National Football League

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds: How to bet Seahawks-49ers

Updated Jan. 14, 2023 3:00 p.m. ET

The NFL's hottest team will face a squad that needed help to earn the final playoff spot in the NFC when the San Francisco 49ers (13-4) play host to the Seattle Seahawks (9-8) on Saturday in a Wild Card Weekend matchup of NFC West Division rivals.

The 49ers are on a 10-game winning streak while the Seahawks lost five games out of six before winning their final two contests and – with a big assist from the Detroit Lions beating the Green Bay Packers – earned the final NFC playoff spot.

But the Seahawks do have an edge as they lead the all-time series 30-19 though the 49ers swept the two regular-season contests 27-7 and 21-13.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Seahawks-49ers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and experts picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Brock Purdy on the Niners' confidence finishing the regular season strong

San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy about the teams' confidence heading into the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Point spread: 49ers -9.5 (49ers favored to win by more than 9.5 points, otherwise Seahawks cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -500 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12 total); Seahawks +300 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 42.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

They’ve met two times this season, and the 49ers rolled in both games by a combined 48-20.

Seattle only got into the red zone twice against the 49ers defense. Seattle got lucky to sneak into the playoffs, as Geno Smith didn’t play well down the stretch, with multiple interception games at home against the Rams and Panthers. This will be his first playoff start (same for Brock Purdy of the 49ers) but you have to give a massive edge to the 49ers offense, which shredded Seattle for 6.2 yards per play last month in Seattle. And that was without Deebo Samuel (he’s back).

The Seahawks struggle to defend tight ends (George Kittle had two TDs in the last meeting), and they’ll also be without their leading tackler Jordyn Brooks, the 2020 first-round pick who is out for the season.

Seattle’s path to keeping this close is perhaps blitzing Purdy heavily and hope he makes mistakes, and then deploying a move-the-chains offense with Tyler Lockett (16 catches for 175 yards in two meetings) and then pray Kenneth Walker can find room against the No. 2 rushing defense in the NFL.

If you must bet the 49ers here, just know you’re paying a premium as they enter on a 10-game win streak and have covered seven of eight. Since 2001, teams that enter the playoffs on a 10+ game winning streak, they’re 2-13 against the spread.

PICK: 49ers (-9.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 9.5 points

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

San Francisco’s defense is a pass funnel. You want to pass early and often against them, as they rank as the NFL’s best run defense.

However, you want to throw the ball deep to attack their corners in coverage rather than underneath, as they have solid linebackers that assist in pass defense.

In fact, the 49ers have massive splits based on passing depth.

Against passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield, they rank 31st in EPA/att (+0.71) and 31st in success rate (54%).

But against passes thrown under 15 yards, they rank first in EPA/att (-0.10) and second in success rate (42%).

So we know that the 49ers are vulnerable deep, but the problem is, the Seahawks don’t attack there, particularly on the road.

On the road, Seattle throws 10-plus yards downfield at the 24th lowest rate in the NFL and 20-plus yards at the 26th lowest rate, where the 49ers are weak.

But they throw 1-9 air yards at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, where the 49ers dominate.

And that dichotomy has only been exacerbated to close the season.

Since Week 8, Seattle ranks 30th in percentage of passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield.

Against the 49ers in Week 15, despite it being a home game, the Seahawks threw only 6% of passes 15-plus yards downfield. The NFL average is 20%.

In both games vs. the 49ers this year, Geno Smith averaged just 4.6 air yards per throw compared to 8.0 air yards per attempt against everyone else this season. Just 2.7% of Smith’s throws in those games were 20 yards or further downfield compared to a 10.6% rate outside those games.

Simply put, Seattle’s offense of late does not attack the weak point of the 49ers defense.

They focus on short passes and runs, which the 49ers defense dominates against, ranking first in defending both.

This season, Seattle’s offense has ranked above average, but that has come vs. the NFL’s 10th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses.

And every time they step up in class to play a top-10 defense, they falter immensely, save for one breakout performance vs. the Saints defense which featured two fourth-quarter touchdowns after trailing 31-19:

7 points vs. No. 1 defense of SF
13 points vs. No. 1 defense of SF
16 points vs. No. 10 defense of TB
17 points vs. No. 7 defense of DEN
23 points vs. No. 6 defense of NYJ

Only one of those five was a true road game, as three were played in Seattle and one was at a neutral site.

I liked the first half Under at 21, as there is expected weather, projected to be rain, at times heavy, with periods of gusty winds reaching 25-30 mph. At 20.5, I’d still lean that way, but with less confidence.

Pick via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

This line feels a little steep.

San Francisco closed as a 3-point favorite at Seattle a month ago and now the Niners are laying double digits (currently 9.5) with a rookie quarterback? I can’t wrap my head around that adjustment and feel like oddsmakers are putting way too much stock into Brock Purdy’s white-hot ascension.

The postseason is still a different monster.

I’ve got the Niners coming out of the NFC so I’m obviously high on their potential, but I’m also not willing to lay this many points with a team that’s won 10 straight games. You’re paying such a high premium on San Francisco in the ever-important third meeting between these two squads.

Give me all those points with Pete Carroll’s feisty club.

PICK: Seahawks (+10 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to loser by fewer than 10 points (or win outright)

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