NFL Week 11 odds, predictions, best bets, including Dolphins, Cardinals to cover
It's Week 11 of the NFL, and the wheat is finally starting to separate from the chaff.
The weekend started off with a bang as the Cincinnati Bengals were defeated by the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night and, more importantly, lost Joe Burrow for the rest of the season, effectively knocking the Bengals out of playoff contention.
This opens up the AFC North for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, who square off against each other this week. Both teams are on two-game winning streaks and are competing for the second spot in the division.
Which side has the advantage? I've got you covered.
Elsewhere on the docket, the surprising Houston Texans are fighting for the playoffs, and rookie quarterback CJ Stroud has entered the MVP conversation.
Can they keep the good vibes rolling as a decent favorite against the now-healthy Arizona Cardinals?
I'm 31-24 on the season and itching to give you my favorite plays for the week, so let's keep it going.
Here are my best bets for Week 11.
All times ET
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Raiders are hot! Fire the coach, change the quarterback, and presto, Las Vegas has beaten Daniel Jones/Tommy DeVito and then Zach Wilson … at home.
Now, they have a road trip to a rested Miami team that will be as healthy as they have been all season on defense. Besides trying to move Davante Adams into the slot away from Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, I’m not sure where the Raiders have an edge.
I bet this at 12.5 and 13, and this line has ballooned to -13.5 because bad teams that have gone to Miami have gotten blown out (Broncos, Giants, Panthers, Patriots).
If you feel compelled to back the Raiders, I’d look at the first quarter or first half, as teams coming off a bye have largely been sleepy this season.
PICK: Miami (-13) to win by more than 13 points
Browns vs. Steelers, Dolphins vs. Raiders best bets, predictions, odds
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET CBS)
The Steelers have befuddled me all season.
I’ve lost backing them vs the 49ers, Texans, and Jaguars, but I loved them coming into this season.
They did cover for me against the Raiders and Ravens, but I still do not understand them.
They’re the first team in over 70 years to have a winning record despite getting outgained in the first nine games, and they’ve got a -26 point differential!
Their 26-22 win at home over the Browns in Week 2 was extremely lucky, as they only had nine first downs, were outgained by 150+ yards and didn’t get to the red zone once.
Now, they face rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who was overwhelmed in his first start vs Baltimore. The difference here is that DTR has known all week he’s starting this one. Last time, he didn’t get word he was starting until hours before kickoff.
Rookie QBs are 5-28 SU against Mike Tomlin, but I’m going to back the Cleveland defense here at home.
First to double digits wins?
PICK: Cleveland (-1) to win by more than a point
NFL MVP Odds: is Texans’ CJ Stroud a legitimate contender?
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans (1 p.m. ET CBS)
This one is tricky to handicap, as everyone will want to back C.J. Stroud as one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league.
But Houston has been favored three times this year and is 0-3 ATS in those games, including two outright losses. And It would have been three if not for a miracle drive against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Kyler Murray and James Connor returning helped Arizona’s offense look impressive against Atlanta. With the full complement of weapons, this week should go even better against the below-average Texans defense.
The biggest concern here is that Houston coach Demeco Ryans should scheme up a smart game plan because he is very familiar with the Cardinals and Kyler Murray from his time in San Francisco. Murray had one rushing yard during their 2021 meeting.
PICK: Arizona (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 points (or win outright)
Does Justin Fields still have a future with Bears after 2-2 record without him?
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET, FOX and FOX Sports App)
No line has moved more this week, with Chicago getting 10.5 early in the week before the line plummeted to +7.5 once Justin Fields was locked in as the starter.
Fields rushed for 132 yards and 147 yards in two games against the Lions last year (both losses), and despite lofty rankings for Detroit’s defense (10th in DVOA), some of those numbers are inflated by playing punchless offenses - Atlanta, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas.
The Bears defense has gotten healthy, and the Lions won’t be able to run for 175+ yards like they did last week.
I liked this much better at 9.5 and 8.5, and 8 is becoming a secondary key number, with coaches going for two.
The Lions are an interesting teaser leg, down to winning the game.
PICK: Bears (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points (or win outright)
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX Sports, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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