Close to winning the grand prize? Don’t trip on your way to the finish line and drink in these stone cold locks for your NFL Week 16 survivor pool.
Ye ol’ prognosticator was perfect yet again in NFL Week 15, going 4-0 with my survivor pool locks. The Seattle Seahawks rocked the Los Angeles Rams, the New York Giants squashed the Detroit Lions, the Baltimore Ravens escaped with a one-point win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Atlanta Falcons wrecked the San Francisco 49ers. Nobody’s perfect—except me, apparently.
Before we get into the NFL Week 16 picks, it’s my sworn duty to sway you from choosing any of these favorites:
Washington Redskins over the Chicago Bears: The Skins are favored by 3.5 points at Soldier Field, but Washington’s coming off a frustrating loss at home to the Carolina Panthers and Jordan Reed is a non-factor due to injury. The Bears pass defense is underrated and Chicago’s only three wins have come at home. Sure, the Bears have lost the past six meetings between these two teams, but Washington’s really banged up on defense. Therefore, Jordan Howard should have a field day, and Matt Barkley has played exceptionally well the past three games.
Oakland Raiders over the Indianapolis Colts: The Silver and Black are favored by 3.5 points at home, but with Indy clinging to their very slim playoff hopes, the Colts could stun Oakland. Confidence must be running high for the Shoe after they blew out the Vikings in Minnesota. Indianapolis has won the past four meetings and has a better away record (4-3) than at home. If the Colts offense limits turnovers, they should be in a position to win.
Pittsburgh Steelers over the Baltimore Ravens: The Steelers are favored by five points at home, but Baltimore’s won the past four meetings, including the Week 9 game earlier in the 2016 season. With the Ravens facing elimination, they’ll pull out all the stops.
Dallas Cowboys over the Detroit Lions: Dem Boys are favored by seven points at home on Monday night, but the Lions are in a fight for the NFC North title. Yes, the Giants defense foiled Detroit, but the Lions had their shots to score. Plus, they could get Theo Riddick back. Mix in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Anquan Boldin against a Dallas pass defense that’s 28th in the league and a Lions defense that’s 10th in points allowed and we could see a Matthew Stafford upset special in the Big D.
On to the certified, 100 percent guaranteed locks for your survivor pool in Week 16!
Dec 18, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) runs the ball against the Chicago Bears during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Green Bay Packers over the Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have a two percent chance of securing the sixth seed in the NFC after their 34-6 loss to the Colts in Week 15. I was on the fence about this game, thinking maybe Minnesota could rescue their season. Minnesota’s won the past two meetings and has a pass defense that’s third in the league in yards allowed. Adam Thielen is probable and Adrian Peterson is back.
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However, one gets the feeling there’s no gas left in Minnesota’s tank. They’re also facing a Packers run defense that’s 10th in the league, which means another underwhelming output from Peterson.
The Packers are on a roll having won four straight against tough teams: the Eagles, Texans, Seahawks, and Bears. The latter of those contests proved to a lot of doubters that Green Bay’s still got some magic in their cheeseheads. That last-minute bomb from Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson to set up the game-winning field goal looked awfully familiar and should have future opponents weary.
Green Bay also produced the most total yards and the highest rushing total of the season against the Bears as Ty Montgomery had a breakout game at running back, carrying 19 times for 162 yards and two touchdowns. That bodes well for the Pack heading into the Minnesota game as the Vikings run defense is average to below average. If the Lions lose this week to the Cowboys and Green Bay wins their final two, the Packers take the NFC North crown.
The Pack’s favored by 6.5 points at home.
Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports
New England Patriots over the New York Jets
If I had a million dollars, I would put all of it on the Pats not only covering the spread, but having backups in the game come fourth quarter. New England is an absolute juggernaut and the Jets are in shambles. Despite the fact Gang Green plays better on the road and the Patriots’ only two losses have come at home, it’s going to get lopsided in New England’s favor real quick. We might see something far more funny than the notorious Butt Fumble.
The Patriots have the NFL’s top defense in terms of points allowed. That unit has been incredibly hard to run against, but has allowed opponents to move the ball through the air. Meanwhile, the Jets are towards the bottom of the league in scoring offense, scoring defense, pass offense and pass defense. The sole bright spot for the Jets has to be undrafted rookie free agent Robby Anderson, who’s caught 10 balls for 179 yards over the past two weeks.
Dion Lewis has a breakout game against the Broncos, rushing for 95 yards on 18 carries. Tom Brady has the highest completion percentage of his career so far through 10 games. He’s tied for third in touchdown percentage and holds the lowest interception percentage of quarterbacks starting more than five games. The all-time winningest signal caller is also second in passing yards per attempt, second in quarterback rating and fourth in passing yards per game.
The Pats are favored by 16.5 points at home.
Dec 8, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) passes against the Oakland Raiders during a NFL football game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City Chiefs over the Denver Broncos
The Broncos have lost four of their last six games and have only an 11 percent chance of securing the sixth seed in the AFC. They’ll basically need to win their last two games and get some help to clinch a berth. Denver has the second toughest schedule in the league and the hardest slate in the AFC as they’ll face the first place Raiders following their stop at Arrowhead.
Denver let a win slip away in their Week 12 overtime loss to the Chiefs. Kansas City is 5-2 at home while Denver’s 4-3 on the road. Each of KC’s home losses came by just two points—a 19-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11 and a 19-17 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 15. Looking at the stat lines for the Chiefs, nothing really stands out except their turnover differential. Their +13 takeaway differential is second in the NFL.
Denver’s top two tight ends are questionable with concussions, which will further hurt their run game and red zone scoring efficiency. It’ll be up to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to carry the workload against a Chiefs pass defense that’s 19th in yards allowed and 14th in touchdowns given up.
Derek Wolfe will suit up after suffering a stinger. He and the rest of the Broncos pass rush ranks second in the league in sack percentage. They’ll face a Chiefs offensive line that’s been average in pass protection. On the other hand, KC should lean on Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Jeremy Maclin, and Spencer Ware to wear down Denver.
The Chiefs are favored by 3.5 points at home.
Dec 15, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) carries the ball in the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams during a NFL football game at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Seattle Seahawks over the Arizona Cardinals
The all-time series is tied up at 17-17-1. The last matchup was in Week 7, when the teams dueled to a 6-6 overtime tie. Arizona’s offense generated 23 first downs, 443 total yards, and more than 46 minutes of possession, but allowed four sacks. The Cardinals were only two games back at that point. Since then, the Redbirds have gone 2-5. Arizona has an away record of 1-5 while Seattle is undefeated at home.
The Seahawks defense has been nearly flawless at CenturyLink Stadium. They’re second in points allowed, seventh in passing yards allowed per game, and eighth in rushing yards allowed per contest. Though Earl Thomas was lost for the rest of the season, Michael Bennett has been listed as probable after tweaking his neck in the Thursday night win over the Rams in which he pumped his hips one too many times. The injury most affecting the Seahawks might be that of their punter Jon Ryan, who suffered a concussion after taking off with the ball up the gut and getting sideswiped.
The Cards are in a state of disarray. The team released Michael Floyd after his DUI prior to the Week 15 game against the Saints. Arizona’s offense has the third highest turnover percentage as they’re sixth worst in fumbles lost and sixth in interceptions thrown. Oddly enough, Seattle’s defense hasn’t forced many turnovers. David Johnson will have his hands full against a staunch Seahawks run defense.
For Arizona to have any chance, they’ll need to force Russell Wilson into turnovers. The Cardinals defense is 10th in the league in turnover percentage and Russell’s only two weeks removed from seeing his unit give the ball away six times.
All that said, Seattle should be amped to smother a division foe and put their stamp on the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
The Seahawks are favored by 8 points at home.
Nov 20, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) passes the ball in the first quarter the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Tennessee Titans over the Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s coming down to the wire in the AFC South between the Houston Texans and Titans who both have 8-6 records. The Houston Texans own the head-to-head tiebreaker and have a 49 percent probability of winning the division title while the Titans have a 47 percent shot. If Tennessee wins their final two games, including the season finale over the Texans, they’ll take the top spot in the division and most likely the No. 4 seed in the AFC.
The Titans have come a long way since starting the season 1-3. They’ve won their last three matchups including a hard fought three-point victory over the Broncos in Week 14 and an impressive two-point triumph over the Chiefs in Week 15. Those wins came even though Marcus Mariota had two of his worst games. Tennessee has also won their last two meetings with Jacksonville.
The winning recipe for Tennessee has been their 1-2 punch of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. The Titans run offense is third in the league in yards per game, sixth in touchdowns, and third in yards per attempt while the Jags run defense is 21st in yards allowed and 24th in touchdowns given up. It’ll be tough going for the Titans through the air as Jacksonville’s pass defense has been a top-10 unit in yards allowed.
Really it comes down to Jacksonville’s turnover differential. The offense is ranked 30th in giveaways and their defense is 31st in takeaways and dead last in turnover percentage.
The Titans are favored by 5 points on the road.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
San Diego Chargers over the Cleveland Browns
Is this the week the Browns break their 17-game losing streak dating back to the 2015 season? Probably not. The Bolts have won four of the past five meetings against Cleveland and lead the all-time series 15-8-1. They have a 2-5 record on the road and have lost their last three games after beating the Texans. However, the Chargers almost pulled off the upset at home over the Raiders in Week 15.
Melvin Gordon has been listed as questionable with a hip injury, so they’ll probably have to turn to Kenneth Farrow and Ronnie Hillman to shoulder the rushing attack. Even though their ground game is 26th in yards gained and 19th in touchdowns scored, they’ll go up against a Browns run defense that is next to last in yards allowed and 27th in touchdowns given up.
Tyrell Williams experienced concussion-like symptoms in Week 15, but should be okay to suit up against the Browns. The rookie sensation was held to only 20 yards on four catches against Oakland. Philip Rivers might have to turn to Dontrelle Inman, Travis Benjamin, and Hunter Henry again to see gains through the air. Though Cleveland’s defense has been average in passing yards allowed, they’ve been unable to force turnovers and are last in touchdowns allowed.
The Chargers are favored by 6 points on the road.
