayi has had a breakout year with 1,272 yards rushing and has been the catalyst of the team’s reversal of fortunes this year.
But the Dolphins are also giving up 140.4 yards per game on the ground. Despite the presence of Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh, the club has just 33 sacks and has allowed 30 touchdown passes in 16 games. As previously mentioned, those setbacks to Baltimore and New England stick out like sore thumbs. And this was also a squad that surrendered 598 total yards in a Week 16 victory over the Buffalo Bills at Orchard Park.
There is not a lot of playoff experience overall on this roster. But Adam Gase has pushed all the right buttons in his first season with the organization and is a viable NFL Coach of the Year candidate. If the defense can step up in the postseason, this could be an intriguing team. However, you have to show it before we can rank the Dolphins any higher at the moment.
Jan 1, 2017; Detroit, MI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) pumps his fist after the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Packers won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
7. Green Bay Packers
10-6 (NFC North champions)
No. 4 Seed in NFC
The Green Bay Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers took a page from Christopher Cross’ debut album. Think “Run Like the Wind.”
We are not taking about head coach Mike McCarthy’s turning ultra-conservative and relying on the ground attack. With a 4-6 record after 10 games, the chances of this club getting back to the playoffs for an eighth consecutive year looked bleak. Then there was talk of running the table and before you could say Cheese Whiz the Pack would wind up being NFC North champions for the fifth time in six years.
During the team’s six-game season-closing winning streak, Rodgers threw 15 touchdown passes opposed to zero interceptions. He has actually thrown 18 TD passes without a pick in his last seven contests. He finished 2016 with a league-best 40 scores through the air and was picked off only seven times. Those predicting that the two-time NFL MVP was in decline may find him in the running for a third award.
But for all of his exploits and the team’s hot run, Green Bay’s defense still has some major issues. The team lacks a consistent pass rush, with outside linebacker Nick Perry totaling 11 of the team’s deceptive 40 sacks. There is a lack of bodies at the cornerback position and that’s been a season-long problem. McCarthy has created the semblance of a running game but it’s far from consistent.
This was a team that has a lot of the same players that reached the NFC title game in 2014. But it’s also a Green Bay squad that has had problems winning playoff games at Lambeau Field in recent years. The Packers are hot but capable of cooling off quickly due to that defense.
Jan 1, 2017; Landover, MD, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) avoids the rush by Washington Redskins linebacker Preston Smith (94) during the second half at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
6. New York Giants
11-5 (Wild Card)
No. 5 Seed in NFC
Are we ready for another sequel to “The Eli Manning Story?”
All kidding aside, it seems like we have seen this before…kind of. The New York Giants arrive at the playoffs somewhat under the radar but with their resilient quarterback and an above-average defense. We saw it in both 2007 and 2011, when Tom Coughlin’s Giants frustrated the New England Patriots in Super Bowls XLII and XLVI.
What’s really interesting is the fact that Ben McAdoo’s Giants actually have a better win-loss record than either of those other New York clubs. The 2007 was a 10-6 wild-card entry and the ’11 squad was a 9-7 NFC East champion that allowed more points than they scored in the regular season.
Regardless, Big Blue is back in the postseason for the 2011 and a third installment of a clash with the Patriots is in the back of a lot of people’s minds and in the forefront of others. This New York defense is pretty formidable on defense, but the strength of this year’s unit is in cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, as well as strong safety Landon Collins.
As for Manning, he’s been spotty in 2016. He has weapons such as Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard. The team is trying to do a better job of running the football as of late but the offense in general has not been very reliable.
Still, the Giants do have more than a puncher’s chance to get to Houston on the first week of February. It starts with getting hot on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field, where the team has already lost earlier this season.
Jan 1, 2017; San Diego, CA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive back Daniel Sorensen (49) intercepts a pass as cornerback Marcus Peters (22) assists in defending San Diego Chargers wide receiver Isaiah Burse (89) during the second quarter at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
5. Kansas City Chiefs
12-4 (AFC West champions)
No. 2 Seed in AFC
A year ago, the Kansas City Chiefs overcame a 1-5 start by winning their final 10 regular-season games on the way to earning a playoff invitation.
This season, Andy Reid’s team was 2-2 and coming off a 43-14 prime time loss at Pittsburgh. The result was a 10-2 run, a 12-4 win-loss record and the team’s first AFC West title since 2010.
Yes, that’s 22 wins in their last 26 regular-season outings. And a year ago, the Chiefs won a postseason game for the first time since 1993.
It’s safe to say Reid has pushed the right buttons for quite a spell when it comes to this team. That despite injuries that have robbed the team of some of its bigger names this year. And this club has that one thing that has proved to be very valuable in this day and age of very few stifling defensive units.
It’s the gift of grab. Last season, the team came away with 29 takeaways. Kansas City has been even better this year in forcing 33 turnovers. Veteran quarterback Alex Smith remains efficient and Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce (85 receptions for 1,125 yards and 4 touchdowns) has enjoyed a monster year.
But rookie wide receiver/kick returner Tyreek Hill is the 2016 version of Forrest Gump. He has a total of 12 touchdowns via the ground (3), air (6) and on combined kick returns (3).
This is a very dangerous squad that got a taste of postseason success last year. Like the barbecue in Kansas City, these Chiefs want a second and possibly third helping.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
11-5 (AFC North champions)
No. 3 Seed in AFC
There is obviously not a lot to draw from the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 27-24 overtime win over the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Other than the fact that Mike Tomlin’s backups are a pretty talented bunch.
On Sunday afternoon, the AFC North champions will put their current seven-game winning streak on the line against the Miami Dolphins in the first round of the playoffs. The Steelers were the first victim of the Dolphins’ revival tour this season. A 30-15 victory by Adam Gase’s club in Week 6 at Miami launched a six-game winning streak.
But the focus here are the Steelers, who will have their potent offensive trio in quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell. The latter will be making his NFL postseason debut and all three of these standouts will be well-rested after sitting out the regular-season finale.
The last six times we saw Bell, he was busy amassing an astonishing 1,094 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns in those contests. That came on 191 touches (161 carries, 30 receptions) and featured 835 yards on the ground and another 239 yards through the air.
Pittsburgh’s young defensive unit is making strides and has played much better as of late. But it’s also very capable of being exposed by a good offensive unit. Hence keeping Bell on the field as much as possible. Will that formula be enough to get this team to Houston and in another Super Bowl? It won’t be easy but these Steelers are quite capable.
Jan 1, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Mohamed Sanu (12) reacts with wide receiver Julio Jones (11) and quarterback Matt Ryan (2) after catching a touchdown pass against the New Orleans Saints during the first half at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
3. Atlanta Falcons
11-5 (NFC South champions)
No. 2 Seed in NFC
They scored points seemingly at will this season, a big departure from head coach Dan Quinn’s first season with the club. And we are talking an attack that has put up historical figures when it comes to this franchise.
The Falcons are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2012. For the 20th time in NFL annals, a team has scored at least 500 points in a season. Led by MVP candidate Matt Ryan, the Atlanta Falcons have put 540 points on the board and the club has reached the end zone a total of 63 times – 58 by the offensive unit. Quinn’s club has closed the season with a four-game winning streak and has totaled 33-plus points in each of those victories. All told, Atlanta has amassed 30-plus points in 11 outings in 2016.
But just how long this team remains in the postseason is the biggest question. Ryan has thrown 38 touchdown passes this year but been picked off only seven times. An efficient attack has been balanced all season and the club has committed only 11 turnovers in 16 contests. But the team’s defense is still very worrisome, giving up 371.2 yards per game and 46 offensive touchdowns this season.
However, give these Falcons their due. They have found a way to mask their shortcomings enough to win 11 games. This is an extremely confident team that also has an extra week to gets some things shored up. Having the NFL sack leader in outside linebacker Vic Beasley (15.5) is a big positive.
There’s a lot to be said about consistency and the Falcons epitomize that attribute this season.
Dec 26, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten (82) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Dez Bryant (88) during the game against the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
2. Dallas Cowboys
13-3 (NFC East champions)
No. 1 Seed in NFC
Despite a season-ending 27-13 loss at Philadelphia in which Dak Prescott, Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez all saw action at quarterback, the Dallas Cowboys were a mere smidge away from grabbing the top spot in the rankings.
Many will focus on the fact that this team dropped two games to the same team (New York Giants) and are still being led by a rookie quarterback. Fair or not, the team’s defensive unit remains suspect and too often we have seen that shortcoming rear its ugly head. In fact, the Cowboys allowed 20-plus points in each of their last three games.
But make no mistake. Led by Prescott, NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott and the best offensive line in the game, Jason Garrett’s club has executed that tried and true formula all season of being patient with the ground attack, setting up play-action passing and keeping the defense off the field as much as possible.
Dallas averages over 30 running plays per contest and is totaling 149.8 yards per game on the ground. The Cowboys also averaged 31:41 when it comes to time of possession, leaving opponents little time with the football. Rod Marinelli’s defenders are giving up only 83.5 rushing yards per game.
Still, there are indeed shortcomings. The pass rush has produced an ordinary 36 sacks and 25 of the 34 offensive touchdowns allowed by the club have come through the air. And if the Cowboys can’t win a playoff game and reach the NFC title game for the first time since 1995, this may the main reason why. Those looking for jitters from Prescott and/or Elliott may be quite disappointed.
Jan 1, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount (29) runs toward Miami Dolphins cornerback Tony Lippett (36) during the second quarter of an NFL football game at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
1. New England Patriots
14-2 (AFC East champions)
No. 1 Seed in AFC
They own the league’s best record at 14-2 this season. They are tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers with the longest active winning streak at seven straight victories. The franchise is making its eighth consecutive playoff appearance.
We’re just scratching the surface as to why the New England Patriots are the definitive No. 1 team in our postseason power rankings. It’s easy to just throw all the accolades in the direction of ageless quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick. But there is plenty to be concerned about if you have to face this club over the next few weeks.
Most significantly, the Patriots allowed the fewest points in the league this season. It’s a feat the franchise hasn’t achieved since 2003, when they captured their second Lombardi Trophy. Led by LeGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis and James White, the team is much-improved when it comes to running the football. And by the way, that Brady guy has connected for 28 touchdowns and been picked off only twice in his 12 appearances this season.
The Patriots have some formidable challenges ahead, especially when you consider how the Kansas City Chiefs and Steelers are playing these days. But a trip to Foxborough come playoff time is never an easy task. There are plenty of playoff-tested performers on this club and Brady and Belichick are legends when it comes to the postseason.
It’s no guarantee that this club will make a seventh Super Bowl appearance since 2001. But who would bet against the Pats at the moment?
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