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NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds: How to bet Giants-Vikings

Updated Mar. 16, 2023 3:36 p.m. ET

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The New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings played a thriller when the teams met on Christmas Eve. What's in store for Sunday's Super Wild Card Weekend tilt?

The Vikings won 27-24 on Greg Joseph's franchise-record 61-yard field goal as time expired. Joseph's field goal is tied for 15th-longest in NFL history. Minnesota leads the all-time series 18-12, winning the past four contests since 2015.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Giants-Vikings game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

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New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (4:40 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Point spread: Vikings -3 (Vikings favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Giants cover)
Moneyline: Vikings -162 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.17 total); Giants +125 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 48.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

The Giants made us a lot of bread this year.

New York (13-4 against the spread) was the best NFL team against the spread and the old adage says that good teams win and great teams cover. Big Blue also flew way over their season win total, which was Over/Under 6.5 at FOX Bet.

But sometimes you gotta know when to flip.

Minnesota finished with a 13-4 record and most bettors still think they’re phonies. Are the Vikings good enough to win a Super Bowl? Probably not. But can they dispatch Daniel Jones and an average Giants' offense in the raucous Death Star? Absolutely.

Remember, these two teams met in the regular season in late December and the Vikings closed as a 4.5-point home favorite. So you can now buy even lower on a team that nobody respects to essentially hold serve at home.

Count me in.

PICK: Vikings (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

The Vikings have the worst defense of any playoff team this year. But there is a specific way to attack them. 

Minnesota’s defense ranks 16th vs. runs but 26th vs. passes. 

Over the second half of the season, the Vikings pass defense ranks above average on third downs but are dead last on early downs. 

And the 31st-ranked team, the Bears, is nearly closer to the NFL average than they are to the 32nd-ranked Vikings. 

Additionally, vs. early-down RB runs, the Vikings defense ranks top-10. They rank eighth in EPA/att (-0.11) and seventh in YPC (3.9). This, despite the fact that they play with the lightest box count in the NFL. 

As such, the way to attack the Vikings on early downs is through the air, trying to avoid third downs altogether but setting up third-and-short to run the ball when possible. 

As further proof, the Giants should look to stray from too many early-down runs: 

First, when these two teams met earlier this year, Saquon Barkley's -0.09 EPA/att on early-down runs vs. MIN in Week 16 was his third worst of the year. 

His only worse performances came vs. the Seahawks and Lions. 

But the way those teams slowed him down was by stacking the box.   

• Seahawks: 80% of runs were vs. 7-plus man boxes
• Lions: 83% of runs were vs. 7-plus man boxes

But the Vikings didn’t need to do that to slow down Barkley. They played with a 7-plus man box on only 46% of Barkley’s early down rushing attempts. And he still only recorded -0.09 EPA/att.   

On 13 early down rushes, Barkley’s longest rush was just seven yards, despite seeing his lowest average box count on the season since Week 1. 

Second, on early downs, Daniel Jones completed 82% of his pass attempts and averaged 8.5 YPA. It was his most efficient high-volume early-down passing day of his career based on those two metrics. He did throw one ill-advised interception in the fourth quarter, which hurt his EPA numbers. 

Third, Daniel Jones completed just 33% of his passes on third down, which ranked 33rd out of 34 qualifying QBs that week.  He was just 3-of-9 on third-down passes and averaged -0.30 EPA/att.   

The Giants are getting healthier on defense and could be a lively underdog. 

Are you ready to make an NFL bet? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your wagers.

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