National Football League

NFL Week 1 picks: Why the Steelers could upset the Bills and win outright

Updated Sep. 15, 2021 1:54 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The lines have been up for months, and the hand-wringing over whether or not the preseason matters is over. Week 1 is here!

Lines have been moving all week, and that might continue right up until kickoff.

Here are my five favorite bets on the NFL slate for this weekend (with all odds via FOX Bet).

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Something to file away: There are six road favorites in Week 1, coming off a year where home-field advantage meant almost nothing. Granted, many of the stadiums were empty or only had a smattering of fans, but it'll still be interesting to see if the market has a strong correction if home dogs are barking come Sunday night.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Buffalo Bills

As we discussed earlier this week, you'll have to hold your nose if you're taking Pittsburgh here, given the Steelers' projections are bleak this season, and Buffalo has the feel of a Super Bowl contender.

Mike Tomlin's appeal as an underdog (38-19-2 ATS in his career) jumps out here. And remember, these two teams played in Week 14 last season. The Steelers were initially -2.5 favorites, but because COVID messed with the Steelers mid-season, their previous two games against Baltimore and Washington were moved, and Buffalo became a slight favorite at home.

Pittsburgh has four new offensive linemen this season, but otherwise, the rosters are very similar. Isn't a line move of eight points in such a short amount of time a bit of an overreaction?

The Steelers should have an improved running game with rookie Najee Harris, something they didn't have last season (especially against Buffalo's average run defense).

Might want to sprinkle some on the moneyline, too.

PICK: Pittsburgh +6.5 to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright) at FOX Bet

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs — over 55 total points scored

As I've written multiple times this offseason, I love the Browns this season. Nine of their first 11 opponents this year were .500 or below in 2020! But this is not the spot to bet them.

For starters, Andy Reid is 16-0 in September over the last four years (22-5 with KC). In September, Pat Mahomes is 10-0 in his career, with an astonishing 32 TDs and 0 interceptions. They've had eight months to stew over getting hammered by the Bucs in the Super Bowl, which was the first time his offense didn't generate a touchdown in Mahomes' career.

Also, the Browns may have seven new defensive starters, and that's not ideal going against the best QB in the NFL.

The thing is, I love the Browns' offense so much this season. They will score points to stay within striking distance of the Chiefs and top the inflated total of 55, up from 53.5.

PICK: Over 55 points combined points at FOX Bet

Denver Broncos (-3) at New York Giants

The most challenging part of writing about sports betting is that you can grab a number early in the week – say, Denver -2 – and then the number moves to three before you can get the piece of content up.

Now there's less of an edge with the Broncos favored by a field goal on the road in a game with the lowest scoring total on the board (42).

The plus is that Teddy Bridgewater is a covering machine: 35-14 in his career ATS, and an unbelievable 21-3 ATS on the road. Yes, that was with Minnesota and New Orleans, but he's got a terrific defensive unit behind him that will make life very difficult for turnover-prone Daniel Jones.

The Broncos' defense could have a similar rise to Washington's last season. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb are healthy, the linebackers are above average, and the secondary added Kyle Fuller and drafted Patrick Surtain.

This game feels like a low-scoring rock fight, where the first to 17 wins. Given how poor the Giants are on the offensive line, I like the Broncos to win and cover on the road.

This would become a significant play if it dips back down to -2.5.

PICK: Denver (-3) to win by more than 3 points at FOX Bet

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals — over 47 total points scored

The Super 6 article I wrote earlier this week outlines that this should be a high-scoring game that flies over the total.

The Bengals' top cornerback, Trae Waynes, is out, leaving journeyman Eli Apple to contend with Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson. The Bengals will have their hands full with one of the best receiving duos in the league unless they can generate a pass rush from free-agent addition Trey Hendrickson.

Will the Bengals play their talented pair of safeties in Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates in the box to slow down Dalvin Cook? That move would leave their less-skilled cornerbacks on islands.

Minnesota's defense is being rebuilt, too, with lots of promise but six new starters.

Slight lean to the Bengals because Joe Burrow will keep them in the game, throwing to Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Ja'Marr Chase.

PICK: Over 47 combined points at FOX Bet

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans — over 52.5 total points scored

This game features two teams that push the pace and have inferior defenses.

Arizona's weakness this season will be its secondary unless second-round pick Byron Murphy can turn into a No. 1, or Robert Alford can stay healthy (he hasn't played since 2018).

AJ Brown and Julio Jones should have massive games, but I'm curious to see how Ryan Tannehill does without OC Arthur Smith. With him, the pair was an over machine – 21-4-1 to the overs since becoming the starting QB.

The Arizona WRs – DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green – won't face much resistance against corners Janoris Jenkins (third team in four years) and Kristian Fulton (five career games played).

It feels like the last team with the ball wins kind of game. So, instead of taking the points with the Cardinals – an appealing side, despite many struggles in close games last season, losing three games by a field goal – the most significant edge is on the over (52.5). Even with the total going up from the open of 51.5.

PICK: Over 52.5 combined points at FOX Bet

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Indianapolis Colts

The bad news keeps coming for the Colts, who were hit hard in the preseason by injuries. It's unclear if they'll be without their best offensive lineman (Quenton Nelson) and top cornerback (Xavier Rhodes) for the home opener.

Rhodes graded out as the ninth-best cornerback last year per PFF, leaving Rock Ya-Sin, and 2020 seventh-round pick Bopete Keyes to contend with DK Metcalf on the outside.

The Seahawks' defense was atrocious last year early on but then feasted on bad QBs late to post respectable numbers. Even at a bad number – the Colts were favored by two when the lines were released months ago – look for Russell Wilson to continues his September hotness (7-1 record, 23 TDs, one INT in the last two years). I wouldn't be surprised if Seattle's offense hangs 30 on an overrated Colts defense.

PICK: Seattle (-3) to win by more than 3 points at FOX Bet

7.5-point TEASER

LA Rams -7.5 to pick
San Francisco -7.5 to pick
Kansas City -5.5 to +2
Green Bay -4 to +3.5

If you were with me for the 2021 playoff run, you know how lucrative betting teasers can be as long as you cross through the key numbers of 7 and 3.

That applies to the Rams against the Bears. Chicago's offensive line is in big trouble against the Rams front seven, and Andy Dalton will be a sitting duck in the pocket. This wager becomes somewhat of a dangerous play if Justin Fields replaces Dalton in the second half. Otherwise, the Rams offense should overwhelm a Bears defense that has incurred too many losses in the secondary the last few years.

In addition to bringing the Rams under a field goal, taking the 49ers under a field goal in Detroit will be one of the most popular teaser legs of the weekend.

Don't listen to anyone with concerns about a West Coast team traveling East: In the last 10 years, west coast teams traveling east for games in September are 21-9 ATS (70 percent).

Even though Kansas City's number has come down due to influential Cleveland money, you still go through the 4 and the 3 and get back to Reid getting two points in September at home.

Reid is 16-0 the last four years in September, and Mahomes is 10-0 with 32 TDs and 0 INTs in the month in his career.

Meanwhile, Cleveland has gone 0-15-1 in season openers since 2004. It doesn't mean anything; it's just a mind-blowing stat I thought you'd enjoy.

Lastly, I'm down on the Saints this year and wouldn't trust Jameis Winston to pick up my mail if I were on vacation. Taking the Packers to get more than a field goal at a neutral site rounds out the teaser.

Bet the 7.5-point teaser here at FOX Bet

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.

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