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NFL Predictions: Week 1 Picks and Predictions

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The NFL season is officially here, and it’s safe to say we’re all incredibly stoked about football returning to our television screens this week. Whether you’ll be a game this weekend, kicking back with buffalo wings and nachos at home, or simply keeping track on your mobile devices (or next-day newspapers, I love the print media industry!), you’ll be absorbing 16 games of excitement very soon.

With that said, it feels like the perfect time for the first batch of NFL predictions, week one edition. So settle in, kick back and feel free to debate.

These picks are for entertainment purposes.

This column is an enjoyable write, and by no means will these picks be held to any standard other than mere “dinner table discussion” with a hope that they don’t terribly disappoint. But if they do, it’s really no big deal. NFL football is back, folks. And that’s all that really matters.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos, 8:30 p.m. ET, Thursday on NBC

The NFL hit a home-run with the scheduling of this game. If this matchup doesn’t get mega viewership, I’m not sure which one will.

It’s incredibly difficult to pick against Denver here, especially when you consider that they’re once again one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. There are skill position players aplenty, with potential dominant performances at the point of attack. Forget about quarterback play — any team that can win with an older Peyton Manning can win with Trevor Siemian.

Ultimately, this is Cam Newton’s team in Cam Newton’s league. He’s the poster boy for the NFL for good reason. This year, with the addition of a healthy Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina might just own the most well-oiled offensive attack in the NFL. A new influx of youth in the secondary (James Bradberry, Daryl Worley) provides a particularly interesting challenge, but they’ll receive a favorable matchup in Siemian and Co.

Carolina wins, 23-20, with a statement victory on the road to start the year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

This isn’t the flashiest game of the week, but it’s one with plenty of worth-watching NFC South storylines.

On the Tampa Bay side, the secondary performances of top trio Alterraun Verner, Brent Grimes and rookie Vernon Hargreaves will be critical to pulling off a win on the road. Both Grimes and Hargreaves have question marks attached heading into the matchup, and having to battle against a very legitimate Atlanta receiving corps won’t help chances at shutdown games.

Aug 11, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter in a game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. The Philadelphia Eagles won 17-9. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

If the Buccaneers can win in the trenches, chances of victory in this game skyrocket. The weapons at the disposal of Jameis Winston are plenty talented enough to match whatever Atlanta has to offer in terms of points scored. The Falcons defense is still very vulnerable – with the impressive balance of Dirk Koetter’s offense, Tampa can find a groove with lengthy, sustained drives.

At the end of the day, this one should provide a tight divisional matchup. If the Falcons can run behind Alex Mack and get the duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman meaningful touches, they’ll have a chance to win a tight battle. However, the balance of Tampa Bay’s roster is too potential-filled to pick against.

Tampa Bay wins, 30-26, led by a solid performance from Jameis Winston.

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

Isn’t it amazing how the entire landscape of a team’s NFL season can shift with one rep in practice? It’s safe to say Minnesota isn’t the happiest place to be a football fan right now.

Regardless of the Teddy Bridgewater situation, life must go on for Mike Zimmer and the Vikings; for this week, it appears that life will be led by Shaun Hill, who is in line for this Week One start against a Titans defense that has been allowing big plays throughout preseason play.

Aug 18, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Shaun Hill (13) passes against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at CenturyLink Field. Minnesota defeated Seattle, 18-11. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Sure, they’re exhibition games, but it’s worth noting that Dick LeBeau’s group has had hiccups early on. It’ll be important to be sharp on Sunday, not overlooking Minnesota’s QB problem.

On paper, you’d imagine Hill’s task will be fairly straightforward against Tennessee. But with less than two weeks to prepare for a regular season NFL start and attempting to mesh with a group of very young receivers, the blueprint becomes a bit more difficult in the passing game, perhaps an advantage as the difficult situation could force-feed Adrian Peterson even more touches. And while the Titans defense against the rush is no joke, it’s hard to believe they’ll be able to stifle Peterson and a very talented Jerrick McKinnon all afternoon long.

Tennessee should keep this one close, but a lack of firepower on their offense is noteworthy. If Hill can rely on the running game and Norv Turner can find a way to get his talented receivers in space, there’s no reason to believe Minnesota can’t pick up a win sans Teddy Bridgewater.

Minnesota wins a sneaky exciting game, 24-17.

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

This game might be a rough one and consequently, a very difficult matchup to break down and predict. Especially in week one, you might as well flip a coin here.

If the pesky Cleveland defense shows up, they have a chance to win this game. If the surprisingly OK Robert Griffin III shows up, they have a chance to win this game.

Sep 1, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz works out prior to a game against the New York Jets at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

If both of those factors mesh and Cleveland builds the perfect storm heading into Philadelphia, anyone would be inclined to give them the edge. Unfortunately, with Cleveland’s track record, it’s difficult to know what to expect.

That’s not to say the Browns don’t have the ability to win football games this year, because they absolutely do. But it doesn’t take away the fact that Philadelphia has the more talented team and more upside heading into this one. Carson Wentz doesn’t have to be perfect, he just has to be good enough. Admittedly though, that’s easier said than done. 

At home, against a Cleveland offense that has not a speck of identity, Philadelphia gets the slight edge. There’s always the chance that Cleveland spoils the Eagles’ opening weekend, but it’d take a well-rounded performance on a level that doesn’t seem to be in the cards to start the year.

Philadelphia gets their first win of the year with a tight victory, 26-20.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

Here’s one of the best games of the weekend. Two potential AFC playoff teams in an immediate in-conference test to begin the year. Grab that big bucket of popcorn.

The most important matchup to watch is undoubtedly the loaded Jets defensive front against Cincinnati’s offensive line. Both are extremely talented, but Todd Bowles’ group seems particularly ready to begin the season with a statement.

Sep 21, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis (24) can not come up with an interception against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. New York Jets defeat the Indianapolis Colts 20-7. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Sure, the Darrelle Revis/A.J. Green matchup will capture the headlines, but the true test lies within the Bengals’ ability to create lanes for a running game that they’ll desperately need to have success in 2016. They’ll have no better test than facing the Jets on the road.

Offensively, it’d be encouraging for the Jets to establish the run game early and often. The capabilities in the passing game are obvious, but setting the tone by giving all of their backs unique touches will be crucial. They won’t always have to win the battle at the line of scrimmage, rather keeping Cincinnati on their toes with various looks and schemes. To amount rushing yardage against the Bengals defense, they’ll want to get creative.

Even at home, winning this one would be a slight upset for Gang Green. They certainly have the pieces in place to pull it off – it’ll be a matter of executing distinct game plans on both sides of the ball.

The Jets find a way to rely on tough defense and get the win, 20-19.

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

What’s great about this particular week of matchups is the ability for so many visiting teams to win important Week One games on the road. With the Raiders, that theme is no different.

Obviously, watching this game for the duo of Derek Carr and Amari Cooper is a primary reason it’ll make for a great view. Those two, along with an improved offensive line that has high expectations, should put up very fantasy-friendly numbers throughout the season.

September 1, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Troymaine Pope (26) runs with the football against Oakland Raiders defensive back Dewey McDonald (35) during the fourth quarter at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Stepping back and taking a look at the picture of this game as a whole, there might be no better opportunity this year for Carr and his offense to turn it on early and never look back.

The Saints secondary is still a potential massive problem. Reports out of camp have been positive, but there’s just no way of telling if the likes of P.J. Williams and Sterling Moore can step up and provide an above-average presence of youth.

No matter how many points the offense managed to put up in 2015, the potential gaping holes in the secondary provide the opposition with a drive-by-drive opportunity to put up big plays leading to six. Though seemingly improved, that worry carries into this year, especially in this particular matchup.

The Raiders score early and often to get the win, 33-24.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

If it weren’t for a game that we’ll discuss a bit later, this game would be the winner of Lock of the Week. Top to bottom, it doesn’t appear this one will be terribly competitive.

Very simply, Kansas City enters as the clear-cut favorite and quite frankly, the more talented team. Even with several key offseason additions on offense, the Chargers are too youthful and inexperienced to be considered contenders alongside the Chiefs in 2016.

Aug 28, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; San Diego Chargers running back Melvin Gordon (28) during a preseason game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Chargers 23-10. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Offensive line play is expected to improve and Melvin Gordon appears primed for a touch-heavy season, but that won’t negate the fact that there’s little consistency or firepower built up in the entire offense. Combine a shaky offense with a stout Kansas City defense and a winning formula doesn’t quite add up.

The Chiefs offense is far from dazzling, but it’s unlikely that they’ll need to score an obscene amount of points to capture a home win here. As long as they stick with a steady diet of rushing attempts with their superb group of backs, regular yardage won’t be a problem. Alex Smith should make more-than-a-game-manager plays as per usual, comfortably leading KC to a cruising start in front of the Arrowhead faithful.

Kansas City rolls here, 28-17.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

Here’s another coin flip game, solely for the level of unknown on both sides. Injuries haven’t been kind to either squad, setting up what should be an entertaining Sunday afternoon fight.

Joe Flacco is back healthy for Baltimore with seemingly no lingering effects from last year’s mid-season torn ACL. Combine that with Steve Smith Sr. and Dennis Pitta likely back from injury, and there’s a very solid chance that Flacco puts up yet another patented solid M&T Bank Stadium performance. Few quarterbacks are better in the confines of their own home.

Aug 20, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills assistant head coach/defense Rob Ryan (left) and head coach Rex Ryan on the field before the game against the New York Giants at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Unfortunately for the Ravens, despite Buffalo’s array of defensive injuries, the Bills will undoubtedly keep things close on Sunday. The state of the Baltimore secondary (and defense as a whole) is a far cry from the days of the vaunted Raven defense.

Dean Pees’ group is still in a vulnerable state with youth aplenty; don’t be surprised to see Greg Roman have a good time exposing the weaknesses in the secondary early on. It’ll be up to him to properly utilize the incredible team speed on offense that Baltimore should struggle to contain.

This should come down to a possession or two in the fourth quarter, tossing it up to any number of factors. Because they’re at home with healthy players returning across the board, the Ravens get the slight edge.

Baltimore wins on a late Justin Tucker field goal, 27-26.

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

Two teams, two more question marks to start the year. Isn’t the unknown of the onset of the NFL season so great?

On Chicago’s side, all eyes have to be on the potential improvements on both sides of the football. Offensively, it’ll be intriguing to see how Bobby Massie, Josh Sitton and the results of the complete overhaul of the front five performs. They have no easy task in Houston’s defensive rotation.

Aug 11, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Kevin White (13) during the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

In terms of sheer point-scoring potential, the edge has to be easily given to Houston. Both Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller should be phenomenal additions to a steady group already in place on the Texans offense.

All in all, there’s little doubt that they’ll boost the overall numbers this season. In this particular matchup, the Chicago defense simply seems overmatched. They’ve added pieces to help improve versatility, but the Houston offense appears too deep to not be able to match what Chicago is expected to put up on the other side.

This might end up being a sloppy trial-run with plenty of moving parts on the offensive side of the ball, but the depth across the board should help Houston out-duel Chicago in the home opener.

Texans grab a win in Osweiler’s debut, 27-21.

Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

Here’s a classic case of the excitement of a team’s re-build. In recent years, this game would hardly be considered to be watchable. But courtesy of Gus Bradley’s dedication to the cause in Jacksonville, there’s a real chance that they pull off this upset.

For the Jags, it starts with the sheer number of young playmakers on both sides of the ball. Not enough to have one of the most talented receiving corps in the game, Jacksonville added Chris Ivory to the mix to help balance out the attack for Bortles and the young offensive line.

Jul 29, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Hurns (88) and wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) walk toward the locker room during training camp at Practice Fields at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The duo of Ivory and T.J. Yeldon might cut into Bortles’ fantasy football numbers, but the ability to run effectively will help the third-year quarterback become even more stable. Expect to see a well-oiled balance of run and pass.

Green Bay’s task is fairly straightforward: stop the Jacksonville passing attack from the big play. The Packers secondary is more than capable of limiting Bortles and Co. to a pedestrian day – and if they do, they’ll have the edge. It’s no secret what Mike McCarthy’s offense is capable of … with Jordy Nelson back in action, they’ll handle their duties against Jacksonville.

It’ll be about Green Bay’s ability to handle the totality of the opposing playmakers. If they keep the Jaguars attack under control (easier said than done) the offense should have no problem leading them to a Week One victory.

Packers continue to perform, win 31-23.

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, CBS

For many reasons, this game takes on the role of Lock of the Week. Two teams, two entirely different season outlooks.

First, it’s important to understand that the NFL is full of unbelievable storylines and it would be less than shocking to see Miami pull off this upset. This lock isn’t to say that the Dolphins are completely void of talent, rather that Seattle’s squad is just that good. As they’ve been in years past, Seattle enters the season as a clear favorite to take the NFC crown.

Aug 19, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Miami Dolphins defensive end Mario Williams (94) and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (93) during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys defeat the Dolphins 41-14. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

There’s plenty of competition, but Pete Carroll’s team has stayed steady and even improved across the board. To open the season, it’ll be crucial for the offensive line play to hold up in order to prove that Seattle is once again the real deal. Germain Ifedi went down with a high ankle sprain, so Ndamukong Suh could have a big day.

Miami’s chances come on defense and a potential ability to keep the game close by stopping the run. Kiko Alonso’s Dolphin debut will be of great intrigue, as will be the team’s pass-rush ability across the board. In total, they have the ability to be extremely disruptive.

But the prospect of Russell Wilson and his band of point-scorers on offense lighting up the Miami secondary is too great to pick against.. Considering the depth of Seattle’s pass-catchers compared to the Dolphins’ lack of shutdown threats on defense, it’s easy to see how the Hawks can expose Miami on Sunday.

Seattle’s passing attack steals the show at home, Seahawks win 33-17.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

Oh, how this game suddenly becomes the potential must-watch game of the week… Very simply: let Dak-mania begin.

The level of excitability for this game is already helped by the fact that these two are very evenly-balanced within the NFC East – add in the Dak Prescott factor and this one is quickly thrusted into major national spotlight, for good reason.

Sep 1, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham (13) in the first half against the New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Hauser-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately though, too many times the focus ends up on quarterback play rather than the fundamental matchups that decide the final score. Sure, Dallas will need to game-plan slightly differently with Prescott at the helm, but it shouldn’t change the theme of their ultimate goal: win at the point of attack and feed the ball to Ezekiel Elliott.

This shouldn’t be viewed as a Prescott coming-out party, rather Elliott’s day to wreak havoc on a divisional opponent.

The truth is, even sans Romo, the Dallas offense has the ability to do damage. And while the numbers and projections don’t always win ballgames, they can be very good indicators on what to expect in terms of game flow. What we know is simple: both offenses can and will score points.

At the end of the day, this game may come down to splash plays when it counts the most on defense … given the fact that the Giants’ defense should be significantly improved, it’s difficult to not give them the edge, even on the road.

Big additions in Janoris Jenkins and Olivier Vernon should provide much-needed help, while Damon Harrison brings much-needed run-stuffing potential. Dallas will keep this game close, but the steps the Giants have made to improve the defense can’t be ignored.

Giants step up defensively in the clutch, win 28-24.

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts, 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, FOX

You’ll find many folks who will yawn their way through this preview, but plenty of intriguing storylines exist for these two teams. In reality, the first two or three of each of these two teams’ seasons will prove crucial in deciding their ultimate fates.

Detroit’s new-look offense should be on full display in this one, giving fans a look at an improved, still evolving attack. Ameer Abdullah and Marvin Jones should steal the show in terms of playmaking ability, matching up nicely against a Colts defense that is still suspect.

Sep 1, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) against the Cincinnati Bengals in a preseason NFL football game at Paul Brown Stadium. The Colts won 13-10. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The Lions can spread the ball to an impressive array of targets in 2016, leaving it up to their offensive line — led by fresh tackle Taylor Decker — to create opportunities. If the offensive front holds up, Detroit has a chance to compile massive totals.

The same can undoubtedly be said for Indianapolis’ offense, which matches up quite well with Detroit’s secondary. Expect plenty of tests from Rob Chudzinski’s attack, one that is plenty capable of flying down the field and cashing in on deep balls.

With overwhelming ability on both offenses matching up against two questionable defenses, we might end up seeing the shootout of the week with this clash. Fortunately for viewers, whoever possesses the ball last might be the team coming out on top.

Lions surprise Indianapolis in an upset, win a barn burner 34-31.

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals, 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, NBC

Be prepared to be groggy on Monday the 12th. Sunday Night Football is back, and staying up for this one won’t be difficult. Even without Tom Brady on the field, this is a clear must-watch.

First, it’s evident that Arizona’s roster might just be the most impressive in the game of football. Across the board, there’s a brilliant blend of young and old — a roster consisted of veteran leadership and new spark plugs.

Dec 27, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson (31) runs with the ball against the Green Bay Packers during the first half at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

New England will undoubtedly have a difficult time countering the looks that Arizona has to offer, especially adding second-year back David Johnson into the mix. He’s the best back in the league that nobody talks about … giving him at-least 20 to 25 touches on Sunday night will be critical to Arizona’s success. Fortunately, they have enough balance on offense to throw the kitchen sink if needed.

While the New England defense will certainly bend, there’s reason to believe they won’t hold tough and give Jimmy Garoppolo a chance to contend late in the game. The Patriots running game is very formidable and quiet weapons in Martellus Bennett and Chris Hogan should play big in certain spots. If the defense forces turnovers, the Patriots offense has enough ability to cruise downfield on a scaled-down game plan.

Unfortunately, it’s difficult to envision the Cardinals defense allowing much, if any, sustained success through the air on Sunday night. The talent in the back-end of the Arizona secondary is borderline unfair. If they’re able to force regular 3rd-and-6+’s, this game shouldn’t be close.

There’s a reason the Cardinals are considered, by many, favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. If all goes as planned, it should be smooth sailing for their season opener.

Bruce Arians’ squad captures win in Sunday night-cap, 29-21.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins, 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, ESPN

Our first Monday Night football game of the year features two potential playoff squads, and one possible Super Bowl squad.

Here, it’s important to understand the value of what Washington and Jay Gruden brings to the table. The Redskins don’t have a flashy makeup to the squad, and they won’t win games by being the most exciting team on the field in 2016.

Aug 26, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) celebrates after a touchdown with wide receiver Antonio Brown (84) during the first half of a preseason game against the New Orleans Saints at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

What they do offer is an improved defense with very underrated weapons on offense, including running back Matt Jones, who should receive the bulk of the carries against Pittsburgh’s defense if he’s ready to roll.

The heart of Washington’s roster has the ability to take their game to the next level; if they find themselves in a tight game, their style of football bodes well toward a tightly-fought win.

Of course, they’ll need to stop Pittsburgh’s quick-strike offense, one that shouldn’t face much of a drop-off compared to years past. DeAngelo Williams has proven his worth behind the suspended Le’Veon Bell, able to adequately fill in and provide valuable touches. In this one, it’ll be important for the Steelers to utilize that rushing attack to pair with the famous passing game. Roethlisberger will make the big plays, it’ll be up to the establishing of the running game to keep Washington guessing.

In the upset, Washington captures a home win in primetime, 26-24.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers, 10:20 p.m. ET on Monday, ESPN

Ah, Case Keenum against Blaine Gabbert in a fight for the ages. A perfect late-night dessert to finish up what should be a wildly entertaining week one of NFL football…

All jokes aside, this game is relevant for several reasons. First, on Los Angeles’ side, it’ll be an opportunity for Todd Gurley to prove that his rookie season was no aberration in a game where he could see upwards of 25-30 touches.

Sep 1, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly looks on from the sidelines during the second half of the game against the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. San Francisco won 31-21. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

He’ll have to do it behind a young offensive line against a stout San Francisco front, providing a perfect early matchup to set the tone for his sophomore season.

In the 49ers camp, it’s all about the performance of Blaine Gabbert and his ability to secure the starting QB job moving forward. “Kaeper-gate” rolls on, but this team is Gabbert’s, for better or worse.

Weapons aren’t exactly abundant in this offense, so it’ll be notable to see just how Chip Kelly utilizes the new depth at the receiver position behind Torrey Smith and Quinton Patton.

With the unknown at the quarterback spots, it’s hard to say how this will shake out. But even on the road, Los Angeles gets the slight edge thanks to a running game and a talent-heavy front seven.

Rams wrap up the weekend with a win, 19-14.

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